As we discussed in the introduction, we will inevitably face the “limits to growth” problem if the environment continues degrading as the economy develops. The consequences of “limits to growth” are illustrated in
Figure 1.2, which depicts the mutual relationship between pollution and the income level in one phase diagram. In the figure, the
curve reflects the causality from pollution to long-term income: for a given intensity of pollution
Pt, the output can grow up to the
curve in the long run.
4 The downward slope of this curve means that the
potential for economic growth is adversely affected by environmental degradation. For example, when air pollution harms human health (WHO, 2006), it not only lowers the productivity of workers but also reduces life expectancy and, hence, the return on education, which in turn lowers the incentives for parents to provide their children with higher education. Without sufficient educated workers, (foreign) firms with advanced technologies will be reluctant to invest in such regions. These considerations imply that higher pollution (i.e., environmental degradation) will adversely affect long-term income.
What, then, determines environmental quality? We may think of economic growth as a determinant of pollution. At the initial stage of economic growth, the scale of production is small, and, thus, both income and pollution would be small. In the figure, this means that the economy starts from a point near the origin. Then, as the economy develops, the scale of production increases. As long as the economy operates under the same technology and the same relative factor prices, the pollution
P would increase proportionally with output. In the figure, this means that the economy moves to the upper right direction and will eventually reach the
curve, beyond which the economy cannot grow (denoted by path
a).
While this seems a pessimistic result, in reality the technology level is not constant but improves as income grows. If improved technologies cause less pollution for a given amount of production, economic growth could mitigate th...