Technology = Change. The faster the pace of technological advancement, the faster the pace of business change. From mainframes in the 1970s; to PCs in the 1980s; to the Internet in the 1990s; to virtual worlds, social media, and flying cars in the 2000s. Structural change such as this requires the organization to be well-aware of the trends powering these massive changes. Organizations must be reactive to these technology trends as well. To gain a better insight on meeting the technology trend challenge, the organization must delve into the intricacies of researching methods for uncovering technology trends, analyzing the trends, selecting the trends most applicable to the organization, understanding infrastructural changes required as a result of implementing the new technologies, developing metrics for success, and managing risk.
Technology Trend Analysis
Technology trend analysis utilizes information gathering techniques to collect detailed information on those technologies that hold promise for your organization. The breadth and depth of the research will vary from project to project depending on the needs of the organization. The more in depth the research, the better prepared you will be to make timely decisions. In today’s fast pace business environment, timing is often the only thing that separates industry leaders from those that lag behind in terms of achieving competitive advantage. Almost fifty years ago, Fred Smith founded FedEx (Federal Express) using just these techniques. He determined that parcel delivery was economically inadequate. Smith determined that there was a need for shippers to have a computer system designed specifically for airfreight that could accommodate time-sensitive shipments such as medicines, computer parts, and electronics.
Bear in mind that the information gathering process is a continual process that involves updating the information gathered as technologies evolve and converge with other technologies. One of the key information gathering activities involves collecting information not only about technology, but about organizational goals and strategies. This information is usually readily available within various planning documents that the organization generates as part of its regular planning cycle. This information is critical in keeping technology aligned with organizational goals.
The goal, at this point, should be to get as much accurate information as possible. Don’t be concerned with analyzing the information at this point, which will happen later in the process. The concern at this point is that the information gathered be accurate and as complete as possible.
The following checklist will help to ensure you have all the information you will need to move forward with the process. It is not necessary to do every item listed, but you should look at the listed items to ensure that all the appropriate bases are covered. Be sure to consider the risk that the data you are collecting presents.
Internal information gathering
Gather internal organizational information, mission statement, strategic goals, tactical goals, and operational goals
Distribute a survey to key decision makers and align expectations for primary goals with technology trends
Gather information on marketing and advertising strategies, and identify short- and long-term goals
Understand branding strategy including the desired perception, message, and tone
Gather qualitative data on customers and customer service
External information gathering
Research your industry using traditional research methods, the library, online searches, paid research organization, etc.
Research industry-specific publications, newsgroups associations, organizations, white papers, etc.
Identify primary and secondary competition
Identify main differentiators from competition
Technology information gathering
Gather quantitative data on existing infrastructure; use logs to analyze traffic patterns and identify trends
Conduct a technology audit to determine how effective the current infrastructure is at meeting the overall goals of the organization
Define the extent of infrastructure upgrades required to support the new technology
Define the primary goal that the new technology will help the organization achieve
Create scenarios of what the future would look like if the new technology were implemented
At this phase of the information gathering process, you need to identify the specific goals that the organization needs to achieve by implementing the new technology. The following questions may help to solidify those goals:
What business objective will the technology impact?
Can the business objective be tied back to a strategic, tactical, or operational goal?
What impact will the new technology have on the existing infrastructure?
Does the organization have internal expertise to support the new technology?
These question need to be addressed but do not get sidetracked; you are not yet looking for the answer to any “how-to” questions. For now, you are just trying to identify possibilities for the new technology. It may be helpful to review some of the information collected during the information gathering phase of the process. Look for specific goals that the technology may help the organization achieve. Some possible goals might include:
Increase market share
Increase customer satisfaction
New product or service development
Compete more effectively
Decrease demand for customer service
Create alliances or partnerships
Streamline supply chain
Create a scalable infrastructure for growth
The information gathered should allow you to identify a clear linkage to what organizational goals the technology will address and what obstacles will need to be overcome to effectively integrate the technology into the organization’s existing infrastructure.
Conceptualizing Applicability of Emerging Trends
There are many trends that you could spend your day watching and analyzing. The problem is you would not get any work done. Selecting which trends will have the greatest impact on the organization is pretty simple if you have covered all the bases during the information gathering process. You just look at those technology trends that have the biggest impact on achieving organizational goals. Jeff Bezos looked at the trend toward moving things to the Internet and founded Amazon.com as a result.
One of the current trends that many organizations are following is the trend to focus IT resources on the migration to cloud services (e.g., Software as a Service, or SaaS) that allow the organization to work more closely with those that are involved with the organization’s value chain. It has been said that the Internet changed everything; and, despite the dot-com bust (between ~2000 and 2002), the innovation that was unleashed during the boom has paved the way for more traditional businesses to leverage existing systems and the Internet to work more closely with the partners, suppliers, and customers.
Cloud and other web technologies will continue to change the way we do business and to provide challenges and risks that need to be overcome. Perhaps the most significant subtrend in this area is the trend toward customer enablement. By putting more functionality in the hands of the firm’s customers, organizations are satisfying demand for ubiquitous, anytim...
