Successful Adaptation to Climate Change

Linking Science and Policy in a Rapidly Changing World

Susanne Moser, Maxwell Boykoff, Susanne C. Moser, Maxwell T. Boykoff, Susanne Moser, Maxwell Boykoff, Susanne C. Moser, Maxwell T. Boykoff

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2013
• Print ISBN: 9780415524995
• eBook ISBN: 9781135071295
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Biowissenschaften
• Subtopic: Umwelt- & Energiepolitik

What does successful adaptation look like? This is a question we are frequently asked by planners, policy makers and other professionals charged with the task of developing and implementing adaptation strategies. While adaptation is increasingly recognized as an important climate risk management strategy, and on-the-ground adaptation planning activity is becoming more common-place, there is no clear guidance as to what success would look like, what to aim for and how to judge progress.

This edited volume makes significant progress toward unpacking the question of successful adaptation, offering both scientifically informed and practice-relevant answers from various sectors and regions of the world. It brings together 18 chapters from leading experts within the field to present careful analyses of different cases and situations, questioning throughout commonly avowed truisms and unspoken assumptions that have pervaded climate adaptation science and practice to date. This book offers not one answer but demonstrates how the question of success in important ways is normative and context specific. It identifies the various dimensions of success, such as economic, political, institutional, ecological, and social, explores the tensions between them, and compiles encouraging evidence that resolutions can be found. The book appraises how climatic and non-climatic stressors play a role, what role science does and can play in adaptation decision making, and how trade-offs and other concerns and priorities shape adaptation planning and implementation on the ground.

This is timely interdisciplinary text sheds light on key issues that arise in on-the-ground adaptation to climate change. It bridges the gap between science and practical application of successful adaptation strategies and will be of interest to both students, academics and practitioners.

1 Climate change and adaptation success

The scope of the challenge

Susanne C. Moser and Maxwell T. Boykoff

Successful adaptation: an introduction

Adaptation to the impacts of climate change is now fully established in the scientific literature as necessary and complementary to mitigation efforts (NRC 2010a, b, c; Holdren 2008; IPCC 2007). The world of policy and practice at all levels of government, in business, and in civic society is also rapidly waking to that reality. Climatic signals are clearly emerging out of the “noise” of year-to-year variability, and the effects of climate change are increasingly documented by researchers, and becoming apparent to the layperson. Particularly the occurrence of extreme climate and weather events has played a role in bringing adaptation to the fore (IPCC 2012; Leiserowitz et al. 2012; Peterson et al. 2012).

Meanwhile, international climate negotiations on emissions reductions have yet to yield a breakthrough with substantive policy plans that would set the nations of the world on a clear and feasible path toward significantly slowing the causes of contemporary climate change. Similarly, international adaptation policy progress has been patchy at best (Keskitalo et al. 2012; Liverman and Billett 2010). Despite a surge of scientific studies on adaptation, policy-makers, planners, and resource managers are grappling to determine how to meet the challenges ahead.

As emission trends continue upward (IEA 2011), many individuals and communities struggle to grasp the practical implications of significant climate warming. They are asking: what new or familiar but greater threats must we prepare for? What strategies, both new and well established, are available and feasible? How can and when must they be implemented? And how can the effectiveness of these strategies be assessed against the backdrop of a continuously changing environment? While such questions are not entirely unique to adaptation policy and practice, climate change poses particularly difficult challenges to policymakers and managers given its global, complex, interconnected, and rapid nature.

The central question of this book is front and center on their minds: “What does successful adaptation look like?” In fact, it is that question – posed to us by practitioners – that has motivated the explorations collected in this volume. It is a question that has no easy scientific or political answers. Those who are just beginning to explicitly grapple with the adaptation question may not know where to begin to unravel the complexities involved that the question of success may entail. And even those already deeply engaged in adaptation often have little experience with how to set themselves up for long-term learning, evaluation, and ongoing adjustments to meet policy goals in an uncertain and rapidly changing environment.

This edited volume responds to these practical matters through careful analyses of different cases and situations, and by questioning some unspoken assumptions that have pervaded climate adaptation decision-making to date. Contributors here aim to unpack the question of successful adaptation and offer both scientifically informed and practice-relevant answers from various sectors and regions of the world. We aim to frame how to think about adaptation success, rather than provide a uniformly applicable answer. Importantly, we approach this challenge from the assumption that there are social, ecological, economic, political, technical, institutional, psychological, and cultural dimensions to consider, and that, therefore, there will not and cannot be just one answer. For example, judging merely the achievement of economic goals (such as optimization or cost-effectiveness) may meet some stakeholders’ objectives, but not at all those of others. Similarly, many cases from past experience exist where narrow definitions of “success” and inadequate consideration of diverse interests and concerns have led to resistance and policy blocking. Moreover, past lessons have shown that achieving desired outcomes at one level (say, the city or neighborhood) may not lead to or be consistent with desired outcomes at a regional or national level. The spatially interconnected and dynamic nature of climate change and similarly that of adaptation will, in fact, ensure such complications.

Clearly, the question of success is not simply to be decided on scientific, rational, objective, or procedural grounds, but is in important ways normative, historically contingent, and context-specific. Some dimensions of success will be outcome-based, yet, in many instances, success on all outcome dimensions cannot be achieved simultaneously (or ever). The question then arises how to adjudicate among goals, how to assess and negotiate trade-offs, prioritize goals and strategies, and move a process along that may be socially and politically deeply contested.

Given these premises, this volume does not offer a simplistic definition of success, but instead illuminates and critically assesses different dimensions of success and makes the case for which elements of successful adaptation to take seriously, when, where, and why. This is accomplished by drawing on the extant literature, a range of theoretical constructs, expert judgment (i.e. that of our contributing authors), and the practical experience gained in the case studies and examples presented here. We appraise how climatic and non-climatic stressors play a role, how scientific understanding as well as empirical grounding has informed climate adaptation decision-making, and how perceptions of trade-offs among priorities and other concerns can shape adaptation planning and implementation on the ground.

The overarching objective of this edited volume thus is to shed light on key issues that arise in on-the-ground adaptation to climate change – across a range of geographic areas and sectors – and how effective interactions between science and practice can assist in successfully adapting to a changing environment.

We begin by outlining six fundamental reasons why thinking carefully about adaptation success is useful or even necessary. In what follows from there, we define key concepts associated with climate adaptation and relevant work that can be drawn upon to inform questions involving “success.” In so doing, we set the stage for the chapters – provided by over three dozen contributors – that follow.

Six principled reasons for thinking about adaptation success

At its core, this book is driven by the concerns of those who are charged with making practical decisions on adaptation, now and in the near future. A variety of trends at the international, national, and local levels are driving this interest. It also reflects a rush in the scientific community to the topic of adaptation success. For example, while the scientific literature of the past decade yields only limited insights on adaptation success (as discussed below), a recent international conference (Adaptation Futures 2012 in May 2012 in Arizona, USA) saw a significant number of papers on “assessing adaptation effectiveness.” International aid and climate-focused programs as well as governments and private foundations are asking whether their expenditures are reducing vulnerabilities, increasing resilience, or succeeding in “climate-proofing” valuable assets. Whether driven by policy pressures, funding, or applied research interests, the motivations to examine adaptation success are now widely apparent. The reasons can be grouped into six general categories, loosely mirroring steps in the adaptation process itself (adapted from Moser and Snover 2012):

(1) Communication and public engagement: For years, public engagement on climate change has been challenging in many countries of the world, and continues to be so for a complex set of reasons (e.g. Reser and Swim 2011). Yet, engagement specifically on local impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation is arguably still in its infancy. Practitioners and scientists alike have recognized, however, that for many individuals climate change can easily become a threat so big and unwieldy that they find it difficult to hold on to a positive outlook and hope for the future (Vanderheiden 2011). Rather than only conveying an abstract scientific phenomenon, or, alternatively, evoking “gloom and doom” through a focus on big, unavoidable, negative impacts, communicating a positive vision and inviting stakeholders into becoming part of a co-creative process of success is thought to be a more effective approach to public engagement (e.g. Boswell et al. 2012; Moser 2012; Moser and Dilling 2007), and, as such, an important element of adaptation planning. And those directly involved in on-the-ground planning and decision-making know that effective communication and truly meaningful, empowered public engagement are necessary to a successful decision-making process (NRC 2009, 2008; Cooke and Kothari 2001).

(2) Deliberate planning and decision-making: Thinking carefully about what an adaptation strategy or option is meant to achieve and how it will do so is a fundamental element of good planning and decision-making practice: setting clear goals, identifying metrics of success, developing decision criteria, establishing timelines, and setting up appropriate decision processes (e.g. Margoluis et al. 2009b; Savory 1999). While clear goals and good decision-making may not guarantee that desired outcomes will be achieved, a lack of a clear goal has the potential to fundamentally undermine one’s ability to align strategy, means, and ends.

(3) Improved fit with other policy goals: Part of a deliberate and reflexive approach to decision-making is to examine a policy’s or strategy’s interaction with other policy objectives, whether related to climate change or non-climate issues. We single this out from (2) above, because of the emphasis here on the broader policy context, rather than the adaptation planning and decision-making process itself. Where adaptation policy supports other policy objectives (e.g. mitigation goals, broader development objectives, or disaster mitigation targets), the positive synergies can result in cost savings, greater political support, and other important efficiencies and benefits. Similarly, negative interactions need to be carefully considered, weighed, and managed. However, when adaptation is not yet guided by policy or mandate, while other policies already are codified in law or programs, the pursuit or implementation of these other policies can undermine the chances of focusing on or succeeding with adaptation (Moser 2011; Klein et al. 2007).

(4) Justification of adaptation expenditures: Most advance planning and implementation of adaptation options requires funding, which – when the necessary sums are large and choices need to be made among several policy priorities – demands persuasive arguments. There is evidence even from highly developed countries that a lack of funds for both adaptation planning and implementation is a major obstacle to progress (Carmin et al. 2012; Hart et al. 2012; Foster et al. 2011). Thus, demonstrating prospects of success or achievements of specified objectives and criteria becomes critical for garnering public and funding support (CREXE 2012; Sanahuja 2011).

(5) Accountability: The complementary argument arises out of the growing demand for accountability – in both the public and private sector for one-time or repeated expenditures; in fact, sometimes there are legal requirements to do so. Against this backdrop of a growing “culture of accountability” and calls for greater transparency, decision-makers will need to demonstrate that the money, effort, and staff time is well spent (e.g. Anderson 2011; Margoluis et al. 2009a; W.K. Kellogg Foundation 2004). Setting expectations for success will also help stakeholders decide whether to engage in an adaptation decision-making process and support monitoring and enforcement, but also place performance pressure on those who are thus committed to deliver (Moser 2009a).

(6) Support for learning and adaptive management: Finally, to the extent adaptation is viewed as an ongoing, iterative process of managing climate risks, ongoing monitoring, periodic assessment, and evaluation of progress or effectiveness against the goals and metrics set initially is an essential part of adaptive management and social learning (CCS 2011; NRC 2010a, b, d). Taken together, these six reasons for thinking about success balance the needs of being forward-looking and being reflective, between proving that something works and improving what is being done (W.K. Kellogg Foundation 2004).

Climate change, emerging impacts, and the urgent need to identify successful approaches to adaptation

Human-driven climate change (Box 1.1) is an established scientific fact. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established – through a series of independent but theoretically consistent and mutually reinforcing observations – that global warming is “unequivocal.” At the same time, the assessment established that most of the warming observed over the past half century is largely attributable to human forcing. Through improving detection and attribution work (e.g. Brander et al. 2011; Shindell et al. 2009; Allen et al. 2000; Tett et al. 1999), a consensus has emerged in the climate science community that observed climate changes – particularly over the past half century (with underlying changes in land use and emissions dating back much longer) – are largely driven by human activities and not merely the result of natural fluctuations (IPCC 2007).

The US National Research Council (NRC 2010a) confirmed this with new scientific insights in a more recent synthesis of the literature. With impacts already emerging across the globe, climate change is increasingly recognized as a challenge not just for future generations and decision-makers, but one increasingly pressing on decisions and challenges faced right now. That said, scientists expect that future impacts will be considerably more profound and affect numerous and wide-reaching environmental, economic, and social systems, albeit playing out differently in various contexts (Stafford-Smith et al. 2011; Parry et al. 2008; IPCC 2007). In fact, all sectors of society – water, energy, coasts, forests and conservation areas, agriculture and food security, human health, transportation, urban and rural communities and related infrastructure, marine environments and fisheries, and a broad array of related economic activities – are sensitive to changes in average climate and, particularly, to climatic extremes. However, depending on the specific exposure of ecological systems, valued resources, assets, or groups of people, and the adaptive capacities available and enacted, vulnerabilities to climate change vary dramatically across the globe. Researchers widely recognize that development pathways, the extent of poverty and level of human security, deep-seated structural factors, and other, non-climatic conditions and events are crucial co-determinants of both adaptive capacity and the ultimate impacts that are being and will be experienced from climate variability and change (IPCC 2012; O’Brien et al. 2008; Adger et al. 2007).

Not surprisingly, the specter of impacts has elevated adaptation to climate change on the agenda of international, national, sub-national, and loca...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Contents
• List of figures
• List of tables
• Notes on contributors
• List of acronyms
• Preface
• 1 Climate change and adaptation success: the scope of the challenge
• PART I Changing goals, trade-offs, and synergies
• PART II Institutional arrangements, interplay, and alignment
• PART III Science–practice interactions, decision support, and supporting norms
• PART IV Effective communication and engagement
• PART V Motivations, identities, reflexivity, and personal change
• Index