On Escalation

Metaphors and Scenarios

Herman Kahn

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2017
• Print ISBN: 9781412811620
• eBook ISBN: 9781351502207
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Politics
• Index: Politics & International Relations

In this widely discussed and influential book, Herman Kahn probes the dynamics of escalation and demonstrates how the intensification of conflict can be depicted by means of a definite escalation ladder, ascent of which brings opponents closer to all-out war. At each rung of the ladder, before the climb proceeds, decisions must be made based on numerous choices. Some are clear and obvious, others obscure, but the options are always there.

Thermonuclear annihilation, says Kahn, is unlikely to come through accident; but nations may elect to climb the ladder to extinction. The basic material for the book was developed in briefings delivered by Kahn to military and civilian experts and revised in the light of his findings of a trip to Vietnam in the 1960s. In On Escalation he states the facts squarely. He asks the reader to face unemotionally the terrors of a world fully capable of suicide and to consider carefully the alternatives to such a path.

In the never-never land of nuclear warfare, where nuclear incredulity is pervasive and paralyzing to the imagination even for the professional analyst, salient details of possible scenarios for the outbreak of war, and even more for war fighting, are largely unexplored or even unnoticed. For scenarios in which war is terminated, the issues and possibilities of which are almost completely unstudied, the situation is even worse. Kahn's discussion throws light on the terrain and gives the individual a sense of the range of possibilities and complexities involved and are useful.

Index

Accidental war, 284-86. See also Inadvertent war, See also Unintended war

Aftermaths

1. of escalation to lower rungs, 238-42
2. of escalation to upper rungs, 242-43
3. of May, 1938, crisis, 239-40
4. study of, 230

Agonistic behavior

1. aspect of national conduct, 18
2. in escalation in twenty-first century, 270
3. in Renaissance warfare, 247
4. See also Arms control, See also National conduct, See also Systems bargaining, See also Nuclear threshold

Agreed battle, 4, 5, 7, 8. See also Systems bargaining

Allen, Joseph, ix

An Alternative to War or Surrender, 238n

American Society of International Law, 225n

Antiballistic missile, 157-59

1. possible low-level ABM coverage, 158

Antirecuperation attacks, 189

Appeasement

1. as alternative to escalation, 135, 224
2. détente not based upon, 250
3. in game of “chicken,” 225-26
4. rationalizations for, 251
5. and unilateral initiatives, 232
6. See also Aftermaths, See also De-escalation, See also Systems bargaining, See also Tactics

Armbruster, Francis, vi, 94n

Arms control

1. example of contractual concept, 16
2. implicit and informal, 261
3. major objectives of, 260
4. most strategists approve, 132
5. “no first-use” agreements, 118-21
   1. arguments against, 121-24
   2. dangers of, 124-27, 131
   3. historical context, 129-30, 131
6. role of evacuation in, 160-62
7. to handle escalation, 273
8. See also Agonistic behavior, See also Arms race, See also National conduct, See also Systems bargaining

Arms Control, Disarmament, and National Security, 281n

Arms race

1. and international stability, 269ff
2. in strategy and tactics, 199-200 See also Arms control, See also “Doomsday machines,” See also Nth countries

Aron, Raymond, 23, 43

The Art of War in the Middle Ages: AD 378-1515, 20n

Aspects of International Order, ix

Attack-...

Table of contents

• Cover Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Contents
• Introduction to the Transaction Edition, Thon1as C. Schelling
• Foreword to the Paperback Edition
• Acknowledgements
• Preface
• I. Introduction
• II. The Rungs of The Escalation Ladder
• III. Disagreements and Subcrisis Maneuvering
• IV. Traditional Crises
• V. Intense Crises
• VI. The Nuclear Threshold
• VII. Bizarre Crises and Exemplary Central Attacks
• VIII. The Importance of Crises Concepts
• IX. Military and Civilian Central Wars
• X. Some Comments On “War-Fighting”
• XI. Defects of The Escalation-Ladder Metaphor
• XII. De-escalation And Its Aftermath
• XIII. Other Aspects of Escalation And Crises
• APPENDIX Relevant Concepts and Language for the Discussion of Escalation
• Index