Sir,
1. There is another burst of doubt in NATO capitals about the reliability of the Federal Republic. This despatch considers which doubts are justified.
2. It would be hard to find any responsible observer in the Federal Republic, German or foreign, who sees any prospect of the Federal Republic leaving the Alliance or of an early move to achieve reunification. But there is debate about how far there is a danger that the lure of detente or a prospect of reunification could one day weaken Federal German alignment in the West. And there are concerns about present attitudes in the Federal Republic. Two worrying trends have recently grown. The first is uncritical enthusiasm for Gorbachev and a willingness to believe that the Soviet threat has gone. The second trend, related to the first, is growing public impatience with defence activities in Germany, above all low flying and other military training. The question is whether the causes for concern will grow, and the Federal Republic become an increasingly difficult partner.
A Special Psychology
3. The history and psychology of the Federal Republic are different in important ways from those of our other Allies. German history is full of uncertainties and late political development. Until the founding of the Federal Republic there was little experience of democracy: only the heavily authoritarian version left by Bismarck and the feebly unstable one of the Weimar Republic from 1919 to 1933. Stability has been unusual in German history, and was not present in this century until after 1945. Even the extent of Germany has never been decided. Unity came only in 1871 and lasted but 74 years. Today, the Eastern part of the Germany of 1871-1945 is lost and the remainder is divided. So the Federal Republic is less than half
the size of Bismarckās unified Germany. The appalling crimes of Nazism, which many still remember, cause a lack of self-confidence and a tendency to guilt. Germany has a history of looking East as well as West. For centuries Germans colonised areas stretching eastwards to places which are today within the Soviet Union. More recently, the Nazi-Soviet pact was the worst but not the only example of the Eastern connection prevailing for a time over the Western.
4. One of the effects today of this combination of past factors is that the West Germans are prone to emotional surges of hope whenever things seem to be improving in East-West relations. One reason is the division of Germany and the aspiration to reunification and of course the position of Berlin. Another is Angst about another war, caused by memories of the last one and by the Federal Republicās geographical position as the Westās frontline state, bound to suffer terrible destruction in any East-West conflict. Another factor in the wish for reconciliation with the East is guilt, because of Nazi aggression and atrocities. Guilt is strong in the Federal Republicās view of Poland and an element in its view of the Soviet Union. Even West Germans who are agnostic about reunification want to help the East Germans, who are seen as suffering much more for Hitlerās wrongs than the free and prosperous Federal Germans.
5. Adenauerās contribution was to establish the principle that the Federal Republicās integration into the West must take priority over efforts to achieve reunification. The aim of reunification was written into the Federal Republicās constitutional law, but the implication was that it was a long term objective. Freedom was to be the condition of reunification not the price. A strong Federal Republic, profiting from the Western connection, would be better able to influence the question of Germanyās future. That has remained the general view. Today opinion polls show that a majority, even among the young, still think of the Germans as one people. No-one questions in any serious way the heavy subsidies that are essential to Berlinās viability. But in 1987, 72% of West Germans were found not to expect reunification in the foreseeable future. In 1986, less than half of people in their twenties thought it worth continuing to state the long term goal of reunification. Polls are only indications. But it is safe to conclude that, for most West Germans, the European status quo is a matter for questioning discussion, and for a considerable number it is unsatisfactory as a lasting arrangement. Reunification is still an aspiration of many people, but definitely not a worked out policy.
The Federal Republicās Achievements
6. This 40th anniversary year is a time to recall the impressive achievements of the Federal Republic. It is the one successful democracy in German history, and has already lasted 3 times as long as Weimar. The Federal Republic has achieved security and peace for a period longer than the tragic stretch from 1914 to 1945. It has achieved great prosperity, building Europeās largest and the worldās third largest economy. It has gained considerable international respect and self-respect. For many years people spoke of the Federal Republic, with its economic miracle, as an economic giant but a political dwarf. Today the voice of the Federal Republic in the West and its role in East-West relations have brought the dwarf to normal height, though there still are limitations deriving from the warāfor instance the FRG is not a Permanent Member of the Security Council and still has serious inhibitions about military activities or exports outside NATO. The Federal Republicās successes have helped to prevent reunification becoming a major issue in this country. The successful development of contacts of many kinds with East Germany in the past 20 years has contributed to that effect.
7. After 40 years, democracy, stability and prosperity are taken for granted. The great successes of the Federal Republic are often left unsung. As the head of the Deutsche Bank put it to me: āMan doth not live by bread alone, especially when he hath plenty of itā.2 People seem to focus on further wishes for the future. The West Germans are always yearning for something and will, I think, continue thus. Sometimes this restlessness is expressed in bouts of emotion about particular issues. The focus seems to change once or twice a year. Sometimes it is an environmental question, such as acid rain. Low flying by military aircraft is a current example. The latest is intense concern about pressure on housing and jobs from the wave of immigrants of German stock from Eastern Europe. But it is possible that the West German need to yearn will focus in due course on something of far greater international importance. Intense pressure for progress in relations with Gorbachevās Soviet Union is a likely candidate. Reunification could theoretically be one in the longer term.
Federal German Interests
8. The Soviet threat was the biggest factor in causing the Federal Germans to bind themselves to the West. But even if it was lastingly reduced, freedom and prosperity ought to provide reason enough for not tampering with the Western connection that has brought such successes. Public opinion polls show high support, around 75%, for NATO. Support for the Bundeswehr is even higher. But attitudes are muddled: one frequent result of opinion polls is to show a majority for deterrence and a majority against nuclear weapons. And the support for NATO coexists with the new intolerance of aircraft noise and of other corollaries of credible military preparedness. A threat to freedom or security would bring public opinion back firmly to support of NATO, defence and the American connection. In safer times opinion is uncertain and inconsistent, and in a prolonged period of East-West calm it could become more so.
9. The absence of the nation as a focus of identity, a major element in the West German need to yearn, caused the Federal Republic in its early years to seek success in other things. Prosperity was one. The European Community was another. In the fifties and sixties, the European cause caught the imagination. Today it is still a popular theme, though somewhat dulled by familiarity and by years of press reports about the daily grind in Brussels. While enthusiasm has diminished, German integration into the Community has of course advanced, and today permeates innumerable aspects of every day life from the German passion for tourism via measures to reduce pollution to day to day foreign policy. Another popular cause was and is the new friendship with France, referred to in speech after speech here as a cornerstone in the construction of European Union. The West German public are grateful that the hereditary enemy, which Germany invaded three times in a century, offered unqualified reconciliation. Almost no-one here would question that the Community and Franco-German reconciliation are precious achievements which must be preserved because they are essential to the interests, indeed the very nature, of the Federal Republic.
10. On the economic side, things are clear. The Federal Republicās prosperity depends on exports. Of these 86% go to the Western world, 54% to the Community. Exports to CMEA countries, at 3.5%, are small by comparison. The
rate of growth of exports to the Western world is also higher. Indeed the amount by which they grew in 1988 was double the total of Federal German exports to the CMEA countries in that year. As described in my despatch of 27 January, there is great interest in increasing trade with the CMEA countries. But there is no way that the Federal Republic can afford a foreign policy that would jeopardise its economic integration in the Western system, and no voice in the Federal Republic is arguing that there is.
Other Important Factors
11. America is still seen here as the home of democracy and prosperity. The usual German view, since Vietnam, has ceased to be uncritical but still is a generally admiring one. Anti-Americanism exists in certain sections of opinion and was at a high point in the early Reagan years. It could grow again. A separate factor in Federal German attitudes to East-West relations is the perception that Americaās interest is shifting away from the Atlantic and towards the Pacific. The Federal Chancellor is a strong believer in this view. Most people expect some withdrawals of American forces from the Federal Republic within a matter of years. Kohlās reaction is that everything should be done to hold on to the Americans while efforts are made at strengthening the European pillar of the Alliance. The left is not greatly concerned. All believe that the prospects of a greater German contribution to defence in the Alliance are slight and that it will be hard enough to maintain the present strength and effectiveness of the Bundeswehr.
12. Another significant and growing trend is insistence th...