Uneven course to the Meiji Restoration
When people hear the term ‘Meiji Restoration’, they generally bring to mind the revival of the monarchy in January 1868 and the Charter Oath in April of the same year. The image of a modern centralised state, absorbing European and American civilisation, having the goal of ‘prosperous country, strong military’ (fukoku kyōhei), as well as ‘government in touch with public opinion’ (kōgi yoron) appeared with great clarity. The latter was also known as a consultative system (gōgisei).
Arriving at this, however, required many twists and turns over 20 years or more, while many leaders and thinkers struggled against great odds in this historic cause.
The reason why such a bitter struggle was needed was the appearance of the pro-Emperor, anti-foreign argument stimulated by foreign pressure. Military pressure by the Western powers, symbolised by the arrival of Commodore Perry in 1853, brought together Japanese ancient tradition (‘revere the Emperor’ – sonnō) and a tradition that had lasted 250 years (‘expel the barbarian’ – jōi). When these two ‘traditions’ were brought together by the Mito school and Yoshida Shōin, as a national policy of ‘revere the Emperor, expel the barbarian (i.e. foreigners)’ (sonnō jōi), a feisty set of national principles was forged.
On the other hand, Japan in the Bakumatsu period, having become accustomed to peace in one country after 250 years of being a closed country, was merely one of a number of small weak countries around the world, and lacked sufficient military and other forces to repel demands from the great powers for the opening of the country. No realistic choice was possible apart from this. For the Bakufu (Shogunate), which controlled Japan, the only thing to do was to open the country. The term used at the time for a combination of support for the Bakufu and acceptance of national opening to the outside world was sabaku kaikoku (‘support the Bakufu, open Japan’).
It was very difficult to overcome the conflict between ‘revere the Emperor, expel the foreigner’ and ‘support the Shogun, open the country’. This was not only a basic conflict in foreign policy; whether to revere the Emperor or support the Shogun also represented a fundamental division within domestic politics. Over the 15 years between Commodore Perry’s arrival in 1853 and the Meiji Restoration in 1868, finding how to reconcile these two conflicts was a tremendous struggle.
The four stages of this great struggle
Whether to revere the Emperor or support the Shogun, whether to expel the foreigner or open the country (two rival versions of the national interest) – both these issues developed in stages.
The first stage was the Chinese defeat in the Opium War of 1842. The idea that, emboldened by their victory, the British would in the near future make sure that Japan opened its doors to the outside world appeared crystal clear to a part of the Japanese leadership. From then on some people soon came to propose that Japan should build up a navy, fortresses and a modern army.
The second stage, obviously, was the arrival of the American fleet in 1853 and 1854. Japan could not resist the demand for the country to be opened up, made by Commodore Perry backed by powerful warships. Had Japan refused and gone to war, defeat would have been inevitable. But if the Bakufu, which had always identified national isolation with the national interest, accepted the demand and opened the country, it would lose the legitimacy of its rule.
As for the third stage, at the time of Perry’s arrival the American Government merely demanded ‘harmony and friendship’ without any mention of trade, but from 1857 to 1858, through the first US Consul-General to be posted in Japan, that government pressed hard for the signature of a trade treaty. At this time, in addition to the conflict between expelling the foreigner and opening the country, a conflict was emerging between the Bakufu and powerful domain lords (daimyō) over the succession to the Shōgun. This meant that both foreign and domestic policy were simultaneously in a state of confusion. As a result, the Senior Minister (tairō), Ii Naosuke, arbitrarily decided to sign a trade treaty between Japan and the US, while the powerful feudal lords and their retainers who were his opponents were subjected to a campaign of wholesale arrests known as the Ansei Purge.
For the time being this ended in a victory for the ‘country-opening’ policies of the Bakufu. The fact, however, of going ahead without the permission of the Emperor strengthened the links between sonnō and jōi, while on the other hand, neglect of the opinions of powerful lords led to the emergence of the ‘union of Court and Shogunate’ argument. Opening the country was seen as desirable, but insisting that to ignore the Emperor and powerful han (domain) lords was not to be tolerated became the basis of fierce criticism of the Bakufu, as well as of sonnō jōi.
As for the fourth stage, these two different forces criticising the Bakufu – those advocating Union of Court and Shogunate (kōbu gattai), and those advocating sonnō jōi – clashed head on in the period 1863–4. The Aizu han, which supported the Bakufu, and the Satsuma han, which supported Union of Court and Shogunate, came together and plotted to isolate the Chōshū han, which advocated sonnō jōi. These occurrences are known as the 18th August 1863 coup and the Kinmon Incident (1864).
Meanwhile, however, what had been a pro-Bakufu, country-opening argument was replaced by that for unifying Court and Shogunate while also seeking to open the country, whereas the Chōshū domain continued to maintain the national interest argument combining sonnō and jōi. It was clear that the Chōshū domain on its own was no match, either militarily or economically, for an alliance of the Bakufu with the powerful domains. Even so, for the Chōshū domain, which sought to defend ‘national interest’, opposing those wishing to open the country as well as opposing the Bakufu was an attractive option. The fact that in the 1864 Kinmon coup the Chōshū domain was given the insulting title of ‘Emperor’s enemy’ was not sufficient to put an end to the sonnō jōi problem.
The only way of solving this was to shelve the problem of choosing between the expulsion of foreigners and opening the country, and reduce the choice to one of revering the Emperor as against supporting the Bakufu. If this could be done, then it would make it possible for Satsuma and Chōshū to link hands on the principle of ‘revering the Emperor and overthrowing the Bakufu’. If it was possible to wrap up what had been the national interest for about 250 years – namely ‘closed country’ – in what had been the national interest since antiquity – namely reverence for the Emperor – then the powerful domain lords who emphasised unifying Court and Shogunate were finding that the basis for supporting the Bakufu was becoming less persuasive.
At a time when the conflict between opening the country and expelling the foreigner had been shelved, the demand to respect the views of the powerful domain lords in favour of uniting Court and Shogunate mutated into a demand to respect the opinions, not only of domain lords, but also of powerful retainers, to open up political debate. So when ‘revere the Emperor and overthrow the Bakufu’, and ‘open up the debate’ became slogans widely used by powerful lords and domain (han) samurai, the fourth stage of ‘desperate struggle’ reached its end, and circumstances moved rapidly on to the Meiji Restoration. My hypothesis is that this happened in 1864, and that its promoter was Saigō Takamori of the Satsuma domain.