Fiscal Monitor, April 2020 : Policies to Support People During the COVID-19 Pandemic

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

• Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
• Year: 2020
• eBook ISBN: 9781513537511

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Fiscal Monitor, April 2020: Policies to Support People During the COVID-19 Pandemic

International Monetary Fund
Washington, D.C.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

FISCAL MONITOR

Policies to Support People During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 APR

©2020 International Monetary Fund

Cover: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company

Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library

Names: International Monetary Fund.

Title: Fiscal monitor.

Other titles: World economic and financial surveys, 0258–7440

Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2009- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles.

Subjects: LCSH: Finance, Public—Periodicals. | Finance, Public—Forecasting—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Forecasting—Periodicals.

Classification: LCC HJ101.F57

ISBN: 978–1-51353–751-1 (paper)

978–1-51353–769-6 (ePub)

978–1-51353–771-9 (PDF)

Disclaimer: The Fiscal Monitor is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report analyzes the latest public finance developments, updates medium-term fiscal projections, and assesses policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on April 7, 2020. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.

Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2020. Fiscal Monitor: Policies to Support People During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Washington, April.

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Contents

• Assumptions and Conventions
• Further Information
• Preface
• Executive Summary
• Chapter 1. Policies to Support People During the COVID-19 Pandemic
• Introduction
• Recent Fiscal Developments and Outlook
• Fiscal Policies across Economies
• Box 1.1. Understanding the Implications of Different Types of Fiscal Measures for Public Finances
• Box 1.2. A Wave of Protests: Economic Reforms and Social Unrest
• References
• Chapter 2. IDEAS to Respond to Weaker Growth
• Introduction
• Investment for Growth
• Discretionary Measures
• Enhancing Automatic Stabilizers
• Box 2.1. Factors Underlying Low Growth and Low Interest Rates
• Box 2.2. Tax Policy and Automatic Stabilizers
• References
• Chapter 3. State-Owned Enterprises: The Other Government
• Introduction
• SOEs’ Evolving Landscape
• Achieving Policy Objectives
• Are SOEs Performing Efficiently?
• How to Get the Most Out of SOEs
• Conclusion
• Box 3.1. Experience with Privatization
• Box 3.2. State-Owned Banks
• References
• Country Abbreviations
• Glossary
• Methodological and Statistical Appendix
• Data and Conventions
• Fiscal Policy Assumptions
• Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Data
• Table A. Economy Groupings
• Table B. Advanced Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data
• Table C. Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data
• Table D. Low-Income Developing Countries: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data
• List of Tables
• Advanced Economies (A1–A8)
• Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies (A9–A16)
• Low-Income Developing Countries (A17–A22)
• Structural Fiscal Indicators (A23–A25)
• Fiscal Monitor Selected Topics
• IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2020
• Figures
• Figure 1.1. G20 Fiscal Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis
• Figure 1.2. Major Advanced Economies: 10-Year Government Bond Yields
• Figure 1.3. General Government Gross-Debt-to-GDP and Interest-Expenditure-to-Tax-Revenue Ratios, 2007–20
• Figure 1.4. Public and Private Investment, 1995–2017
• Figure 1.5. Contribution to the Change in Global Government Debt and Deficits, 2007–20
• Figure 1.6. Distribution of Nominal Effective Interest Rates, 2000–19
• Figure 1.7. Gross Financing Needs, 2020
• Figure 1.8. Average Remaining Maturity of Government Bonds, 1995–2018
• Figure 1.9. Fiscal Developments in Advanced Economies
• Figure 1.10. Fiscal Developments in Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies
• Figure 1.11. Fiscal Developments in Low-Income Developing Countries
• Figure 1.12. Commodity Terms of Trade and Primary Balances, 2012–19
• Figure 1.13. Sovereign Spreads
• Figure 1.14. Common Fiscal Support Measures for Non-Health Sectors in Response to COVID-19
• Figure 1.15. Some Principles for Instrument Choice in Supporting Firms and Households
• Figure 1.16. Public Capital Stocks across Selected Countries
• Figure 1.17. Low-Income Developing Countries: External Debt, by Creditors, 2010–18
• Figure 1.1.1. Likely Impact of Measures on the Government Budget and Debt
• Figure 2.1. A Road Map for Fiscal Policies
• Figure 2.2. Distribution of Overall Infrastructure Quality, by Income Group
• Figure 2.3. Global Investment Needs for Infrastructure, Climate Change, and Other SDGs
• Figure 2.4. Overseas Investment by China, 2005–18
• Figure 2.5. Low-Income Developing Countries: Change in Tax Revenues, 2012–19
• Figure 2.6. Simulated Macroeconomic Effects of a Public Investment Push
• Figure 2.7. Breakdown of Discretionary Expenditure and Revenue Measures in the United States, 1966–2018
• Figure 2.8. Automatic Stabilizers in the United States and the Euro Area
• Figure 2.9. Automatic Income and Demand Stabilization, by Fiscal Instrument
• Figure 2.10. Simulated Results on Average Working Income after Tax Liabilities and Benefit Entitlements during Typical Downturns
• Figure 2.11. Social Safety Net Spending, by Region
• Figure 2.12. Social Pensions, by Region
• Figure 2.13. Coverage and Adequacy of Social Safety Nets, by Region
• Figure 2.14. Employment Income Replacement Rates When People Become Unemployed and Effective Tax Rates When They Return to Work
• Figure 2.1.1. Drivers of Subdued Growth, Low Inflation and Interest Rates, and High Debt
• Figure 3.1. SOEs’ Share of Infrastructure Investments in Emerging Markets and Low-Income Developing Countries
• Figure 3.2. Public Banks’ Share of Banking System Assets, 2016
• Figure 3.3. Share of Nonfinancial SOEs among the Largest Firms
• Figure 3.4. SOEs’ Share of Assets, by Sector
• Figure 3.5. Multinational SOEs around the World
• Figure 3.6. Top 50 Nonfinancial SOEs
• Figure 3.7. Private Firms’ Interest Premium, 2000–17
• Figure 3.8. Objectives of SOEs in CESEE Countries
• Figure 3.9. SOEs’ Power Generation Capacity, 2017
• Figure 3.10. Gap between Costs and Electricity Tariffs
• Figure 3.11. National Oil Companies’ Productivity and Employment
• Figure 3.12. Change in Loan Growth over the Cycle
• Figure 3.13. Bank Holdings of Government Bonds in Countries with High Public Debt
• Figure 3.14. SOE’s Performance Relative to Private Firms
• Figure 3.15. Relative Performance of SOEs, by Sector
• Figure 3.16. Degree of State Ownership and Firms’ Performance
• Figure 3.17. Governance and Firms’ Performance
• Figure 3.18. SOE Debt Vulnerability
• Figure 3.19. Impact of SOE Reforms, 2002–17
• Figure 3.20. Fiscal Coverage beyond the Central Government in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Figure 3.21. Gearing SOE Oversight to Capacity
• Figure 3.22. Competitive Neutrality: Some Basics
• Figure 3.2.1. Financial Performance of Public Relative to Private Commercial Banks
• Tables
• Table 1.1. General Government Fiscal Overall Balance, 2012–20
• Table 1.2. General Government Debt, 2012–20
• Table 2.1. Typical Features of Guaranteed Minimum Income Programs
• Online Annexes
• Online Annex 1.1. Fiscal Measures in Selected Economies in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic
• Online Annex 2...

Table of contents

• Cover Page