Handbook of Climate Change and India

Development, Politics and Governance

Navroz Dubash, Navroz Dubash, Navroz K. Dubash

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2012
• Print ISBN: 9781138924017
• eBook ISBN: 9781136521577
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Ecology
• Index: Politics & International Relations

How do policymakers, businesses and civil society in India approach the challenge of climate change? What do they believe global climate negotiations will achieve and how? And how are Indian political and policy debates internalizing climate change? Relatively little is known globally about internal climate debate in emerging industrializing countries, but what happens in rapidly growing economies like India's will increasingly shape global climate change outcomes.

This Handbook brings together prominent voices from India, including policymakers, politicians, business leaders, civil society activists and academics, to build a composite picture of contemporary Indian climate politics and policy. One section lays out the range of positions and substantive issues that shape Indian views on global climate negotiations. Another delves into national politics around climate change. A third looks at how climate change is beginning to be internalized in sectoral policy discussions over energy, urbanization, water, and forests. The volume is introduced by an essay that lays out the critical issues shaping climate politics in India, and its implications for global politics.

The papers show that, within India, climate change is approached primarily as a developmental challenge and is marked by efforts to explore how multiple objectives of development, equity and climate mitigation can simultaneously be met. In addition, Indian perspectives on climate negotiations are in a state of flux. Considerations of equity across countries and a focus on the primary responsibility for action of wealthy countries continue to be central, but there are growing voices of concern on the impacts of climate change on India. How domestic debates over climate governance are resolved in the coming years, and the evolution of India's global negotiation stance are likely to be important inputs toward creating shared understandings across countries in the years ahead, and identify ways forward. This volume on the Indian experience with climate change and development is a valuable contribution to both purposes.

Part I

Climate science and potential impacts

1 Impacts of climate change on India

J. Srinivasan

Introduction

In this chapter we will look at changes in climate that have occurred in India during the 20th century. We will examine both local and global factors that have influenced our climate. The predictions for climate change in India in the 21st century made by climate models will be discussed. The major challenges that we will face in order to adapt to impacts of climate change in the 21st century will be delineated.

One may be tempted to attribute all the changes that have occurred in India to global climate change and blame every adverse change that occurs in the environment on it. It is important to recognize that climate change is part of a larger problem of environmental degradation that is occurring in India. There are other local issues equally important such as the increase in air pollution and water pollution. These issues can be tackled without linking them to factors that cause global climate change.

The term climate change refers to long-term changes in temperature, humidity, clouds and rainfall and not to day-to-day variations (IPCC, 2007). Regional climate change is caused by both local and global factors. This difference is very important because if a regional climate change occurs on account of local factors then these changes can be mitigated by local actions. If a city is getting warmer because of too many concrete buildings, then this can be altered by local laws that require some greenery between buildings. On the other hand, if a city is warming because of global increase in carbon dioxide then the action to reduce CO₂ emission has to be initiated through global negotiations.

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the United Nations to enable scientists from all parts of the world to provide an authentic summary of our present understanding of the climate change induced by human beings and indicate the ways to mitigate this climate change or adapt to it. More than 500 scientists from different nations were involved in writing the fourth assessment report published by IPCC in 2007. This report was reviewed by more than 2,000 experts from all over the world (IPCC, 2007). The report is an excellent summary of our present state of understanding of the changes in the earth’s climate during the past 100 years. The report states that during the past 100 years the global mean temperature has increased by 0.74°C (Figure 1.1) (IPCC, 2007). This large increase cannot be attributed to natural causes such as the variation in radiation emitted by the sun. Complex climate models have shown that this increase is primarily triggered by a 33 per cent increase in CO₂ in the atmosphere during the past hundred years (see Box 1.1). The IPCC report has highlighted that the increase in global mean temperature has caused a rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice and an increase in sea level by around 17 cm during the past 100 years (Figure 1.2). The frequency of heavy rainfall events has increased in most land areas of the world during the past 50 years. These conclusions regarding global climate change are robust.

Figure 1.1 Increase in global mean temperature for various scenarios

Source: IPCC, 2007

Figure 1.2 The increase in global mean sea level in the past and the future. The changes in sea level are with reference to the 1960–1990 mean

Source: IPCC, 2007

However, observed changes in regional climate cannot be attributed confidently to one cause. This is because regional climate change is caused by both local and global factors. There have been large changes in air pollution and land-use pattern in India. This can cause changes in temperature that can be as important as those caused by an increase in CO₂ in the atmosphere. The IPCC report does not provide many examples of regional climate change that can be attributed confidently solely to the increase in CO₂ in the atmosphere.

BOX 1.1

The earth would have been about 33°C colder if minor gases like CO₂, methane, ozone and water vapor were absent (Srinivasan, 2008). Although the amount of these gases in the earth’s atmosphere is very small they have a profound impact on earth’s climate because of their ability to absorb radiation emitted by the earth’s surface (like the glass in a greenhouse). During the ice ages, which have occurred many times in the past, CO₂ and methane in the earth’s atmosphere was much lower than the present. The amount of CO₂ in the earth’s atmosphere has increased by more than 33 per cent during the past hundred and fifty years on account of the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) (IPCC, 2007). An increase in CO₂ in the atmosphere causes an increase in global mean temperature which in turn leads to increase in water vapour. Water vapour in the earth’s atmosphere causes more trapping of the thermal radiation emitted by earth. This ability of water vapour to amplify the initial warming caused by CO₂ is called a positive feedback. Another factor that can cause positive feedback is the change in cloud type and amount. In addition to changes induced by human beings there are also natural factors such as volcanic eruption and variation in the sun’s energy output that can also cause changes in the earth’s climate. In the 21st century, the changes induced by human beings will have a much greater impact on earth’s climate than natural causes.

Climate change in the 20th century in India

Temperature

Regional climate is influenced not only by the global increase in CO₂ but also by regional change in land use and particulates (like sulphate and soot) (Marshall et al., 2004). Hence it is not easy to attribute regional climate change to a single factor such as the monotonic increase in CO₂.

The all-India annual-mean surface air temperature was the highest in 2010 (IMD, 2010). On 26 May 2010, a maximum temperature of 53.5°C recorded in Pakistan was the highest temperature ever recorded in Asia. The All-India annual-mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.51°C in the past 106 years. Most of the increase was seen during the past 30 years during the pre-monsoon season and in winter (Rupa Kumar et al., 2002). The change in mean temperature was primarily on account of an increase in daily maximum temperature since the daily minimum temperature does not show any trend. In contrast the increase in global mean temperature is primarily on account of an increase in daily minimum temperature. The increase in maximum temperature in north India was found to be less than that in south India (Dash et al., 2007). This may be on account of a higher amount of particulates in the atmosphere in north India. The presence of particulates in the atmosphere reduces the surface temperature. The surface air temperature in Rajasthan has, however, decreased. This could be on account of an increase in area under irrigation in Rajasthan. The sea surface temperatures in the oceans around India have also warmed by 0.6°C during the past 50 years with the largest increase seen around the equatorial Indian Ocean (Rajeevan et al., 2008). The number of heat waves during the pre-monsoon period has shown an increasing trend. During the period 1970–2005, the number of hot days has increased from 2 days to 20 days in the west coast of India. The number of cold days has decreased by 10 days during the same period (Dash et al., 2007). In Nepal, the surface air temperature has increased 1° per decade during the past 30 years in some high altitude stations (Shreshta et al., 1999). This is much higher than that observed in most stations in India. The increase in surface temperature has been higher in some urban areas than in the rural areas. This is because of the storage of heat in concrete buildings and roads in urban areas. The increase in temperature in many urban areas during the past 100 years is both on account of urbanization and the increase in CO₂.

Rainfall

Most of the rainfall in India occurs during summer (June to September). This is known as the summer monsoon. The All India summer monsoon rainfall has not shown any significant trend during the last 140 years (Rajendran and Kitoh, 2008). In most years, the All India summer monsoon rainfall is within 10 per cent of the long-term mean. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall can be much lower than normal when the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal. These are called El Niño years. The Indian rainfall can also be below normal if the sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are above normal. Changes in sea surface temperatures in the tropical oceans thus exert a strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon. The increase in CO₂ in the earth’s atmosphere during the past hundred years has warmed the tropical oceans but this warming has not been uniform. The warming of the equatorial Indian Ocean has been much greater than that of the northern Indian Ocean.

Although the seasonal mean monsoon rainfall has not shown any trend, the extreme rainfall events have increased. During the past 50 years the heavy rainfall events (rainfall greater than 100 mm/day) has increased by 50 per cent in Central India (Goswami et al., 2006) This rapid increase in heavy rainfall events may be on account of global warming or increase in aerosols. The seasonal mean monsoon rainfall over India does not show any long-term trend because the increase in extreme rainfall events has been compensated by a decrease in moderate rainfall events (rainfall below 100 mm/day). The number of cyclonic disturbances has decreased from 7 per year 60 years ago to below 2 per year in the last decade (Dash et al., 2007). There has been a decrease in winter snowfall in Western Himalayas during the past 20 years (Shekhar et al., 2010). There is, however, no clinching evidence to prove that rainfall patterns have changed on account of the global increase in CO₂.

Glaciers

There is a lot of concern about the impact of global warming on glaciers. In most parts of the world glaciers are retreating. Some glaciers are retreating rapidly (more than 20 metres per year) while other are retreating slowly. Glaciers can retreat or advance due to natural climate fluctuations. During the past 50 years, many Himalayan glaciers have retreated more than 10 metres per year (Kulkarni et al., 2007) This is much faster than the gradual retreat of glaciers due to natural causes. During the past 25 years the Gangotri glacier has retreated by around 500 metres. The glaciers can retreat rapidly both on account of warmer air above it and lesser snow falling on it. In addition to change in temperature and snowfall, the rate of retreat of the glacier depends also upon the altitude of glacier. High altitude glaciers will not melt easily since the temperatures at high altitudes are below the temperatures at which ice melts. In many high altitude stations, the air temperatures have, however, increased more rapidly than in stations at lower altitudes. In the Indian Himalayas, small glaciers (area less than 1 square kilometre) have been retreating rapidly. In the Chenab basin in Himachal Pradesh the area of small glaciers has decreased by 38 per cent in the last 42 years while the area of large glaciers (area greater than 10 square kilometres) has decreased by 12 per cent in 42 years (Kulkarni et al., 2007). Hence many small glaciers in the Himalayas may disappear completely in the next 50 years. This is not true of large glaciers and the distinction between small and large glaciers was not made in of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Working Group II). This led to a lot of controversy which could have been avoided if this distinction had been made. Our knowledge about glacier retreat is limited because less than 0.2 per cent of the glaciers on the earth are monitored regularly.

Sea level

An increase in sea surface temperature will lead to an ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of Figures
• List of Tables
• Notes on contributors
• Foreword
• Preface and acknowledgements
• Introduction
• PART I. Climate science and potential impacts
• PART II. Past as prologue: early Indian perspectives on climate change
• PART III. The international climate negotiations: stakes, debates and dilemmas
• PART IV. Domestic politics of climate change
• PART V. Integrating climate change and development: a sectoral view
• PART VI. Looking to the future
• Index