The World Muslim Population

Spatial and Temporal Analyses

Houssain Kettani

• Publisher: Jenny Stanford Publishing
• Year: 2019
• ISBN:
  9780429749254
• Edition: 1
• Topic: History
• Subtopic: World History
• Index: History

The birth of Islam over fourteen centuries ago was a monumental event in human history with an everlasting effect on humanity. For centuries, researchers have contemplated the growth and distribution of Muslims throughout the world. This book presents a reliable estimate of the world Muslim population since the inception of Islam at the start of the seventh century to the end of the twenty-first century. In this book, the world is divided into five continents, each of which is further divided into non-overlapping regions, and these in turn are divided into current countries. A centennial data estimate for each region and current country from 600 AD to 2100 AD (approximately 1 H to 1500 H) of the total population, and the corresponding Muslim population and its percentage are provided. Furthermore, the same data in decennial order from 1790 to 2100 (or 1210 H to 1520 H) are provided for each region and country. These data are summarized to be an accurate reference for other studies and discussions related to the Muslim population. Written for demographers, researchers, historians, as well as general readers, this book is an essential reference to all aspects of the world Muslim population.

Chapter 1

Introduction

The birth of Islam over fourteen centuries ago was a monumental event in human history with an everlasting effect on humanity. For centuries researchers contemplated on the growth and distribution of Muslims throughout the world [JAN, KET86, MAS, PEW]. A history of the spread of Islam until the fourteenth century was presented by Ismail Ibnu Kathir (704 H/1301 to 774 H/1373) in his book Al-Bidaya wa Nihaya (The Beginning and the End) [IIK], but it lacks a record of the numbers of Muslims. Nevertheless, we use such history to infer the percentage of Muslims in a particular country. However, the first global comprehensive work was done by Hubert Jansen (1854–1917) in 1897. He was followed by many others, including Louis Massignon (1883–1962) in 1923, Ali Kettani (1941–2001) in 1986 and Pew Research Center in 2009. All their work was concerned with the “current” number of Muslims worldwide or their increase within one to three decades. In contrast, the first comprehensive estimate of the world Muslim population since the inception of Islam around 600 to 2300 was introduced by Houssain Kettani in 2014 [KET14]. In the latter, the spread of the Muslim population, change in numbers, and distribution throughout the world and within current political boundaries was analyzed. The purpose of this book is to present a comprehensive and updated estimate of the world Muslim population since the inception of Islam at the start of the seventh century to the end of the twenty-first century, tracking its spread and change in numbers and distribution throughout the world and within current political boundaries.

To begin, we need to distinguish a Muslim from non-Muslims as follows: A Muslim is a person who believes in one god and that prophet Mohammed is His messenger. The God or “Allah” in Arabic is the one who created us, all other creatures and the Universe. The distinction between god and The God is the fact that for someone who worships something, that thing is his god, but Allah is The God worthy of worship as He Is the one who created us and the Universe. In other words, a Muslim is someone who bears witness that “there is no god but Allah, and that Mohammed is His messenger” or in Arabic “la ilaha illa lah, mohammadun rasulu lah.” Muslims believe that Mohammed is the final messenger of God in a chain of human Messengers to humanity that started with Adam and included Noah, Abraham, Moses and Jesus. Prophet Mohammed peace and blessings upon him (PBUH) was born in Mecca in Rabi I 53 BH (before Hijra) or May 570 AD. In Ramadan, 13 BH, or September 609 AD, at age forty in lunar years, the Prophet received the first revelation from God through the angel Gabriel while he was praying in Hira Cave at Thawr Mountain near Mecca. This revelation started with the word “read” from Sura 96 (al-Alaq), and by which the religion of Islam has started. Three years later, he was commanded by God to preach Islam and the number of Muslims was in the tens.

As the number of Muslims increased, the pagans of Mecca started persecuting them to abandon Islam. Accordingly, in Rajab 8 BH, or May 614 AD, sixteen Muslims migrated to Abyssinia (currently Ethiopia and Eritrea), where they were protected by its king, an-Najashi, who has also accepted Islam later. They were followed by 101 Muslims later in the same year. By Muharram 7 H, or May 628 AD, all those Muslims returned to Medina. The persecution of Muslims reached its extreme when Meccan pagans plotted to assassinate the Prophet (PBUH). Thus, in Rabi I 1 H, or September 622 AD, the Prophet entered the city of Medina, migrating from Mecca, which is referred to as Hijra, or the Migration. This was the start of the first Muslim state, and the Muslim (Hijri) Calendar, which is lunar and therefore about eleven days shorter than the Gregorian calendar which is solar. By now, the number of Muslims was in the hundreds.

In Ramadan 2 H, or March 624 AD, the Muslims won their first war with Meccan pagans at the Battle of Badr. After this victory, the number of Muslims was in the thousands. In 7 H and 8 H, or 628 AD and 629 AD, the Prophet sent messengers to nearby kings calling them to accept Islam. Those accepting Islam were Kings of Bahrain (currently Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and East of Saudi Arabia), Oman (currently Oman and UAE), and Yemen. In Ramadan 8 H, or January 630 AD, the Muslim troops numbering 10,000, led by Prophet Mohammed (PBUH) conquered Mecca, and he pardoned its residents. By now, the number of Muslims was in the tens of thousands, or 0.01% of the world population, which is estimated at quarter of a billion.

Prophet Mohammed (PBUH) died in Rabi I 11 H, or June 632 AD, at age 62, at Medina, where he was buried. By then, the Arabian Peninsula was under Muslim control, and the number of Muslims was in the hundreds of thousands, or around 0.1% of the world population. The Prophet was followed by his first Caliph, Abu Bakr bnu Abi Quhafa, AKA Abdullah bnu Othman, who passed away in Jumada II 13 H or August 634 AD at age of 61, at Medina, where he was buried next to the Prophet (PBUH). During his two-year reign, Muslims expanded to West Iraq and Jordan. He then was followed by the second Caliph, Omar bnul Khattab, who passed away after an assassination attempt in Thul Hijja 23 H or November 644 AD at age 65, at Medina, where he was buried next to the Prophet (PBUH). During his ten-year reign, Muslims expanded to Syria, Lebanon, East Iraq, Iran, Palestine, Egypt, Libya, East Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Southeast Georgia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and South Turkmenistan. By now, the number of Muslims was in the millions or around 1% of the world population and continued to increase in numbers since then.

In this study, we track the change of the world Muslim population since the inception of Islam till 2100 AD or 1520 H. The global data show that the percentage of Muslims with respect to the world population has likely increased from 3.5% in 700 AD or 100 H to 7.2% in 800 AD or 200 H, to 10.5% in 900 AD or 300 H, to 13.1% in 1000 AD or 400 H and increased slowly to 16.1% by 1700. The Muslim population dropped to 13.0% in 1800 AD or 1200 H, to increase to 13.7% in 1900 AD or 1300 H. However, a remarkable trend happened after World War II, by which the rate of increase in each decade became over one percentage point, and the trend is expected to continue throughout this century. This caused the percentage of Muslims with respect to the world population to reach 25.1% in 2020/1440 H. Thus, Muslims increased from one out of eight of the world population in 1850/1270 H, to one out of seven in 1950/1370 H, to one out of six in 1970/1390 H, to one out of five in 1990/1410 H, to one out of four in 2020/1440 H, to one out of three by 2080/1500 H.

Official censuses inquiring on religious affiliation were considered in this study to be the most reliable. We exclude non-valid data such as missing, no response or refused to answer from the total of the population. Also, some censuses have a cut off at how old the respondent should be for religious data. Some start at five, twelve, sixteen or eighteen years old. However, not all censuses inquire on religious adherence, nor are held regularly. Thus, our second source of estimates is surveys that inquire on religion. These surveys interview a few numbers of people (hundreds to thousands) in a country. The data is then weighted to account for bias and underestimation, and excludes non-valid data such as missing, no response or refused to answer. Some common surveys are:

• Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), prepared by ICF International since 1984. The survey typically includes 10,000 people aged 15 to 49, two-thirds of whom are female. We obtain the religion for men and women separately then take the average of the two.

• European Values Study (EVS), prepared by Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences at Tilburg University, The Netherlands in 1981, 1990, 1999 and 2008. The survey typically includes 1,000 people aged 18 and older.

• European Social Survey (ESS), prepared by the Centre for Comparative Social Surveys at City University London, The United Kingdom. The survey typically includes 1,000 people aged 15 and older and is conducted every two years since 2001.

• World Values Survey (WVS), prepared by WVS Association at the University of Aberdeen, The United Kingdom since 1981. The survey typically includes 1,000 people aged 18 and older.

• International Social Survey (ISS), prepared by the ISS Programme since 1985 and typically includes 1,000 people aged 18 and older.

• East Asia Barometer Survey (EAB), prepared by the Department of Political Science at the National Taiwan University, since 2001 and typically includes 1,500 people aged 18 and older.

• Asia Barometer Survey (ABM), prepared by the University of Niigata Prefecture, Tokyo, Japan, between 2003 and 2008 and typically includes 800 to 1,000 people.

• Asian Barometer Survey (ANM), prepared by the Center for East Asia Democratic Studies at the National University of Taiwan since 2001 and typically includes 800 to 1,200 people.

• Afro Barometer Survey (ABS), carried out through a partnership of the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in South Africa, the Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana), Institute for Empirical Research in Political Economy (IREEP) in Benin, Institute for Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi, the Democracy in Africa Research Unit in the Centre for Social Science Research at the University of Cape Town and the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. The survey is held since 2002 and typically includes 1,200 people aged 18 and older.

When no census or survey is available, we resort to other estimates from reliable sources applied to the total population obtained in the nearest census. Thus, in individual country data tables, the year and total population is based on census data with exception of countries where census is not taken for decades. In addition, the last column in these tables provides the reference on which the Muslim population estimate is based. Next to the reference, letters “c,” “e,” and “es” is added to indicate that the estimate is based on census where religious adherence is inquired, or ethnic census from which we can deduce religious affiliation, or just an estimate, respectively.

We divide each continent into various regions, and then sort countries that belong to each region in alphabetical order. These regions are sorted in terms of the percentage of Muslims from highest to lowest. Centennial data from 600 AD to 2100 AD (or approximately 1 H to 1500 H) and decennial data from 1790 AD to 2100 AD (or 1210 H to 1520 H) for each region and each current country in this region are presented in a table. History of the beginning of Islam in the corresponding country is discussed in a separate section. The data includes total population in thousands (P), the percentage of which is Muslim (M%), the corresponding Muslim population in thousands (M), and the annual population growth rate (APGR, or G%) of the total population in this region. The latter is calculated as ln(P₂/P₁)/(t₂ – t₁)*100, where P_i is the population in year t_i and ln is the natural logarithm.

The total population estimate in each country since 1950 is based on the United Nations’ World Population Prospects [UNP], while pre-1950 data is based on the work of Angus Maddison (1926–2010) in [MAD], which was based on the historical economies of the corresponding regions. Other estimates such as [AVA, OCE, PSH] and census data are used to fill in missing data from Maddison’s work. Ancient census data were taken only in some major cities in Europe and the Middle East. Reliable censuses for extended geographical areas were only conducted in Europe starting in the eighteenth century. While global population data is only close to reliable after 1950. Nevertheless, most population models, including the ones adopted in this study, assume that global population has been increasing constantly for the last several millenniums, although acknowledging that regionally, populations did grow and decline following a cyclical path. Substantial population growth started after 1800 when world population reached one billion. The increase was due to improved health care, resulting in decrease in mortality rate and increase in life expectancy. Our estimate of the percentage of Muslims in each country prior to the nineteenth century is based on the history of the spread of Muslims and their ruling of the corresponding region.

Current area and map of each country is also presented in the country’s corresponding section to illustrate its location, political boundaries, and neighboring countries. These maps are mostly obtained from the World Factbook [CIA]. Data for Asia, Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania are considered in Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, respectively. Chapter 7 presents a summary of the data for the whole world. Every attempt is sought to present reliable data, however, the statistics presented in this book, in the words of the French demographer Jean-Baptiste Moheau (1745–1794) [MOH]: “These estimates based on likelihoods, constitute a first step to the truth, and the only proper way to criticize them, is to displace them by more accurate ones.”

References

[ABS] Afrobarometer (2015). Afrobarometer Online Data Analysis. Retrieved from http://www.afrobarometer-online-analysis.com/

[ABM] Inoguchi, T. (2015). AsiaBarometer Survey Data [Computer Files]. Retrieved from http://www.asiabarometer.org/

[ANB] Center for East Asia Democratic Studies (2017). Asian Barometer Survey Data [Computer Files]. Retrieved from http://www.asianbarometer.org/

[AVA] Avakov, A.V. (2015). Two Thousand Years of Economic Statistics, Years 1-2012: Population, GDP at PPP, and GDP Per Capita (Vol. 2: by Country). New York, NY: Algora Publishing.

[CIA] Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) (2019). The World Factbook. Washington, DC: CIA. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

[DHS] ICF International (1984–2018). The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program. Rockville, MD: ICF International. Retrieved from http://dhsprogram.com/

[EAB] East Asia Barometer Network at National Taiwan University (2015). East Asia Barometer Database. Madrid: A...