Whole Energy System Dynamics

Theory, modelling and policy

Catalina Spataru

• Publisher: Taylor & Francis
• Year: 2017
• Print ISBN: 9781138799899
• eBook ISBN: 9781317628262
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Technology & Engineering
• Subtopic: Energy Industry
• Index: Technology & Engineering

In order to address the twenty-first-century challenges of decarbonisation, energy security and cost-effectiveness it is essential to understand whole energy systems and the interconnection and interaction between different components. An integrated language is therefore needed to assist energy policymakers and to help industrial stakeholders assess future energy systems and infrastructure and make realistic technical and economic decisions.

Whole Energy System Dynamics provides an interdisciplinary approach to whole energy systems; providing insights and understanding of it in the context of challenges, opportunities and solutions at different levels and time steps. It discusses approaches across disciplinary boundaries as well as existing issues within three main themes: theory, modelling and policy, and their interlinkage with geopolitics, markets and practice. Spataru argues that there is an urgent need for a whole energy system integration. This is necessary for effective analysis, design and control of the interactions and interdependencies involved in the technical, economic, regulatory and social dimensions of the energy system.

This book is essential reading for students interested in the area of energy systems, policy and modelling. It is also a valuable read for policymakers, professionals, researchers, academics, engineers and industrial stakeholders.

Part I
Theory and history

Prologue

The global energy system is in a state of flux and is gradually moving towards a more reliable and clean source of energy. The framework for the change has been provided by significant contributions and integrations of the past relating to energy systems.

An energy system represents the integration of different physical interactions with a focus on practical and viable energy solutions for closing the gap between the demand and supply of energy to society. Any contributions made today in energy research and operations will serve as a blueprint for the development of energy systems in the future.

Energy systems have undergone significant changes since the 1800s. Many fiction writers such as seventeenth-century French writer Jules Verne predicted the evolution of energy systems. The historical timeline reveals that breakthrough inventions that contributed to the development of energy systems such as accumulators and photovoltaic cells had been foreseen by Verne.

Advancements in energy system technologies have contributed to the development of other fields. Advanced energy solutions have spurred development in the communication and transport sector through scientific advances that have led to the invention of superior and reliable technologies.

The energy system today represents a great advancement as compared to the past. It comprises multiple components that together make up the energy mix that includes electrical energy, nuclear energy, wind energy, thermal energy and solar energy. All these sources have different levels of efficiency, costs and risks that contribute to the demands on the energy systems. Moreover, these components have different interdependencies that broaden the scope and usages.

In the first part of the book we will take a look at how the different components of energy systems can be utilised effectively in different sectors, and the extent of the anticipated change that we can expect in the mix in the near future. As mentioned previously, current advances in energy systems have been made through the contributions (theoretical and practical) made in the past, which have led to the discovery of sophisticated solutions in the domain of energy systems. This is the intention of the book: we will look at the components and models of the current energy system and analyse current inefficiencies in the system and the deficits in terms of the global energy supply.

Despite advances in energy systems, it is evident that limited success has been achieved in terms of extra-efficient and sustainable energy systems as projected by Verne and other early fictional scientists. It is, therefore, important to conduct effective research and analysis of the deficiencies in the current energy systems, and design more sustainable and reliable energy models that minimise costs as well as reduce environmental impacts.

1Global energy systems

A historical perspective

All living beings that inhabit this world depend on different sources of energy to survive. The three most common energy sources that animals and plants use for their sustenance are sun, water and food. Without energy, no life form can exist in this world.

Human beings have been using energy sources since time immemorial. Cavemen used fire to cook food, warm themselves and also frighten their enemies. Gradually more sources of fuel for energy were found such as wood, animal dung, charcoal and others that directly contributed to the development of human civilisation. The Sumerians, the Assyrians, the Egyptians, the Greeks and the Romans all used advanced technologies such as windmills and water-wheels, grinding grain and pumping water, that utilised wind, water and sun as energy sources.

With time, various other energy systems were developed that resulted in increased human productivity and economic growth. In this chapter we will take a look at the historical timeline to trace key factors that have led to the development of modern energy systems.

1.1 The three pillars of human development and progress

a) Economic growth across space and time

A look at the historical timeline will reveal that the world economy experienced significant growth after the 1500s. This can be partly explained due to the advancement in international trade and transport technologies. Economic growth was also high during the period 1870 to 1913 mainly due to the Industrial Revolution as well as further advancement in transport technologies.

From 1914 until 1945, the global economy experienced a gradual growth fuelled by three important factors: rapid rise in population, fewer barriers to international trade, and breakthrough technological advancements.

Economic growth brings prosperity in a country, which leads to improved quality of life for the general populace. We can measure economic growth through different metrics. The most popular benchmark of economic growth is gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, which represents an estimation of all goods and services produced by a country in one year divided by the country’s population. The measure of the change of GDP from one year to the next is called economic growth.

Various books written by a number of contemporary writers have examined economic changes over time and in different regions through reconstructions of GDP per capita. One notable book that I would like to briefly mention here is Monitoring the World Economy 1820–1992, written by Angus Maddison, who was a well-known British economist.

Maddison was born in 1926 in Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom. He spent most of his life working as an economics professor at the University of Groningen, Netherlands, and died in 2010 in Neuilly-sur-Seine, France. After his death, his colleagues continued his work in the ‘Maddison Project’.¹ His book, Monitoring the World Economy,² is a fascinating and stimulating read that covers the entire world economy over the past two thousand years. He brought together data from around 56 countries representing 93 per cent of world output. Based on his study, the evolution of world GDP is shown in Figure 1.1.

You can see in Figure 1.1 that a significant economic expansion took place from 1950 to 1973. Average per capita world GDP since 1820 is depicted in Figure 1.2.

Maddison’s study found that there was a huge difference among regions and countries along with gross inequities in the distribution of income between individuals.³

Another book of Maddison titled The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective explains and explores the factors that contributed to the success of rich countries and the obstacles that hindered other countries that lagged behind.⁴ The book quantified long-term changes in world income and population. According to the study, three interactive processes have driven advances in population and income over the past millennium. These are:

a)Conquest or settlement of relatively empty areas which had fertile land, new biological resources, or a potential to accommodate transfer of population, crops and livestock;

b)International trade and capital movements;

c)Technological and institutional innovation.

Maddison says that during the past millennium the world population increased 22 times while at the same time per capital income levels increased by 13 times and world GDP an amazing 400 times. This is in stark contrast to the GDP growth experienced in the preceding millennium when there was no significant increase in population and economic growth. The above listed three processes contributed to growth in the human population and economy.

b) Human global population growth over time and space

World population growth has never been constant either in time or space: the growth was either positive or negative. Increase in rate of world population can be expressed by a simple equation as follows:

Change in Population Density = (Births + Immigration) − (Deaths + Emigration)

Let us look back in time to better understand and comprehend the human population growth and possible limits. Worldwide population was somewhere around 2 to 20 million in about 8000 bc; while by ad 1, the worldwide population had increased to 200 to 300 million people. During the 1500s, the human popula...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table Of Contents
• List of illustrations
• Preface
• Acknowledgements
• List of abbreviations
• PART I Theory and history
• PART II Modelling: challenges and discussions
• PART III Energy policy, markets and geopolitics
• Appendix A: constructing a metadatabase from open data sources
• Appendix B: a compilation of open data sources
• Appendix C: a compilation of energy systems models available online
• Index