1Ā Ā HOUSEHOLD FRAGMENTATION AND THE DECLINE OF MARRIAGE
It does not pay to have no ties.
TACITUS, GERMANIA
Lonely planet: getting away from them all
Human beings may well be a social species, but household trends suggest increasing fragmentation or atomisation. Such trends impose pressures upon living standards and the environment, and are closely bound up with problems of poor child development, personal disadvantage, endemic welfare dependency and the increasing inequalities that have exercised researchers, policy-makers and politicians over the last decade or so. As individuals are disconnected from family, friends, neighbours, churches, clubs, associations and community networks, social capital is destroyed, trust evaporates, despoliation and predation spread.1 These developments are not simply fortuitous or accidental, but are being created by government policies that are altering our demographics: policies that have progressively eradicated the links that bound families and communities together. Out of indifference or even hostility to human collaboration, by ignorance or design, these are subverting the formation of enduring bonds and furthering social dislocation.
If the media are to be believed, living alone is quite a swanky lifestyle for a man who āhas a three bedroom house that he rarely visits and a cleaner to do the washing and ironing. He has all the trappings of a comfortable middle class lifestyle except one: a wife and familyā. Instead, āmost nights he dines out and spends weekends visiting friends, relatives or playing golf.2 Another perspective is provided by an account of a woman lying dead for more than two years, with her faithful television keeping the corpse company. The following day brings a further report of someone who was left dead, unmissed and unlamented, for three years.3 The proportion of one-person households had increased from 14 per cent in 1961 to 30 per cent by 2004. It is projected to increase to 40 per cent by 2021. More than half of those living alone are below pension age whereas, in 1961, the number of those living alone over pension age was double that of younger people living alone. In 2004 the proportion of one-person households with men under 65 was more than three times the proportion in 1961.4 The increase among men in their thirties has been particularly pronounced; once the smallest group of men living alone, they are now the largest, with a majority predicted to be living alone in ten yearsā time.5
A more familiar aspect of fragmentation is the growth of lone parenthood. While men move from their childhood home, or from being one of a couple, to live alone, women often move from their childhood home, from a couple or from living alone to become lone parents. With marriages falling steeply, the marriage age rising and the proportion of births out of wedlock rising from 8 per cent in 1970 to 42 per cent in 2004, the number of lone parents has tripled. While one in four women with a child born out of wedlock goes on to marry in the subsequent eight years, a half of all lone mothers (the fastest-growing subgroup) have never married. A quarter or more of children now have lone parents, who often produce their child(ren) in one or a series of cohabitations, accounting for 60 per cent of unwed childbearing. At the same time, the percentage of first births outside any āpartnershipā has more than doubled in a very short space of time (from 6 per cent in the 1980s to 15 per cent in the 1990s).
One-person and one-parent households have made a significant contribution to the 32 per cent increase in the total number of households in the last 30 years. This increase in the number of households should be seen against a backdrop of total population growth of 6 per cent. In 1971, in England, there were 46 million people and 16 million households with an average size of 2.86 people. In 2003 the population was nearly 50 million, with 21 million households and an average size of 2.36.
When it comes to living arrangements, it is now usual for a trend or an increase along any dimension to be taken for a norm or an ideal. An underlying logic seems to dictate that the way things are going must be right simply because that is how they are going, and so, therefore, it must be embraced and furthered. Often incorporated into this response is the assumption that a trend not only signifies an overwhelming preference, but is already a majority or even a universal behaviour. Therefore, it needs to be pointed out how over two-thirds of people still live in couple households, as do about three-quarters of children (two-thirds of whom are with married couples). Moreover, if something is moving in a certain direction, this does not necessarily make it either right or beneficial. Indeed, as we shall see later, the trend in living alone is something strongly encouraged by government subsidy and taxation policy ā it does not result from the spontaneous action and free choice of people who are facing the full economic costs and consequences of their actions.
The retreat from marriage
The retreat from marriage is clearly a major factor behind the increase in living alone. Younger age groups are remaining single more than previous cohorts, and once in a union they are more likely to dissolve it. The divorce rate increased sharply in the early 1970s and stayed high. More years are spent unmarried and there is more childbearing among the increasing numbers of unmarried people. Cohabitation is twice as likely to produce children now as it was only ten years ago. At the same time, cohabitations in which children are born are much less likely to be converted into marriage, and more likely to dissolve than either marriages or childless cohabitations. Eight per cent of married couples break up before their child is five, compared with 62 per cent of cohabiting parents,6 with the result that three-quarters of family breakdowns affecting young children involve unmarried parents. This was recently confirmed by the Millennium Cohort study (of babies born between September 2000 and January 2002), where the extent of family breakdown in childrenās first three years was 6 per cent where there were married parents, 32 per cent where there were cohabitants and 76 per cent for āclosely involvedā couples. Even high-income cohabiting parents are twice as likely to split as married ones.7 There is a generally upward trend in the proportion of cohabiting relationships that dissolve rather than turn into marriage: the proportion dissolving increased from 30 per cent to 37 per cent to 50 per cent for women born in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s respectively. After break-up, it takes about two years to form another relationship, which, again, is likely to be cohabitation and which, again, is subject to the high risk of dissolution. The strongest predictor of a fatherās absence is the parental relationship at the time of the childās birth,8 with little difference for a child born into cohabitation or outside any live-in relationship. Even teenage mothers who have their first child within marriage are more likely to be with the same man in their mid-thirties than those who had their first child while cohabiting: 1 in 2 compared with 1 in 3.9
The biggest decline in babies born to married families has been in homes with around average income. In the 1970s, most children were found in the third and fourth deciles of the income distribution, with declining numbers in successively richer deciles. Lately, most children are found in the bottom two deciles. A report on the ādriversā of āsocial exclusionā for the Deputy Prime Ministerās Office identified one such driver as the rapid decline in fertility for middle and upper socio-economic groups, with a growing proportion of children born to lower-class and single women.10 Moreover, the size of lone-parent families is increasing while that of couple families continues to decline. Four or more children are now as likely to be found in lone-parent as in couple households.11 As the age of all mothers has risen, the average age of lone mothers has fallen, with a third of the increasing number of single lone mothers aged less than 25. Unwed childbearing was once a temporary status, typically and often fairly quickly followed by marriage and marital childbearing. Now, a new boyfriend, live-in or not, often means a new child, and a larger lone-parent family when the āpartnershipā breaks up, as it is very likely to do.12
The big surge in men living alone is in tune with this escalation in lone parenthood, the continuing high divorce rate and even higher level of cohabitation breakdown. Between 25 and 44 years old more men live alone than women, although this reverses between 55 and 64, as women are more likely to be widowed than men and children leave their lone motherās home. By 2031, the proportion of men aged 45ā54 years old who have never married is expected to rise to 40 per cent.
Analysing the evidence
In the next chapter, we look at the economic and social consequences of what might be termed the atomisation of households. We find that income transfers and the division of labour in households provide important economic and social functions. We then examine how policy has systematically favoured the breaking up of households and militates against their formation. The state is now willing to step in both as ābread providerā and child carer if one parent of a child is absent. We then look in greater detail at the economic evidence regarding the relationship between family status and poverty and try to separate cause and effect. Finally we examine potential approaches to policy and conclude that the state cannot continue to subsidise those who do not meet their family responsibilities because the consequences of doing this are the undermining of the family as an important vehicle for welfare provision and personal progress.
Notes
2 THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF ATOMISATION
In this chapter we simply examine the effects of household fragmentation in terms of poverty, inequality and welfare. Here we simply look at the evidence. We do not make judgements about policy implications until we have examined whether policy intervention is one of the causes of household fragmentation.
Atomisation in the big picture
In the twenty years between 1995 and 2016, the number of English households will grow by almost a quarter.1 About a third or more of the increase in households will be required as a direct result of inward migration and the rest arises from the increase in āstand aloneā singles households (4.4 million extra homes between 1996 and 2016).2 There is virtually no increase projected in the domestic indigenous population. Here, of course, our focus is on the growth in the number of households as a result of fragmentation.
Not so long ago, social or council housing was seen as something for young couples with children unable to afford to buy their own ...