Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals

Godfrey Garner, Patrick McGlynn

• Publisher: CRC Press
• Year: 2018
• Print ISBN: 9780815369400
• eBook ISBN: 9781351249331
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Management
• Index: Business

There are a limited number of intelligence analysis books available on the market. Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals is an introductory, accessible text for college level undergraduate and graduate level courses. While the principles outlined in the book largely follow military intelligence terminology and practice, concepts are presented to correlate with intelligence gathering and analysis performed in law enforcement, homeland security, and corporate and business security roles. Most of the existing texts on intelligence gathering and analysis focus on specific types of intelligence such as 'target centric' intelligence, and many of these, detail information from a position of prior knowledge. In other words, they are most valuable to the consumer who has a working-level knowledge of the subject.

The book is general enough in nature that a lay student—interested in pursuing a career in intelligence, Homeland Security, or other related areas of law enforcement—will benefit from it. No prior knowledge of intelligence analysis, functions, or operations is assumed. Chapters illustrate methods and techniques that, over the years, have consistently demonstrate results, superior to those achieved with other means. Chapters describe such analytical methods that are most widely used in the intelligence community and serve as recognized standards and benchmarks in the practice of intelligence analysis. All techniques have been selected for inclusion for their specific application to homeland security, criminal investigations, and intelligence operations.

• Uses numerous hands-on activities—that can easily be modified by instructors to be more or less challenging depending on the course level—to reinforce concepts
• As current and active members of the intelligence community, the authors draw on their decades of experience in intelligence to offer real-world examples to illustrate concepts
• All methodologies reflect the latest trends in the intelligence communities assessment, analysis, and reporting processes with all presented being open source, non-classified information
• As such, the non-sensitive information presented is appropriate—and methods applicable—for use for education and training overseas and internationally
• Military-style collection and analysis methods are the primary ones presented, but all are directly correlated intelligence to current concepts, functions and practices within Homeland Security and the law communities
• Covers the counterterrorism environment where joint operations and investigative efforts combine military, private sector, and law enforcement action and information sharing

The book will be a welcome addition to the body of literature available and a widely used reference for professionals and students alike.

1Defining Intelligence Analysis

Introduction

This course of instruction begins with defining intelligence analysis. Chapter 1 guides the student through multiple definitions, using several widely accepted examples as foundational information. First, by pointing out the various divergent perspectives on intelligence analysis, then by segregating the commonalities. To aid in instruction and minimize confusion, the book provides a broad definition for intelligence analysis for use through the remainder of the course. The intelligence analysis definition discussion ends with the introduction of the intelligence analysis process. The chapter then introduces, along with its origins, the purpose of intelligence analysis. This book continues, discussing other intelligence analysis processes and how they are used in business, product marketing, counter terrorism, crime prevention, military applications, and so on. This book does not, however, advocate for a single process, only that there should be a formal process. The United States military process for intelligence analysis will be the initial intelligence analysis process explained during this course of instruction. Later chapters cover the advantages, process structure, and applications of other (non-military–related) processes in more detail. After briefly discussing the analysis process framework, the chapter’s instructional materials identify and describe the analysis process starting point: Requirements. The instruction describes the three analysis requirement categories along with their subtypes, providing real-world examples of each supporting category subtype.

This chapter discusses some of the applications and more specific examples of crime analysis and military intelligence analysis integration in tackling the Homeland Security intelligence analysis problem set, including the hybrid threat.

What Is Intelligence?

What is intelligence? A basic definition of intelligence: The ability to obtain and apply knowledge and skills. Sounds simple, so why is it perceived to be so difficult and why are there so many varying definitions? Taking it a step further, it becomes more apparent. Each individual (or organization) has differing definitions of the terms abilities and apply. Later in the text we will investigate deeper into what is meant by “abilities to obtain” and how to better “apply” them.

What Is Intelligence Analysis?

Presently, there exists no broadly agreed upon definition for what intelligence analysis is or what it means to accomplish. The lack of a consensus definition for intelligence analysis stems from the fact that there is no agreement on the meaning of the term intelligence.

Intelligence subject matter experts (SMEs) tend to view the term through the microscope of their own specialties. The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) perspective is oriented more toward the wishes of policymakers, whereas the military’s definition aligns more with the desires of the commander. According to the Rand Corporation, a nonprofit research organization:

Intelligence analysis is the process by which the information collected about an enemy is used to answer tactical questions about current operations or to predict future behavior.1

Adding to our discussion of intelligence analysis, let us look now at origins and how intelligence analysis is segregated based upon differing aspects and characteristics.

Origins

Intelligence (the ability to obtain and apply knowledge and skills) has been around in its most basic form since prehistoric times. Humans have been collecting and applying knowledge and skills since they began to walk upright. The application of intelligence for military purposes soon followed. The following is an early historical example of military intelligence from ancient Egyptian times, specifically during the reign of Rameses II at the Battle of Kadesh (roughly 1274 BC).

Rameses II had collected information from two captured enemy spies on the size and disposition of Hittite enemy forces. Ramesses, having been misled by the spies, thought the Hittite forces were many days’ march away, and decided to make camp near Kadesh with the limited military force accompanying him. In reality, the Hittite forces and their allies were well within striking distance. When the Hittites attacked, Rameses was surprised and outnumbered. Only the opportune arrival of the remainder of the Egyptian chariot forces and infantry on the battlefield turned the tide of battle and saved Rameses from what would have been certain defeat.

One could argue the Hittites had better intelligence than the Egyptians. Perhaps this perception is partially correct. However, if that were the actual case, the Hittites should have known about the Egyptian reinforcements closing in on their position and picked a better opportunity to attack. However, this example clearly does show how critical intelligence properly applied can tip the scales in one’s favor.

Differences

To further compound the subject, intelligence analysis is often further classified or divided into:

• Terms of information or data sources (e.g., human, imagery, signals, open source)
• Who the intelligence product end users/consumers are (e.g., business intelligence, military intelligence, political intelligence)
• Number of sources used in production (e.g., single source, all source)
• Types (e.g., strategic, tactical, scientific/technical)
• Product usability aspects (e.g., actionable vs. nonactionable)

Commonalities

Even though the definition is unclear, the mental processes for producing intelligence products are essentially identical. The major identifiable distinctions among all of these intelligence production processes are who performs the analysis and who the product end users are.

Most intelligence community (IC) organizations’ analysis process descriptions contain two parts: (1) an analysis phase (separating or breaking up any whole into its parts for examination), and (2) a synthesis phase (putting together of parts or elements to form a whole). Throughout the IC, aspects other than analysis and synthesis may (or may not) be present in the definition, but the essential elements of analysis and synthesis are always resident.

For purposes of simplicity, this book uses the term intelligence analysis as a process including all the activities from exploring the given question or problem through providing the final intelligence products (in whatever form they may take; e.g., assessments, imagery, signals reporting).

Setting aside the definition of intelligence analysis for the moment, in this chapter we will limit the discussion to analytical process starting points, which are no more than question...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Contents
• Preface
• About the Authors
• Chapter 1 Defining Intelligence Analysis
• Chapter 2 The Intelligence Cycle
• Chapter 3 Thinking about Thinking
• Chapter 4 Perception and Deception
• Chapter 5 Knowing Your Audience
• Chapter 6 Analytical Communication
• Chapter 7 Defining the Problem
• Chapter 8 Generating the Hypothesis
• Chapter 9 The Collection Process
• Chapter 10 Analytical Tradecraft
• Chapter 11 Cognitive Traps for Intelligence Analysis
• Chapter 12 Probability Estimation
• Chapter 13 Creating an Analytical Plan
• Chapter 14 Preparing and Conducting Intelligence Briefings
• Chapter 15 Best Practices
• Chapter 16 Operations Security (OPSEC)
• Index