Vital Signs 1997-1998

The Trends That Are Shaping Our Future

Lester R. Brown

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2014
• eBook ISBN: 9781134182374
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Economics
• Subtopic: Ecology
• Index: Economics

The sixth annual guide to the environmental, economic and social trends which are shaping the future, this text presents the good news, the bad news, and a few surprises about the state of our planet. n Part One, facing pages of text and graphs provide information on 40 carefully selected indicators, mapping changes in food supplies; agriculture; the atmosphere, energy and transport; natural resources; the global economy; society and health; and the millitary. Part Two of the text contains special features on less celebrated trends, including ten new vital signs indicators such as violence against women, how the environment impacts on the insurance industry, and the proliferation of landmines.

PartONE

Key Indicators

Food

Trends

World Grain Harvest Sets Record

Lester R. Brown

A combination of strong prices at planting time, expanded area in grain, and unusually good weather helped make the 1996 grain harvest the largest ever: the record crop of 1.84 billion tons was 8.2 percent higher than the weather-depressed harvest of 1.70 billion tons in 1995.¹ (See Figure 1.)

That is the good news. The bad news is that there has been a dramatic loss of momentum in the growth in the world grain harvest during the 1990s. Between 1950 and 1990, the total harvested went from 631 million tons to 1,767 million tons, a gain of 180 percent—or 2.6 percent a year.² In contrast, between 1990 and 1996, the harvest went from 1.77 billion to 1.84 billion tons, an increase of only 4 percent or 0.7 percent a year.³ This helps explain why carryover stocks of grain in 1996 were at an all-time low and why prices of wheat and corn set record highs.⁴

Six years is not enough time to establish a new trend, but an analysis of the use of land, water, and fertilizer to produce grain gives cause for concern. The world grainland area in 1996, though up sharply from 1995, is less than it was in 1980.⁵ The shrinkage can be traced to a combination of the conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses, particularly in Asia, where industrialization is moving at a record pace; the worldwide diversion of grainland to other crops, particularly soybeans; and the loss of land to degradation, mostly as a result of soil erosion.⁶

Harvested area expanded somewhat in 1996 as the modest amount of remaining set-aside land under commodity programs was returned to production in the United States and as the European Union reduced its set-aside area from 12 percent to 10 percent.⁷ In Canada, China, Argentina, the European Union, and Russia, high grain prices led to the conversion to grain of some land that is normally planted to oilseeds.⁸

The growth in irrigated area is also slowing. Aquifer depletion, the diversion of water to cities, and the abandonment of irrigated area as the result of waterlogging and salting may now be offsetting any additions to the irrigated area. Despite official data showing some continuing growth, a 1996 report by the head of the International Irrigation Management Institute indicates that world irrigated area may now actually be shrinking.⁹

The diminishing response to the use of fertilizer in some countries where applications are heavy has actually led to a decline in usage in some situations. Growth in fertilizer use has levelled off or declined slightly in North America, Western Europe, and Japan.¹⁰ In the former Soviet Union, market reforms that eliminated subsidies led to a precipitous drop in usage.¹¹

The trend in per capita grain production clearly reflects this loss of momentum. Between 1950 and 1984, the world grain harvest per person went from 247 kilograms to 342 kilograms, a gain of 38 percent.¹² (See Figure 2.) After reaching this historical peak, it fell 2 percent by 1990, to 335 kilograms.¹³ By 1996, it dropped a further 5 percent, to 319 kilograms per person.¹⁴

The 1996 rice harvest of 377 million tons s...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table of Contents
• Acknowledgments
• Foreword
• Overview: A Year of Contrasts
• Part One: Key Indicators
• Part Two: Special Features
• Notes
• The Vital Signs Series