Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Sub-Saharan Africa

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

• Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
• eBook ISBN:
  9781513514055
• Year: 2019

NONE

Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa

International Monetary Fund

Washington, D.C.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Navigating Uncertainty

2019

OCT

World Economic and Financial Surveys

Regional Economic Outlook

Sub-Saharan Africa

Navigating Uncertainty

OCT

19

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

©2019 International Monetary Fund

Cataloging-in-Publication Data

IMF Library

Names: International Monetary Fund, publisher.

Title: Regional economic outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa : navigating uncertainty.

Other titles: Sub-Saharan Africa : navigating uncertainty. | World economic and financial surveys.

Description: [Washington, DC] : International Monetary Fund, 2019. | World economic and financial surveys, 0258–7440. | Oct. 19. | Includes bibliographical references.

Identifiers: ISBN 9781513514055 (paper)

ISBN 9781513515731 (Web PDF)

LCSH: Africa, Sub-Saharan—Economic conditions. | Economic development—Africa, Sub-Saharan. | Africa, Sub-Saharan—Economic policy.

Classification: LCC HC800.R4 2019

Te Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa is published twice a year, in the spring and fall, to review developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF Management.

Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090 (U.S.A.)

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E-mail : [email protected]

www.imf.org

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Contents

• Abbreviations
• Acknowledgments
• Executive Summary
• 1. Navigating Uncertainty
• Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects
• Risks to them Outlook
• Policies
• References
• Boxes
• 1.1. Improving Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa
• 1.2. Lessons from Other Regional Trade Arrangements for the African Continental Free Trade Agreement
• Figures Chapter 1
• 1.1. Global Import Volume Growth and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, July 2017-July 2019
• 1.2. Projected Change in Commodity Prices: Expected Changes, Average 2019–20 versus 2018
• 1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Eurobond Issuances, 2010–19
• 1.4. Sahel Countries: Conflicts with Fatalities, 2018
• 1.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP per Capita, 1990–2023
• 1.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth versus Merchandise Exports Concentration Index
• 1.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Histogram of GDP Growth, 2022
• 1.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Depreciation and Consumer Price Index Infation, 2019
• 1.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Defcit and Consumer Price Index Infation, 2019 Projections
• 1.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Public Debt, 2011–23
• 1.11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Noncommodity Primary Fiscal Defcit, 2013 versus 2018
• 1.12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Debt Risk Status for PRGT Eligible Low-Income Developing Countries, 2008–19
• 1.13. Sub-Saharan Africa: Composition of Public Debt, 2000–17
• 1.14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Contributions to Current Account Adjustment
• 1.15. Sub-Saharan Africa: Reserve Buffers
• 1.16. Sub-Saharan Africa: Domestic Arrears and Nonperforming Loan Ratio, 2018
• 1.17. Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Credit to the Private Sector and Domestic Currency Public Debt, 2014–18
• 1.18. Sub-Saharan Africa: Export Growth, Jan. 2014-Jun. 2019
• 1.19. Sub-Saharan Africa: Foreign Currency Share in Total Debt, Median, 2010–19
• 1.20. Downside Risk Scenario: Impact of Escalating Trade Tensions, Global Slowdown, and Tightening Global Financial Conditions on Sub-Saharan African Growth
• 1.21. Incidence of Natural Disasters, 1980s-2000s
• 1.22. Sub-Saharan Africa: Net Job Creation, 2010–30
• 1.23. Sub-Saharan Africa: Changes in Monetary Policy Rates since December 2018
• 1.24. Sub-Saharan Africa: Primary Fiscal Balance and Debt-Stabilizing Balance, 2014–18
• 1.25. Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Noncommodity Primary Fiscal Deficit, 2018 versus 2023
• 1.26. Sub-Saharan Africa: Bank Credit to Private Sector, 2006–18
• 1.27. Number of Available Macroprudential Measures per Country, 2016
• 1.28. Sub-Saharan Africa and Selected Regions: Value Chain Related Trade, 1990s-2010s
• 1.29. Gender Inequality Index and Gini Coefficient, Average 2010–17
• 2. Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Product Market Competition: Some Stylized Facts
• Competition and Macroeconomic Performance
• Firm Dynamics and Competition
• Boosting Competition in Domestic Markets
• Conclusions
• References
• Boxes
• 2.1. Firm Markups and Trade Liberalization
• Table
• 2.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Firm Markup and Profitability
• Chapter 2
• 2.1. Selected Groups of Countries: Product Market Competition, 2007–17
• 2.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Product Market Competition, 2007–17
• 2.3. Selected Groups of Countries: Firm-Level Competition Indicators
• 2.4. Selected Groups of Countries: Competition Indicators and Number of Competitors
• 2.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Firm Markups, 2002–17
• 2.6. Selected Groups of Countries: Firm Markups by Sector
• 2.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Competition and Macroeconomic Performance
• 2.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Price Differentials with Other Country Groups
• 2.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Impact of Increased Local Competition on Prices
• 2.10. Estimated Impact of Markups on Firm Performance
• 2.11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Structural Reforms, 1973–2014
• 2.12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Anti-Monopoly Enforcement
• 3. Domestic Arrears in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes, Symptoms, and Cures
• The Size, Composition, and Evolution of Domestic Arrears in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Causes of Domestic Arrears Accumulation
• Symptoms: Macroeconomic Effects of Domestic Payment Arrears
• Cures: Clearance and Prevention of Arrears
• Conclusion
• References
• Statistical Appendix
• Background Paper and Expanded Statistical Appendix...Online
• https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/REO/AFR/2019/October/English/backgroundpapers.ashx?la=en
• Online Expanded Statistical Appendix Tables;
• Online Annex Chapter 2—Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa;
• Online Annex Chapter 3—Domestic Arrears in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes, Symptoms, and Cures; Publications of the IMF African Department 2013–19
• Boxes
• 3.1. Domestic Arrears Data Collection Exercise
• 3.2. Arrears Accumulation and Fiscal Multipliers
• Chapter 3
• 3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Share of Countries with Recorded Domestic Arrears, 2018
• 3.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Stock of Domestic Arrears by Country Group, 2018
• 3.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Level of Stock of Domestic Arrears and Debt Sustainability Analysis Rating, 2017
• 3.4. PEFA Scores for Domestic Arrears Stock
• 3.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Share of Countries with Unrecorded Domestic Arrears, 2018
• 3.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Stock of Domestic Arrears, 2005–17
• 3.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Frequency of Domestic Arrears-Related Terms in IMF Staff Reports, 2005–17
• 3.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Domestic Arrears Breakdown, Number of Countries
• 3.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Domestic Arrears Related to Conditionality in IMF Arrangements, 2002–18
• 3.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes of Domestic Arrears Accumulation
• 3.11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Governance Indicators and Stock of Domestic Arrears, 2005–18
• 3.12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Fiscal Variables and Stock of Domestic Arrears, 2005–18
• 3.13. Accumulation of Domestic Arrears Following Fiscal Shocks
• 3.14. Causes of Domestic Arrears Accumulation Regression Output
• 3.15. Transmission Channels of Domestic Arrears Buildup to the Economy
• 3.16. Sub-Saharan Africa: The Macroeconomic Impact of Domestic Payment Arrears
• 3.17. Sub-Saharan Africa: The Heterogenous Effect of Domestic Payment A...

Table of contents

• Cover Page