Emerging Trends in Indian Politics

The Fifteenth General Election

Ajay K Mehra

• Publisher: Routledge India
• Year: 2013
• Print ISBN: 9780367459499
• eBook ISBN: 9781136198540
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: American Government
• Index: Politics & International Relations

This study presents 13 articles interrogating themes likely to impinge on India's 15th general elections in 2009. These were written following intense discussion between the contributors and use available data as well as original data and analysis.

The significance of the analyses goes beyond how much these questions find place in the campaign, or how much they would impact the electoral results. These have and would continue to be essential themes in Indian politics for some time. They would influence the country's politics, its leaders, parties and institutions and would be interrogated in political, policy and social science circles in the foreseeable future. They would in turn be impacted, redefined and perhaps transformed by political dynamics and social pressure.

The first attempt of its kind to analyse the impact of certain emerging trends in politics on upcoming elections anywhere in the world, this book will be a useful addition to election studies and policy making in general.

1

Introduction

Ajay K. Mehra

Prognosis is always hazardous, specially when it is about emerging political mood in a vibrant multicultural polity such as India. Yet, when the world's largest democracy prepares to elect its government for the 15th time since independence, enormous political energy is likely to be unleashed. The campaign and competition for power — wooing 714 million voters¹ to govern a 1.15 billion humanity presenting an unparallelled mosaic of socio-cultural and religious hue with a fractured party system that has been eliciting fragmented mandate from the electorate for two decades — results both in populism and segmentisation of the society and the voters in order to maximise presence in the Lok Sabha. The process is fraught with possibilities that engender demands of various kinds from society on the polity, political parties and leaders. Given the fractured nature of the party system in India and emerging fluid coalition politics, the 2009 election throws open several prospects of frictious alliances, and even as aligning together becomes a compulsion, competition for the same political turf does not end.

As the notification for the 15th general elections was made by the ECI on 2 March 2009, the race and alignments began for the poll scheduled to take place between 16 April and 13 May. Even before the issues for the polls could emerge, alignments and realignments began surfacing with no one knowing as to who was with whom, and who would eventually go with whom. Despite several pre-poll surveys indicating an edge for the ruling UPA, four facts have emerged rather sharply. First, neither of the two national parties — the Congress and the BJP — was in the pink of health organisationally. Their contradictions, which are also the contradictions of all other parties in the Indian political arena as well, are a mix of weak organisational structure, centralised, concentrated and familial (if not dynastic) leadership, an infertile political soil to let a fresh crop of leadership sprout, nearly vacant middle and grassroots leadership spaces, etc. Of course, less said about the demise of ideals, ideology and policy content, the better. Second, the two nodal national parties are also in a frictious situation with their allies, both existing and probable, over turf.² While they want to retain, regain and create spheres of electoral support, the regional allies too want to maximise their bargaining space by expanding their parliamentary presence.³ Third, the re-emergence of the Third Front appears to have queered the poll pitch, for it has provided an added bargaining power to the regional allies of the two nodal parties. Even while asserting their commitment to the alliance they have entered into, the regional party satraps have asserted that any other possibilities were probable as well. Obviously, post-poll possibilities are wide open even though the pre-poll surveys give the Third Front third position with under 100 Lok Sabha seats.⁴ Four, the cloak of ideology and principles, which were earlier at least asserted, is completely off; the parties and leaders now openly admit to a game of power and for most smaller and regional parties each — the left, the right and the centre — is amenable to coalition nexus. Last, but not least, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and its leader Mayawati would undoubtedly be the dark horse of the 15th general elections. Whether the queen-bee of dalit politics with a consolidated domain in Uttar Pradesh would emerge as empress or kingmaker remains to be seen.

That the 15th general election, despite being part of the continuum of the process unleashed in 1951–52 under the 1950 republican Constitution of India, would have its own distinctive features for the Indian polity as it charts its course in the second decade of the 21st century. The Indian polity entered the new millennium on the rubbles of India's much-discussed one-party dominant system, and with the dawn of coalition politics at the national level. As the nation steps into the second decade of the new century, the coalition system is set to be re-gigged afresh, creating new rules for the game. Realising the emerging possibilities in the 2009 elections, the CPA and the Heinrich Böll Foundation teamed up to explore how some major issues and factors were likely to play a significant role in the polls.

This study is not about psephology, nor about gazing into the crystal ball. It identifies factors considered significant by a team of scholars (part of the CPA network) and analyses their role and impact. The factors shortlisted after two confabulations are: delimitation, economic issues, cohabitation, the politics of cohabitation, Dalit politics, Muslim politics, tribal politics, the politics of autonomy, gender politics, internal security, the role of media, the role of the corporate sector, foreign policy and the role of the diaspora. The articles were discussed in two workshops in October and November 2008. Indeed, there could be a number of other issues that could be analysed.

Delimitation

The electoral map of India has undergone drastic change, affecting electoral and political constituencies of several prominent leaders, thereby impacting their political fortunes both collectively (i.e., for political parties) and individually. The Delimitation Committee (DC), mandated by the Constitution of India, Articles 82 and 170(3), read with Articles 327 and 329, to be created under a parliamentary Act for a fresh look at the electoral constituencies for the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabhas following each decennial Census, was created for a fourth time in 2002 since the first election was held under India's republican constitution in 1952. The delimitation of constituencies began in July 2002 and was completed on 19 February 2008, but this six-year-long operation was far from smooth, with several objections from parties, states, groups, communities and individuals. If the Congress-led UPA made an unsuccessful attempt to keep the delimitation process at bay by preparing a carefully drafted 13-page document for the consideration of political parties, the BJP too was initially apprehensive and critical about it. Of course, they all later gave in. Not surprisingly, despite this protracted effort, delimitation could not be undertaken in Jharkhand, Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh due to the enumeration of migrants in the Census and the electoral rolls, apprehensions of under-representation of one's own group at the cost of over-representation of others, and so on. If international migration-led changes in the religio-ethnic demographics were perceived as a kind of external threat to the representative democracy in a state, tribal–non tribal (im)balance too was seen as upsetting the representational as well as power balance in some of the states.

Nonetheless, the process, as Ashutosh Kumar deftly analyses, has altered the electoral map of the country and put electoral politics on a course which is bound to have a significant impact on the 2009 elections. Nearly all Lok Sabha constituencies have undergone changes in the number of electorates, adding new voters (the newly eligible youth and the population rural–urban and urban–urban migrants). Further, the boundaries of nearly half of the Lok Sabha constituencies have changed. Naturally, it has become imperative for the parties to rethink their electoral strategies in terms of articulating and presenting issues for new sets of voters: this may mean a quest for local issues as well as locally-grounded candidates to succeed given the electoral volatility. With the gradual strengthening of the roots of the rural and local urban bodies since the revolutionary 73rd and 74th Amendments to the Constitution in 1993, local representatives could matter significantly, and the 2009 election could be the watershed.

There have been significant changes in the number of reserved constituencies for the SCs and STs following the delimitation. The SC-reserved seats have gone up from 78 to 83, and the number of the reserved seats for the ST too would go up after completion of the delimitation exercise in all the states. 13 new Lok Sabha constituencies have been reserved by redrawing the territorial boundaries. The SC–ST reserved constituencies have increased to 124, out of which 83 are for SCs and 41 for STs (creating four additional SC reserved seats). 22 new Lok Sabha constituencies have now been created and reserved, whereas 47 existing general constituencies have been reserved. The 543 seats in the 14th Lok Sabha were distributed into 79 SC, 41 ST and 423 general, whereas the fourth delimitation allocates 83 to SC, 41 to ST and 419 to the general category.

Though hazarding a conjecture on impending political gains and losses due to reconfiguring of constituencies could be tricky, past trends do offer some insights. Since the Congress attracts dalit votes despite the rise of parties such as BSP and LJSP, the UPA could gain with the increase in the reserved SC constituencies. Indeed, the BSP and the LJSP too would look for a slice of this cake. The increase in the ST seats, however, could still be trickier, for the universe of the tribal population being diverse (except in the north-east), only the mainstream parties vie for their votes. Since the Sangh Parivar has been able to saffronise some of the tribal groups in Gujarat, Jharkhand, Orissa and Rajasthan in the past one decade, the equation could be complex.

The increase of the Muslim-dominant constituencies to 70, some of them having been de-reserved, could significantly influence the poll outcome. The contenders for Muslim votes could be the Congress, the Left, BSP, SP, JD(U) and so on. Despite tactical voting, particularly after the recent acts of terrorism and counter-terror efforts incensing Muslims due to increased negative profiling, the Congress and the UPA could be the gainers. The minority, particularly Muslim, votes could swing the balance one way or the other with their tactical voting, at least in north India.

Since many leaders find their carefully nurtured constituencies redrawn, altered or reserved, parties and leaders are compelled to make a fresh beginning for their electoral success. They need to concentrate on sensitive and delicately balanced constituencies as well as on the altered ones with fresh political strategies.

Each subsequent election is seeking mandate from an increasingly urbanising India. This delimitation exercise has thrown up a number of constituencies with a majority of an urban electorate. There are 74 urban Lok Sabha constituencies with 75 per cent urban electorate, whereas 70 constituencies had more than 50 per cent but less than 75 per cent urban electorate. This trend appears to be advantageous for the national parties rather than the regional parties, but even the regional party can strategise to reach the urban voters, many of whom could be rural migrants. We should also take into account the rural pockets that get delimited into urban constituencies because they are part of a rapidly urbanising city or their land has been acquired by a new urban centre.

Despite the DC's stupendous work in carrying out this daunting exercise with exemplary diligence, certain anomalies have crept into the delimitation exercise. First, under-enfranchisement of the urban poor settled on the outer fringes or ‘unintended’ city continues. Second, the exercise has failed to address under-representation of the Muslims in legislative bodies. Third, since the SC/ST reserved seats are allocated state-wise in proportion to their population in a state, the STs tend to get more seats in comparison to the SCs. The SCs would benefit if the number of reserved seats is determined on the basis of their proportion to the total population. Fourth, since the panchayat and municipal wards, recently determined after the 73rd and 74th Amendments, are more or less equal in size, they should have been the building blocks for the current delimitation of the boundary of each Assembly constituency in all the states so as to ensure an alignment of the electoral structure, including the electoral rolls, between the three tiers of democracy. Fifth, the rationale for freezing the number of Lok Sabha seats for each state on the basis of the 1971 Census has been criticised for violating the basic constitutional and democratic principle of one person, one vote and one value.

Party Programmes

Party programmes elaborated in election manifestos as well as in commonly agreed pre- and post-election ‘agenda’, variously termed as CMP or NAG (of the coalition partners) are important indicators of the likely issues that will be in play during a 2009 elections. O. P. Sharma analyses the emerging programmes and economic agenda of the main parties in the fray to get a feel of the electoral issues, particularly the economic ones, that may shape the 2009 general elections. It will, however, be worthwhile stressing at the outset that Sharma has undertaken an unenviable task to cogitate on the emerging agenda before the elections have even been announced, a commendable effort that otherwise lies in the realm of conjencture. His exercise is based on the past manifestos of various parties in the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections, as well as emerging issues and debates.

In his cogent analytical listing of economic issues, he has also put concerns such as federalism and the third tier, subject-matters related to the social sector that could be expected to have significant economic implications and, above all, populist measures that most parties think would give them an edge over others in attracting voters. An analysis of how much an election manifesto helps a party win an election, particularly in India, how much of the programmes in the election manifestos are eventually translated into actionable and implementable policies and how much of them are accounted for in the next election, has not been undertaken so far. The second set of analysis could be the preparation of the CMPs or an agenda for governance in the coalition era. Three things are important in it. First, how much of each coalition partners’ programmes are put into this potpourri of common agenda? Second, how serious are the partners that their programmes, agenda and ideology are reflected, and what kind of pulls, pressures and bargaining takes place? Finally, do they eventually work towards the implementation of their programmes? The example of the NDA suggests that a contentious issue such as the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya could be shelved ‘in the interest of the coalition’, which also gives an opportunity for the BJP (or any such party) a pretext to temporarily distance itself from an extremist agenda for a broader appeal. Sharma's exercise highlights the need for such analyses to be undertaken.

As far as the 2009 elections are concerned, this study of the continuing and past manifestos and programmes by Sharma clearly indicates that the parties prefer continuity rather than break from their earlier positions. While the previous issues are not totally abandoned, there appears to be a process of sifting in revisions undertaken, and new emerging issues and challenges are added with each elections. We should also take into account the fact that elections in India have become a round-the-year exercise, undertaken practically every year since Indira Gandhi broke the correspondence between the Lok Sabha elections and Assembly elections in 1971 (Mehra 2004). This creates a situation not only for a time-series continuity in the programmes and professed policies of the parties but also a continuity between past and future policies. It also gives room for mid-course corrections in preparation for the big event of the general elections.

Among the economic issues that would definitely figure in the election manifestos of the parties, the financial meltdown and disappearance of existing skilled jobs would perhaps be the most important issues. This adds to the existing 10 per cent unemployment rate and over 9 million unemployed in India. It would also add to the number of underemployed, which too adds to frustration amongst the youth with potential for protest, some of which may be violent too. Whether or not the UPA government's policies are capable of dealing with the spurt in unemployment generally as well as its rise due to the current situation, will definitely come up for political dissection during the elections.

Unemployment is only one of the impacts of the global meltdown. There is a general economic slow-down, which has been admitted by the government. The government has taken some emergent steps to deal with the situation, but they can only stabilise economic growth at a certain level, it cannot be raised to 8 or 9 per cent. Obviously, while the UPA and the Congress would attempt to take credit for ‘stabilisation’ under a difficult situation, the opposition would, as it began doing soon after the crisis, attack the government for not doing enough. It will also be interesting to watch how much of the impact of the slow-down and policies related to it figure in the agenda of different parties. In this context, the significance of the UPA's flagship programme such as NREGA would come under the scanner, as media reports and analysis have revealed several discrepancies of different kinds at all levels. Both the concept and its implementation would be put under the microscope. Whether or not this fetches votes for the Congress and the UPA would be watched keenly by political experts. The initiatives arising from the Sachar Committee Report too would be put to test. Though not yet clear, the BJP could characterise this initiative as minority appeasement.

How much will populism take over the programmatic aspect of the election campaign? This is not an easy question to answer. But Sharma perceptively underlines the significance of ‘economic’ populism in the Indian elections. Obviously, if it has been used in the most recent elections, it is likely t...

Table of contents

• Front Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of Tables
• Foreword
• Preface
• List of Abbreviations
• 1. Introduction
• 2. Coping with the Delimitation: New Electoral Strategies
• 3. Economic Issues in the Electoral Arena: Party Programmes and the Politics of Development
• 4. The Emerging Politics of Cohabitation: New Challenges
• 5. Emerging Patterns in Dalit Politics
• 6. Muslim Politics in India and the 15th General Elections
• 7. The Politics of Tribes in the 15th General Elections
• 8. Regionalism, the Politics of Autonomy and Smaller States
• 9. The ‘Missing Women’: Gender Representation in Indian Politics
• 10. Internal Security and the 15th General Elections
• 11. The Role of the Media in Contemporary Indian Politics
• 12. Contemporary Indian Politics and the Corporate Sector
• 13. Foreign Policy and Indian Politics: Issues before the 15th General Election
• 14. Diaspora in Indian Politics and the 15th General Election
• Bibliography
• Note on the Editor
• Notes on Contributors
• Index