Social Impact Assessment

Method And Experience In Europe, North America And The Developing World

Henk Becker, Netherlands. Henk Becker University of Utrecht, Becker, Henk, Henk Becker University of Utrecht, Netherlands.

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2014
• Topic: Social Sciences
• eBook ISBN:
  9781134220458
• Subtopic: Social Policy
• Index: Social Sciences

This book is intended for introductory courses in SIA within sociology, social policy, human geography and political science at postgraduate level. Specialist postgraduate and professional courses in policy- orientated social research and in social and general impact assessment.

Chapter 1

The quest for least-regret strategies

1.1 Introduction

This textbook synthesizes a wide range of experiences reported over the years by many social impact assessors and has benefited substantially from the experience of many colleagues. However, it is in no way a routine instruction in social impact assessment (SIA) methodologies. It is my belief that each problem presented to a social impact assessor requires an approach that combines well-known procedures with new trial-and-error approaches. For this reason I doubt very much whether a standardized overall methodology for this type of policy-oriented social research will ever appear.

This is not only a textbook but also a context-book. Methods for SIA will be presented in the context of insights derived from sociology, demography, the political sciences and related disciplines. During the last few decades, the social sciences have made considerable progress and social impact assessors have incorporated these achievements into their projects. In particular, the social sciences have increased our understanding of individual behaviour, of the objectives of individuals, and of the action space individuals have at their disposal. The methodology of social science research also provides many new insights, but as yet we do not see much of this being applied in SIA.

Most people usually imagine large development projects like dams and reservoirs when they hear the words social impact assessment. These schemes, often commissioned by national governments, usually have dramatic consequences for villagers, their homes and their fields. There are indeed many SIAs which explore the social consequences of these types of development projects and a number of them will be discussed in this book. However, there are many types of SIA. Another kind is legal IA. For example, European integration will have consequences for social security policies in the member states. The member states have to prepare for deregulation and for new legal provisions, and in this connection social impact assessors are actively assessing the consequences of deregulation and re-regulation (see De Kemp & Sips 1994). We also find SIA in commercial enterprises. Management teams apply strategic learning to explore shifts in the social environment of their organizations, to design new strategies and to simulate the consequences of these shifts for the activities of their organization, their customers and their competitors (see Schwarz 1992; Senge 1990).

What is implied by the term impact assessment in the general sense? Impact assessment (IA) can be defined as the process of identifying the future consequences of a current or proposed action. This kind of policy-oriented social research is also called ex-ante evaluation, the pretesting of actions, or the analysis of consequences. One of the major sub-fields of impact assessment is SIA. I define social impact assessment as the process of identifying the future consequences of a current or proposed action which are related to individuals, organizations and social macro-systems.

This definition is similar to the description of SI assessment by the Inter-organizational Committee on Guidelines and Principles (1994). The committee defined social impacts as the consequences for human populations of any public or private action – that alters the way in which people live, work, play, relate to one another, organize to meet their needs, and generally cope as members of society. According to the committee, the term also includes cultural impacts involving changes in the norms, values and beliefs that guide and rationalize their cognition of themselves and their society (ibid 1994: 1).

In its monograph, the Inter-organizational Committee defined SIA in terms of

efforts to assess or estimate, in advance, the social consequences likely to follow from specific policy actions (including programs, and the adoption of new policies), and specific government actions (including buildings, large projects and leasing large tracts of land for resource extraction), particularly in the context of the US National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA).

Although the Guidelines and Principles is an important document, it was developed for the regulatory system in the USA. Moreover, it implies that SIA did not exist prior to the passage of the NEPA. I do not agree and will argue that SIA is not restricted to the context of environmental impact assessment but operates as a type of IA in its own right.

This book is intended as an introduction to SIA, and sets it in an international perspective. I focus on the following issues, that can also be read as questions:

1. The major characteristics of SIA.

2. The historical development of SIA.

3. The main methods used in SIA.

4. The experiences gained from SIA in Europe, North America and a number of developing countries and the pitfalls encountered.

5. The state of the art in contemporary SIA.

6. The normative and practical aspects of SIA which give rise to concern.

In discussing SIA as one of the subfields of IA, attention has to be paid to its many relationships with the other major components of IA. First, environmental impact assessment (EIA) must be mentioned. This has already been mentioned in the context of the National Environmental Policy Act of the USA. This law has served as a model for similar legislation concerning the protection of the environment in various judicial systems throughout the world. A typical example of an EIA is the ex-ante evaluation of the environmental consequences of building a new industrial plant and the questions its development raise, such as, will it pollute ground water and air in the region?

Secondly, we have to take a look at technology assessment (TA). This type of analysis was developed in the 1960s and reflects concern about the unintended consequences of technology on society. In the USA, TA was formalized in 1972 with the establishment of the Office of Technology Assessment, an agency that concentrated on US Government policy concerns (see Vanclay & Bronstein 1995: xi). In recent years, TA has been institutionalized in most other western countries but lacks the legal basis entrenching environmental IA. Early in 1996 the US Office of Technology Assessment was forced to close its doors, although this kind of policy-oriented research can be expected to continue in other organizational settings. A characteristic example of TA is the ex-ante evaluation of innovations in telecommunication.

Thirdly, I want to draw attention to economic impact assessment. This involves the impact of actions on economic structures and processes, including changes in local employment, business activities, earnings and income (Leistritz 1995: 129). A key activity in economic IA is input-output analysis, that is, providing estimates that reflect expenditure patterns in regional or national economies.

IA is closely related to the evaluation of actions situated in the past. The analysis of past actions has acquired so much prominence that it is often called just evaluation research. Two main types of ex-post evaluation can be distinguished. If intermediate outcomes of the analysis are used to improve the action, it is known as a formative evaluation, whereas if the final outcomes of the analysis are used to judge the action it is known as a summative evaluation. There is a substantial body of literature on ex-post evaluation research, and the practitioners of this kind of research have established an international professional association of their own. The link between ex-ante and ex-post evaluation is illustrated by the emergence of programme evaluation. This type of policy-oriented research introduces an integrated analysis of interventions that span two or more stages. Each stage of the programme is accompanied by both ex-ante and ex-post evaluation, and in addition to this the programme as a whole is subjected to an ex-ante and an ex-post evaluation. As an example of a programme I take a nation-wide educational reform that spans three years. Each year can be taken as a stage in the programme, consisting of interventions, and both types of evaluation research. I will elaborate on ex-post evaluation and programme evaluation later on.

There also exists close links between IA and advisory activities, because designing and ranking of actions in IA represents advice to a central actor. This implies that in this book I can draw upon the literature on scientists engaged in advisory activities, counselling and planned social change (inter alia Becker 1976). For example, I will discuss the difference between a suggestion for action made by a lay person and professional advice for action formulated by a scientist. I will also discuss the difference between a professional manager running a reorganization and a scientist assisting the manager in accomplishing the reorganization. The scientific adviser could be a sociologist, an economist, but also a mathematician or a natural scientist. When I formulate scientific advice, I am presenting an intervention hypothesis, because I predict that action A will have the consequences x1 . . . xn. Intervention hypotheses can be tested by empirical research, by deriving predictions and confronting the predictions with observations. I will also discuss in which situations scientific advisers or counsellors represent a worthwhile investment.

In this chapter, some of the main ideas related to SIA developed later in this book will be introduced. The discussion is informal and is intended to prepare the way for the more detailed arguments that follow. Unfortunately some overlap between this and later discussions cannot be avoided. I begin by providing an example, and next I describe the main characteristics of SIA projects and go on to present a conceptual model for SIA that focuses on the relationships between SIA and the social sciences. I also examine the main types of SIA.

1.2 A case of SIA

To illustrate SIA and its utilization in policy-making, I take a life insurance company in a western country. This fictitious corporation sells life insurance to private customers. It also sells investment arrangements to individuals who want to use these investments as a source of income when they retire. I shall discuss a board meeting of this corporation, including the documents presented by staff departments in preparation of decision-making. On the agenda there is an issue related to an expansion of the market for life insurance and investment arrangements. A second issues deals with a merger with another life insurance company. The third issue requires a decision on a proposal for kindergarten provisions for young children of female employees of the company.

The document about the first issue on the agenda starts by analyzing the problem. The corporation is confronted with a new law on pensions. Until recently employees had to become members of a pension scheme created by their employer. The premiums for the pension rights were deduced from the income tax. Now a law has been passed that permits employees to arrange for their income in old age either by participating in a pension scheme offered by their employer or by paying a specified sum each month into an investment arrangement. In both cases the monthly payment can be deduced from income tax. The new law confronts life insurance companies with a substantial increase of their market opportunities. Our corporation estimates an increase of 30–40 per cent of its annual sales during a period of about five years. The corporation will have to expand its organization. The document discusses two policy options and their consequences. One option would be to employ more personnel. Another alternative would be to engage temporary manpower. The second alternative will enable the company to retrench without firing personnel as soon as the market shrinks. The policy document presents an SIA. Is also discusses economic and fiscal consequences.

The second issue on the agenda relates to a process of reorganization that started two years ago with a policy decision to merge with another life insurance company. In both companies a process of planned change was initiated that follows the rules of strategic learning. In both firms workshops were held to design new corporate strategies and to analyze their consequences, taking macro-change into consideration. The next step in the merger will be negotiations between the two partners concerning the new structure after the merger. Option one is a highly centralized organization and a co-ordinated set of departments. Option two is a decentralized organization with relatively autonomous departments and a light co-ordination by a central corporate board. Which option will lead to the most favourable effects for both partners in the merger? The policy document presents an SIA, describing just one step in a process of strategic learning.

The third issue on the agenda looks at kindergarten facilities for the offspring of female employees. The corporation wants to hire a certain number of positions in a kindergarten in operation near its main office building. The policy document drafted in preparation of this decision provides an overview of the number of female employees and the number of children they have under the age of four. At the last moment the staff department has realized that an announcement of the advent of kindergarten facilities will result in a baby boom starting nine months after the communication. Female employees that have postponed pregnancies because kindergarten facilities were lacking will decide to have their babies now. The policy document presents an informed guess about the demand for positions related to (a) children already born, and (b) children to be born after the announcement of the child care facilities. It also estimates how long the baby boom will last and how the corporation can cope with the leave of absence of female employees before and after the birth of their babies. It is evident that this policy document is an SIA.

This example illustrates that the board of the corporation has to take social impacts into consideration before arriving at a decision on each of the three issues. The issues are too complex to be decided upon without an assessment of impacts. It is also evident that the decisions have to be based on both hard and soft information.

1.3 A profile of SIA

As orientation, I will begin by sketching a profile of SIA. Figure 1.1 gives a flow-chart of the initial and main phases of a large-scale project. Later, in Chapter 6, I will discuss this flow-chart in more detail and specify guidelines for instant projects and medium-size projects. Because SIA deals with the consequences of a current or future action, we first have to take a closer look at th...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table of Contents
• Preface
• Figures
• 1. The quest for least-regret strategies
• 2. The historical context of SIA
• 3. Methods for the preliminary phase in SIA
• 4. Methods for the Main Phase in SIA
• 5. Types of SIA
• 6. Major problems of SIA
• 7. Experiences with SIA in Europe and North America
• 8. SIA in a number of developing countries
• 9. Conclusions, discussion and implications
• Cases and exercises
• Glossary
• Bibliography
• Index