Geographies of Ageing

Social Processes and the Spatial Unevenness of Population Ageing

Amanda Davies, Amity James

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2016
• Print ISBN: 9781409417767
• eBook ISBN: 9781317129240
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Social Sciences
• Subtopic: Geography
• Index: Geography

Population ageing is projected to affect all countries across the world in coming decades. The current rate of population ageing is unprecedented in human history with population projections indicating that this will be an enduring trend. Moreover, population ageing is spatially pervasive, affecting every man, woman and child. This has considerable implications for policy responding to the economic, social and healthcare outcomes of population ageing. The potential economic implications have been likened to those of the 2008 global financial crisis. This book examines the patterns and causes of uneven population ageing. It identifies those countries and localities most likely to experience population ageing and the reasons for this. Attention is also given to the role that youth migration, labour force migration, retirement migration and ageing in place have in influencing the spatial concentrations of older people. The book brings together a range of diverse international case studies to illustrate the importance of understanding the causes of population ageing. Case studies include a review of ageing in Florida's (USA) labour force, an investigation into the housing arrangements for the elderly in Northern Ireland and an assessment of the environmental stewardship activities of Grey Nomads on Western Australia's remote north coast.

Chapter 1
Introduction

1.1 Introduction

Population ageing is frequently referred to as the major demographic challenge or crisis facing many countries across the world (Bartlett and Phillips, 1997, Harper, 2006, Restrepo and Rozental, 1994). The potential economic implications of population ageing have been likened to those of the 2008 global financial crisis (Promnitz, 2010). Indeed, Standard and Poor’s (2010a) highlighted the potential economic impact of global population ageing in their 2010 rankings of countries creditworthiness. Population ageing also has implications for the security of the labour force and demand on health care and welfare systems. Furthermore, it has implications for the social and cultural stability of places.

The current rate of population ageing is unprecedented in human history with world population projections indicating that this will be an enduring trend. Moreover, population ageing is spatially pervasive, affecting every man, women and child (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, 2001).

Population ageing is a shift in the age distribution of a population over time toward older ages (Demeny and McNicoll, 2003). In most regions of the world, ageing is caused by declining fertility and mortality rates; however, in some regions migration also plays an important role (Lutz, Sanderson and Scherbov, 2008). There are very considerable variations in ageing between regions, countries and even within countries. This spatial variability in ageing is caused by a range of social, economic, geographical, cultural and political factors, which, in turn, affect fertility and mortality rates and migration patterns.

In this book we investigate the patterns and causes of spatial variability in ageing. We consider this variability at a number of geographical scales and consider a range of methods and theories for explaining observed trends. The aim of the book is to highlight the spatial and temporal complexity in population ageing and the importance of place specific factors in driving spatial unevenness in population ageing. The findings of this study are relevant to debates informing the critical development of policy to deal with the health, workforce, housing, social and financial outcomes from population ageing.

1.2 The Argument and Approach

Over the last decade, governments across the world have reinforced the view that ageing populations present a major challenge to the economic and social sustainability of nations. For example, Australia’s government described that country’s ageing population as ‘the looming fiscal challenge’ (Henry, 2004:81). Such interpretations of the economic implications of population ageing have been echoed by a diverse suite of commentators. For example, Peter Peterson, Deputy Chairman of The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 1998 and 1999 (and Chairman in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003), commented on America’s ageing population ‘[w]e face a threat more grave and certain than those posed by chemical weapons, nuclear proliferation, or ethnic strife: the age wave’. As life expectancy grows and fertility rates decline, senior citizens will make up an ever-larger share of the total population. The effects of this demographic shift will be staggering. It will come with a whopping price tag, which will place a massive burden on an ever-smaller working-age population’ (Peterson, 1999:1). Likewise, Andrew Geddes (Thursday 20 June 2002) a reader in politics at the University of Liverpool wrote in the BBC’s News World Edition that Europe had an ageing population and asked ‘who will produce the wealth to sustain the retired population?’ Duncan (2007:1), from the United Kingdom’s popular national newspaper The Times, commented ‘[m]ost of us understand that Europe is turning grey … but if this problem has become pretty well-known, the startling size of it is sometimes forgotten. So, too, is its urgency’.

Recognising the increasing levels of concern about the potential implications of population ageing from governments, business interests and social welfare and support agencies, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) established the Working Group on Ageing in December 2008. The Working Group, although more measured in their account of the potential issues associated with ageing populations, also considered population ageing to be problematic to the social and economic development of nations. The UNECE (2008:1) commented ‘[t]he world population is passing through a demographic transition. Ageing is going to be the distinctive trait of this century, with the share of older individuals in the population ever increasing. While ageing represents a triumph of medical, social and economic advances, it also presents challenges to existing systems of social support and affects virtually all domains of society’.

The UNECE, like many political and economic commentators, identified ‘ageing populations’ as those experiencing a growth in the proportion of the population aged 65 years or over (here after 65+). Following from this definition, the group aged 65+ tends to be characterised as homogenous in terms of participation in the workforce, economic capacities, and demands for social, financial and healthcare assistance. Furthermore, for the most part, older populations tend to be considered as being non-migratory and evenly spatially distributed within the wider population. Homogenous characterisations tend to depict older people as being more financially dependent on the state, requiring higher levels of health care and social assistance, and as having only a minor role in achieving the political, social and cultural aspirations of nations, when compared to the ‘working age’ population. This understanding of older populations ignores cultural differences between nations. It marginalises the value of ‘non-production’ and ‘non-consumer’ activities. It also grossly miscalculates the considerable contribution older people make to the social, economic and cultural landscapes of nations.

In this book we challenge these homogenous understandings of older populations and population age structures and population ageing. We do this by examining patterns and causes of spatial variability in population ageing. We argue that population ageing is spatially uneven and that this is a result of a complex of social, economic, political and environmental processes. Many of the drivers of spatial unevenness in population ageing are place specific and operate at different spatial scales. Consequently, the implications of population ageing are diverse, and in many cases population ageing can deliver positive socio-economic outcomes for localities.

Studying ageing populations and population ageing has traditionally been the domain of gerontologists. Consequently, the bulk of research on population ageing has centred on health related issues and policy. In this book, we are fundamentally concerned with the geographical dimensions of population ageing – the spatial patterns of ageing and the place-based social processes that underpin these. Consequently, the methodological and theoretical approaches adopted in this book have been informed by contemporary developments in population geography.

While the boundaries of population geography have been contested over the last two decades, research has remained substantively concerned with the spatial manifestations of demographic trends. For extending contemporary dialogues about population ageing, population geography is well positioned. The sub-discipline has evolved over the last few decades, with considerable renewal, revision and expansion of methodological and theoretical approaches. In reaction to cautions against data-driven studies, population geographers have moved increasingly towards incorporating cultural meanings into explanations of demographic processes (Fricke, 1997). This approach, often considered as an outcome of the so-called ‘cultural turn’, challenges positivist practices and theories popular within classical demographic studies. We argue that the contemporary methodological and theoretical ‘tool-kit’ of population geography lends itself to expanding the existing research agenda on ageing (Warnes, 1990, Andrews and Phillips, 2005).

The methodological and theoretical revision and renewal in population geography did not occur organically in response to the ‘cultural turn’ in other parts of geography or related disciplines. Importantly, there were numerous calls for population geographers to reflect on the methods and strategies they employed and to invest more effort into theory-driven studies (Silvey, 2004). Specifically, commentators including Graham (1999, 2000), White and Jackson (1995) and Halfacree and Boyle (1993) argued that, as a matter of urgency, population geographers needed to more fully engage with wider theoretical debates and developments within human geography. These commentators claimed that, inter alia, the potential contribution of population studies to human geography had been limited by the sub-discipline’s failure to engage fully with postmodernist and poststructuralist literatures.

Since at least the 1950s, space was conceptualised in most population studies as a tangible surface on which the relationships between measurable processes were played out. This conceptualisation of space and the traditions of data-led empirical analysis attracted scholars from other disciplines including demographics and economics, with a considerable literature quickly developing. However, by the 1970s articulated criticisms of this positivist approach were increasingly published, with calls for space to be considered as subjective and the role of human agency to be more fully investigated. This prompted a shift towards postmodernist approaches. This development was particularly meaningful for migration studies, with the notion of subjective distance informing new approaches to data collection and analysis. It was not, however, until the 1990s that population geographers began articulating the need to investigate new approaches and methods in their own academic publications (White and Jackson, 1995). Up until that point, much of the critique on the methods and traditions within population geography came from outside the discipline.

The mid 1990s marked a time of change not only in population geography but also the wider discipline of human geography. Due in no small part to the work of social theorists including Lefebver and Bourdieu (to name but two) geographers took hold of the humanistic notion of space as a social construction. This notion, which had first appeared in popular geographical writings in the 1970s, provided a platform for reflection on traditional approaches and techniques in human geography. Behaviouralist and humanist approaches became increasingly popularised in human geography and, consequently, alternative research methods were tested and refined (see Castells, 1983, Massey, 1995 for earlier examples and, Whatmore, 2002, Gibson-Graham, 2006, Thrift, 2007 for recent works). While the emergence of behaviouralist and humanist traditions should not be considered a paradigm shift (Hubbard et al., 2004), it did undoubtedly provide the basis for much of the criticism about the subdiscipline of population geography. Population geography appeared to be lagging behind the broader subdiscipline of human geography in terms of theoretical and methodological development, with some commentators arguing it was in danger of being cast as irrelevant. Of this period Graham (2000:257) summarised, ‘[i]n the last decade there have been calls for population geographers to become more involved in the wider debates of human geography and related social sciences, including a plea for (re)theorisation of the subdiscipline. Yet there has been little response’.

In the last decade, led by migration researchers, population geographers have responded to the challenge of developing stronger connections with social theory and, thereby, the broader discipline. More specifically, population geographers lent considerable weight to the development of contemporary understandings of spatial mobility, particularly in regard to indigenous populations and socially marginalised groups. While some argue that this connection with broader social theory represents a reconstruction of population geography (Silvey, 2004), more cautiously the changes can be thought of as a broadening of the methodological and theoretical tool-kit. Many population geographers still use traditional statistical techniques and empiricist approaches, but at the same time situate their investigations within theoretically nuanced contemporary dialogues. Our work, it is hoped, will contribute to this tool-kit and these dialogues.

This book, therefore, comes at an exciting time in population geography, and more broadly human geography. It further develops the connections between population geography and social theory through examining the patterns, causes and implications of spatial unevenness in population ageing. It focuses on population ageing, exploring the where and why of spatial trends of population ageing. The approach of analysing spatial trends in one particular age group is adopted in this book as it provides a useful and relevant platform for negotiating the broader theoretical and methodological debates in human geography. In this book, we consider processes and trend of demographic ageing at a number of spatial scales. We complement this multiple scale approach by drawing on a range of research methods and data sources. For our investigation into spatial trends in global population ageing we use a variety of statistical procedures to assess trends in secondary quantitative data. Secondary quantitative data is also used to identify causes of spatial unevenness of ageing within countries and states. We present a number of case studies that consider localised processes of spatially uneven population ageing. These case studies draw on in depth interviews, household surveys, ethnographies, thematic website and blog analysis and questionnaires. Further to these data, throughout the book we present thematic reviews of relevant literature.

Through using various methods, data sources and theoretical platforms to explore geographies of ageing, we aim to participate in the wider debates in human geography concerning the value of empirical research and various methodological approaches. Therefore, the book seeks a broader audience amongst human geographers, not only those interested in population ageing. The following section details the structure and contents of each chapter and, in doing so, sketches out our core arguments.

1.3 Book Structure

To understand the causes and implications of spatial unevenness of population ageing, we must first consider the patterns of spatial distribution of older populations. Part I ‘Spatial Nature of Ageing’, contains two data rich chapters that outline current and projected spatial patterns of population ageing. The first of these, Chapter 2, looks at global ageing trends. In this chapter, country level census data is used to identify those countries that have the greatest proportion of people aged 65+. We organise the data to examine how useful traditional geo-political regional groupings are for explaining spatial unevenness in population ageing. For example, we ask ‘is Europe’s population ‘older’ than Africa’s?’ and ‘do Asia and Oceania have similar ageing patterns and, if so, are the drivers of these similar?’. We introduce demographic transition theory and how this relates to the unevenness in spatial patterns of ageing across the globe. In Chapter 2 we find that population ageing is indeed an issue facing all countries and regions of the world. However, this population ageing is spatially uneven with geographically, economically and culturally ‘neighbouring’ countries often having remarkably different age profiles. Furthermore, the rate at which developing countries are progressing through the demographic transition will have considerable implications for the strategies that can be used to reduce, or mitigate against, potential negative social and economic impact of population ageing.

Chapter 3 narrows the focus of our investigation to examine within country trends of population ageing. For this chapter, we draw on the case example of Australia. Australia provides a particularly useful case study as the population has been relatively free from any major demographic shocks associated with war, civil conflict or natural disaster. The population age structure has also been relatively uninfluenced by mass in-migration of economic or political migrants. Furthermore, Australia has an average age profile and average projected population ageing trends when compared to other advanced industrialised nations.

Chapter 3 is structured into three sections. The first section centres on identifying differences in ageing trends between urban and rural regions. As with Chapter 2, we seek to explain observed differences by considering how spatial variability in ageing is related to spatial variability in socio-economic development status. In the second section, we further narrow the focus of the study to consider trends within rural Australia. With this narrowing of focus we introduce migration as an explaining variable for spatial unevenness in ageing. We investigate how patterns of net youth out-migration and retirement in-migration to regions of high natural amenity shape the age structures of different localities. In the final section of Chapter 3, we consider within city variability in ageing. For this discussion, we draw on the case studies of Sydney and Perth – the largest population hubs on the east and west coasts of Australia respectively. Through the examination of within city trends we introduce the concept of ‘ageing in place’. We also briefly consider the implications of urban land use policy and housing policy in shaping localised spatial patterns of ageing. Chapter 3 highlights the importance of scale in considering the drivers and implications of population ageing.

Part 2 ‘Complex Drivers of Ageing’ contains Chapters 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8. These chapters consider a number of possible explanations for the observed spatial unevenness of population ageing. Our approach in writing these chapters was to gradually layer the argument with differing perspectives, supported by a diverse selection of case examples. The purpose of this layering approach was to illustrate how social processes, operating at different spatial scales, often intersect in unexpected ways to influence the demographic structure of populations. Through adopting this approach, we were able to illustrate the importance of both place based characteristics and individual agency in influencing spatial unevenness in population ageing.

Chapter 4 examines how processes of migration drive spatial patterns of population ageing. Migration is not a one-way movement, but rather it is considered to be associated with the life course. Migrations most often happen as people transition from one life phase to another, for example, when entering employment for the first time, when commencing raising a family, after raising a family, at retirement, or as illness or impairment in older age restricts mobility and independence. In Chapter 4 we focus on processes of migration at retirement. The chapter commences with a review of literature on international retirement migration. This review considers how patterns of international retirement migration are influenced by localised amenity factors of both the sending and receiving places; the influence of the economic and social conditions in origin and destination localities are also considered. This includes international governmental agreements regarding pensio...

Table of contents

• Cover Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Contents
• List of Figures
• List of Tables
• About the Authors
• Acknowledgements
• 1 Introduction
• PART I SPATIAL NATURE OF AGEING
• PART II COMPLEX DRIVERS OF AGEING
• PART III IMPLICATIONS OF AGEING
• References
• Index