Description plus examples
This chapter is an attempt systematically to explore what I understand to be the notion of the logic of the situation. It seems to me one of Sir Karl Popperâs most powerful yet simple philosophical ideas, and with the help of it one can sort out a great many issues in the methodology of the social sciences. Unfortunately it is nowhere fully explained outside of lectures.2
Yet it is not hard to do so. In a nutshell the idea is this. Situational logic (1) is explanation (2) of human behaviour (3) as attempts to achieve (4) goals or aims (5) with limited means (6). Each of the numbered key terms in this sentence will have a subsequent section of the chapter devoted to it.3 Before plunging into this I want to give some illustrative examples of how problems can be tackled in accordance with the logic of the situation. I want to take problems displaying the following characteristics: one stemming from the interaction of an individual quirk and the social situation, involving someone whose aims (or reasons) are clear but who has misappreciated the changing situation; one where the action is unremarkably typical but nevertheless puzzling because it is not clear if conscious aims (or reasons) are involved and if so what; and finally, one where a society-wide problem cannot be explained directly as a result of anyone aiming at the problematic state of affairs or of failing to appreciate what the situation is. The first is satisfied by explaining the case of a cautious driver who has nevertheless caused a multiple collision; the second is satisfied by the problem of explaining why a gentleman raises his hat to a lady; the third is satisfied by explaining the apparent erosion of the social fabric in Libya despite strongly conservative forcesâIslam and the monarchy.
Example 1 How could an otherwise cautious, even blameless, driver suddenly find himself the cause of a serious multiple collision? It was an accident, we say. But is that the best we can do to explain it? Let us try further inquiry. The accident happened on a freeway. Cautious Mr X had never driven on a freeway before and did not realize that it is a completely different driving situation from that in a typical urban main street. Let us expand this further.
Learning to drive parallels in significant ways learning to live in a society. Traffic and its institutions surround us, but until the statutory age we are not allowed to enter the driving situation and master its logic. One observable consequence of doing so, when we get around to it, is that our behaviour as pedestrians improves. Knowing what it is like to drive a vehicle on a road, we can as pedestrians anticipate some of the dangers and act accordingly. I developed this hypothesis in Hong Kong to explain the apparently careless, even kamikaze, behaviour of the pedestrians. Never having sat behind a wheel, therefore trusting naĂŻvely in the ability of cars to stop for them, the pedestrians act as though they were oblivious to danger. It says much for the skill of Hong Kong drivers, and the slow speeds they are forced to go, that the accident rate is as low as it is.
Take now this newish situation on the roadsâfreeways (called âmotorwaysâ in Britain). Freeways organize traffic somewhat differently from ordinary roads and as a consequence quite new kinds of accidents occur. Cars collide even in cases where, quite clearly, there is no obstruction of vision involved. Multiple collisions occur. Why? For different reasons on different sections. Take first the freeway entry ramp. One is ordinarily trained to enter a transverse traffic stream by stopping the car, waiting for a gap in the oncoming traffic, then swinging out into it. On a freeway one is expected to behave quite differently, in fact to speed up and slip into the stream. Why? Because at freeway speeds a gap in the oncoming traffic would have to be very big to give one time to spot it, react to it and then accelerate from rest. In fact, much correct freeway behaviour consists in travelling at a speed comparable to that of the other traffic and then changing lanes when wanting to speed up or to slow down and get off. The cautious driver we are considering who tries to enter the freeway in the same manner that he turns into his local main street would cause a multiple back-up collision if he stopped on the feeder ramp, and another in the oncoming traffic lanes were he to try to accelerate from rest into a gap he has spotted, for this would force oncoming cars drastically to slow down. And yet, in behaving this way he might well imagine he has proceeded with exemplary caution.
Take now exiting from the freeway. Driving along a main street and wanting to exit you proceed slowly, spot the turn you are looking for, then signal, slow down and turn off. On the freeway, slowing down may again cause a multiple back-up collision if the traffic is dense. The problem is that, because of the speed on the freeway, exit signs are posted well in advance of turn-offs, so that, without loss of speed, the driver can anticipate his exit and move across to the inside lane in time to slip into the exit ramp, without slowing down or interfering with through traffic; he slows only when he has been fed off the main traffic lanes.
Take, lastly, simply cruising along. Normally, on a main street cars proceed slowly and bunched together. There is small danger in this, for they can almost stop dead, and at low speeds little harm is done by a rear-end bump. On the freeway, however, bunching is extremely dangerous. It prevents lane-changing, and makes reaction to sudden slow-downs very difficult. Result, more collisions.
Learning about traffic is a model for learning about society. A network of institutions (road signs, lanes, laws), customs (keeping your distance), expectations (that others know the rules), and ideas about all these, and people working together more or less in harmony. In addition to strictly correct driving, there is also courteous, defensive and unselfish driving. There are also vices like over-cautiousness, and competitiveness. The decisive simplification involved in comparing society to traffic is that, whereas in society people and their aims are diverse, on the freeway most people share one aim: to get safely and swiftly from A to B. Special problems arise, like the case of our cautious driver, as unintended consequences of the building of the freeways, and these problems can be understood by contrasting the logic of the freeway situation as experienced by the cautious but experienced driver with that of the cautious but inexperienced driver. Their aims are identical. Their situations are objectively identical. Only their appreciation of the situation, their expectations, their grasp of its logic, are different.
Example 2 A man raises his hat to a lady. Why? Answer: a ritual gesture of respect observed only by those who know the received ritual and who wish to express their respect. Unlike handshaking upon introduction, which seems to have lost any significance it may have had, hat-raising is sufficiently uncommon (decline of hats?) yet known, to be significant. Refusing to shake hands or averting oneâs face in the street remain significant; not raising the hat is hardly noticeable.
Much of social life turns on arbitrary but significant gestures of this sort. The significance is sometimes clear, sometimes less so. Japanese audiences hiss: it is not at once apparent to the outsider that this is appreciative; many cultures take the burp after a meal as a mandatory gesture of satisfaction, others as rude. Social usages of this kind are peculiar in that most of those performing them could not explain their origin, even tentatively. In the hat-raising example it is unclear whether any aim is involved, except perhaps in the most attenuated sense. Refusing to shake hands upon introduction is not problematic in the same way. What, then, are we to make of these apparently aimless social usages? The logic of the situation seems to be this. Those who follow the usages are members of a society who have learned its conventions and who either accept them, or do not feel strongly enough to wish to flout them. Given this attitude they, on occasion, may find themselves wishing to indicate or communicate their respect for a certain woman. Their knowledge of the society tells them that raising the hat, rather than kissing the feet, is the correct gesture. Alternatively, they know it to be de rigueur in the society to express respect for women by raising the hat and they do not wish to be regarded as gauche; in fact they aim to integrate their behaviour into the society.
Example 3 âLibyaâs Oil Riches Erode Simple Life.â4 This is a case of the unintended and, it would seem, unwanted consequences of oil wealth. (Subsequently, the monarchy has been overthrown in a coup dâĂ©tat.) Into Libyan society came wealth; then (1) alcohol; (2) shepherds drive fast cars to clandestine bars and get into fatal crashes when driving home drunk; (3) the newly rich, able to afford the pious pilgrimage to Mecca, are also able to seek diversion in the fleshpots of Athens, Rome, and Cairo; (4) the King, as spiritual counsellor, is overwhelmed by citizens asking how to reconcile their dissolute new life with Islam. So the exploitation of oil is having a feedback on religious, social and political mores. None of these effects was intended by anyone, and yet no one seems to be able to do anything about itâthe King stays out of town and inaccessible, trying to negotiate a middle course.
So the oil producers may not aim to change the society, the King may aim to minimize change, the shepherds aim to enjoy their new wealth and to follow their religion of Islam. Into this confusion of aims comes the factor of enormous wealth. The monarch finds it impossible to carry out his religious duty to answer all problems and questions; he has only one wife, although he encourages other men to have more; his wife is not veiled, although most wives of orthodox men are. And the newly wealthy shepherds behave erratically.
Clearly, we are seeing here a certain incompatibility of aims. The aim to have and enjoy wealth is conflicting severely with the aim to be religious, and the latter is suffering. What everyone is avoiding is the making of some sensible choices between these conflicting aims. As a result, what no one is aiming at, the erosion of the simple good life, is happening.
Sources in economics, Weber and Popper
Popper describes how (Popper, 1957a, historical note), after the original publication in German of his classic, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, he turned his attention to the social sciences to see if and how they differed methodologically. In concentrating on economics, he was in fact concerned to see if he could criticize his own theory of science as progressing by means of conjectures and refutations. Economics was, and is, the most developed social science, and he analysed its explanations of, for example, the determination of price in a free market, as involving aims (maximizing profit, minimizing loss), situation (conditions in production and in the market, the nature of their institutions), and the most efficacious means of gaining the former in the latter (pure economic theory). The price in a free market is an unintended outcome of sellers and buyers attempting to minimize their outgoings and maximize their incomings, given the degree of competition, the elasticity of supply, and the âperfectionâ of the market. Popper seems to have generalized this analysis to see if it would serve for the social sciences as a whole. Bureaucratic delays, road accidents, train timetables, the rise of philosophical schools, the breakdown of democracyâexplanations of all these could be analysed in terms of the same methodological model. Of course, some social phenomena could be explained simply by aims and the fact that the situation did not thwart attempts to achieve them. My being a passenger on a train can be explained by the lack of impediments to my aiming to be such. This sort of case is relatively unproblematic. What is more problematic is when large-scale events, like the breakdown of democracy in Germany, are explained solely by reference to someone, or some groupâs aim. General recourse to this mode of explanation Popper calls âthe conspiracy theory of societyâ. In general, while conspiracies do exist, by definition they are dedicated to controversial caus...