Contemporary North Korea

A guide to economic and political developments

Ian Jeffries

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2009
• Print ISBN: 9780415478670
• eBook ISBN: 9781135276096
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Business General
• Index: Business

This book provides full details of contemporary economic and political developments in North Korea since late 2005, continuing the overview of developments which were covered in the author's North Korea: A Guide to Economic and Political Developments (Routledge 2006). Key topics covered include: the succession; family visits; human rights; nuclear capability and intentions; recent initiatives in international relations, and relations with the United States; and adverse economic and social conditions.

Overall, the book demonstrates the degree to which North Korea's international position is changing. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the current political and economic situation in North Korea today, and is an important resource for all those interested in this country's recent development.

1 Politics

The succession and other family matters

Kim Jong Il has not indicated a favourite [to succeed him] … His first wife, Sung Hae Rim, is the mother of the eldest son, Kim Jong Nam. His second wife, Ko Young Hee, had Kim Jong Chol and Kim Jong Un … [Kim Jong Il’s] eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, thirty-four, has not been home for years, wandering in self-imposed exile overseas and reportedly on the run from hit men hired by supporters of his step-brothers … Jong Nam was last sighted in public in September last year [2004], when he told Japanese reporters at a Beijing airport that he had travelled in several countries after being expelled from Japan … [It was] reported later … [that] Jong Nam had escaped an assassination attempt in Vienna last year … [Kim Jong Il’s] second son, Kim Jong Chol, is only twenty-four and was reportedly dismissed once by his father as too ‘girlish’ to be a leader. His youngest son, Kim Jong Un, twenty-two, remains a mystery; in fact no one in the outside world is known to have ever seen his photograph … A purge and indoctrination are already under way to prepare for a son’s ascension, said Cheong Seong Chang, an analyst at Sejong in South Korea. ‘They are nipping potential obstacles in the bud,’ he said, citing the banishing of Jang Song Taek, Kim Jong Il’s brother-in-law. Jang, once a drinking partner of Kim’s and the second most influential man in Kim’s secretive inner circle, has been missing since last year [2004], and many state, military and party officials close to him are losing their jobs or being demoted.

(Choe Sang-Hun, IHT, 16 November 2005, p. 2)

‘[In September 2006 it was reported that] Jang Keum Song, twenty-nine, a niece of Kim Jong Il, killed herself with an overdose of sleeping pills in Paris last month [August], probably because she did not want to return to her home in the reclusive state’ (The Times, 16 September 2006, p. 50).

Kim Jong Il has been living with his former secretary, who is virtually acting as the country’s ‘first lady’, it was reported yesterday [23 July 2006]. There is no official information available about the marital history of Mr Kim, but he is believed to have been married three times. His last wife, Ko Young Hee, reportedly died of cancer two years ago. Since then Mr Kim [sixty-four] has been living with Kim Ok [forty-two], who had served as his personal secretary since the 1980s … Experts say Mr Kim’s twenty-five-year-old son Kim Jong Chol will most likely succeed him. His eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, is said to have fallen out of favour.

(Guardian, 24 July 2006, p. 17)

The eldest son of Kim Jong Il has for the past three years lived in Macao … a news report said Thursday [1 February 2007]. Kim Jong Nam, thirty-five, has stayed in five-star hotels in the Chinese territory and has been seen gambling in casinos and restaurants … A similar [newspaper] report [appeared] on Wednesday [31 January].

(IHT, 2 February 2007, p. 8)

Kim Jong Il’s two younger sons, in their twenties, have started appearing in public with their father for the first time since their mother died in 2004. Mr Kim’s eldest son (by an earlier mistress), Kim Jong Nam, thirty-six, had been written off as a potential successor after the embarrassment of being caught entering Japan with a fake passport to visit Tokyo’s Disneyland. He has recently been living in Macao, but this year [2007] popped back for his father’s birthday.

(The Economist, 7 July 2007, p. 59)

The eldest son of Kim Jong Il has returned to Pyongyang from China, a South Korean daily has reported. Kim Jong Nam, thirty-six, is working at a key agency of the ruling Workers’ Party, the Choson Ilbo said, quoting an intelligence source. This has prompted speculation that a rumoured rift between father and son may have been mended, the daily said … Kim Jong Il has not yet specified which of his sons he intends to succeed him … Kim Jong Nam was thought to have been out of favour since he was caught in 2001 trying to enter Japan with a false passport. He subsequently lived in China for several years. Some analysts had believed that Kim Jong Il’s two sons by a different wife were being positioned as likely heirs. But according to intelligence officials quoted by the Choson Ilbo, Kim Jong Nam ended his exile in China around June. He is currently working in the party’s Organization and Guidance Department, the source said. Kim Jong Il began his work in government in the same department. Separately, an individual described by the Associated Press news agency as close to Kim Jong Nam confirmed his return to North Korea and said that it had ‘decisive relations to the power transfer’.

(www.bbc.co.uk, 27 August 2007)

Unlike his father, Kim has not publicly groomed any of his three sons to eventually take power, said Nicholas Eberhardt … at the American Enterprises Institute. There are doubts about the abilities of all three sons, and American officials tend to gravitate toward theories that a military committee might take over the country.

(www.iht.com, 10 September 2008)

None of his [Kim Jong Il’s] three known sons has emerged as an obvious candidate to take the dynasty into a third generation. If Kim had intended to choose one but now finds his time running out, analysts said Wednesday [10 September 2008] that the most likely scenario would be power elites in Pyongyang forming a collective leadership … Andrei Lankov (Kookmin University in Seoul): ‘The majority view now is that there will be a collective leadership, with some member of the Kim family as a figurehead’ … Peter Hayes [director of the Nautilus Institute, a think-tank in San Francisco]: ‘A leader from the current political elite with strong ties to the military [would take over]’ … Cheong Seong Chang [Sejong Institute]: ‘If Kim dies a natural death within four to five years the most probable type of the North Korean regime would be a collective ruling system’ … Shin Gi Wook [Stanford University]: My guess is like this: they will keep the Kim family as a social and political institution like the emperor system in Japan, offering symbolic and moral power for North Koreans, but are likely to establish a collective system in which the military will play a key role’ … Ageing and ailing confidants of Kim like Kim Yong Nam and Jo Myong Rok may step in. But the deciding voices in any power coalition might be those of younger technocrats like Ri Yong Chol and Ri He Gang, who run military and organization affairs at the ruling Workers’ Party, analysts said. Chang Song Taek, Kim’s brother-in-law, is also considered a contender for power. The eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, thirty-seven, might be the natural choice in a Confucian society that favours the first-born son as heir. But he has a handicap: his mother, a divorced actress, never legally married Kim. She died in Moscow in 2002. Kim Jong Nam embarrassed his father when he was caught trying to enter Japan on a fake Dominican passport. Kim Jong Nam has since been sighted a few times by Japanese reporters in Beijing. That raised speculation that he might be on the run from a half-brother, Kim Jong Chol, twenty-seven, and his mother, Ko Young Hee. Ko, a star of Pyongyang’s premier song-and-dance troupe, gave Kim another son, Kim Jong Un, twenty-five. Ko raised her status, and the fortune of her sons, by accompanying Kim on his ‘guidance tours’ of the military, the loyal backbone of his rule. But she reportedly died in 2004 and neither of her two sons has been seen in North Korea media. A daughter, Kim Sul Song, is not considered a contender.

(www.iht.com, 10 September 2008; IHT, 11 September 2008, p. 2)

‘Paik Hak Soon (Sejong Institute): “A collective leadership centring around key party officials could emerge, or the military could take over”’ (FT, 11 September 2008, p. 10).

‘There is no clear line of succession … Kim Jong Il does not appear to have anointed any of his three sons as successor’ (www.guardian.co.uk, 10 September 2008).

Kim Jong Il’s own large clan reportedly [comprises] seven children from four wives and several mistresses … Many observers point out that Kim Jong Il took incognito trips to Japan in the 1980s to watch magic shows staged by his favourite magician, Hitika Tenko. First son Kim Jong Nam … has been rehabilitated and works at a key government agency, according to South Korea’s largest daily newspaper, Chosun Ilbo.

(www.independent.co.uk, 10 September 2008)

Jong Chol, twenty-seven, his second son, was prompted by his mother, Ko Young Hee, until her death in 2004. But, according to some South Korea media, quoting a Japanese who claims to have been Kim Jong Il’s personal chef, this son suffers from ‘excess female hormones’.

(www.iht.com, 19 September 2008)

Kim Jong Il has named his youngest son, the Swiss-educated Kim Jong Un, who is in his mid-twenties, to succeed him, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said yesterday [15 January], citing an unidentified intelligence source. The website of Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper, however, reported US intelligence sources as saying that eldest son Kim Jong Nam, thirty-eight, is poised to step in as a figurehead.

(Guardian, 16 January 2009, p. 25)

The opaque world of North Korean politics is once again the subject of intense international media speculation amid fears for Kim Jong Il’s health. Newspapers have published conflicting reports about who the country’s leader has chosen as his successor. According to a Japanese news report, Kim Jong Il wants his eldest son to replace him. But a South Korean news agency claims he has named his third son instead. Kim Jong Il inherited the leadership from his father in 1994, so many observers believe that eventually authority will be passed on once again to his sons … This week a Japanese newspaper, citing unnamed US intelligence sources, claimed that it is his eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, who would be expected to take over. But a South Korean news agency, quoting unnamed intelligence sources, said that instead … [Kim Jong Il] has now named his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, as his chosen successor. Other reports suggest the man being lined up as the ‘real power behind the throne’ is Chang Song Taek—the husband of Kim Jong Il’s sister and director of the administrative department of the North Korean Workers’ Party. This latter suggestion has been widely repeated in newspapers in many countries on Thursday [15 January], including China. The state-run China Daily does not routinely carry unsourced reports on North Korea, but placed this story prominently on the front page.

(www.bbc.co.uk, 16 January 2009)

The eldest son of Kim Jong Il says he has ‘no interest’ in succeeding his father, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reports. Kim Jong Nam told reporters in Beijing: ‘No one can say for sure and only Father will decide … It is no good to assume and imagine before the decision is made’ … [He said] he had no information about reports his youngest brother Kim Jong Un would get the job … Other figures named a possible successors include the second son, Kim Jong Chol, as well as senior figures from the country’s powerful military and its ruling … Workers’ Party of Korea.

(www.bbc.co.uk, 25 January 2009)

Human rights

A [South] Korean reporter asked President Roh Moo Hyun [after his meeting with President George W. Bush] … why he had not been more outspoken about North Korea’s human rights abuses. He responded by citing Abraham Lincoln, who Roh said had been ‘very slow in liberating the slaves’ because he put the nation’s unity ahead of all other priorities.

(IHT, 18 November 2005, p. 4)

[On 8 December 2005] international human rights advocates gathered for a high profile conference here [in Seoul] and called for the overthrow of the North Korean government … About 700 human rights advocates and North Korean defectors joined the forum in Seoul, which was organized by South Korean human rights groups and Freedom House, a US-based group partly funded by the US government … Washington dispatched its special envoy on North Korean human rights … Jay Lefkowitz … and its ambassador to Seoul … Alexander Vershbow … to attend the three-day forum. But the South Korean foreign minister and its human rights ambassador turned down invitations, offering instead to send a mid-level official only to a conference dinner.

(www.iht.com 8 December 2005)

‘South Korean officials say their policy of maintaining stability on the divided peninsula takes precedence over public demands for improving human rights’ (www.iht.com, 9 December 2005). Jay Lefkowitz (9 December): ‘[North Korea is] a deeply oppressive nation … We do not threaten the peace by challenging the status quo. Indeed, failing to follow this path and take steps towards liberalization is a far greater risk to the long-term security and prosperity in the region’ (www.iht.com, 9 December 2005). Jay Lefkowitz: ‘We do not threaten the peace by challenging the status quo. Indeed, failing to follow this path and take steps towards liberalization is a far greater risk to the long-term security and economic prosperity in the region’ (FT, 10 December 2005, p. 9).

Up to 200,000 political prisoners are being held in several prison camps in the North, according to the US State Department. A typical prison is a constellation of huts and barracks where between 5,000 and 50,000 prisoners toil fifteen hours a day, and where hundreds die each year of hunger, disease or beatings, said a report by the government-run Korea Institute of National Unification.

(www.iht.com, 22 March 2006)

Kim Jong Il’s regime is responsible for crimes against humanity, genocide and war crimes. From 150,000 to 200,000 people are now being held in gulag-like prison camps where they suffer enslavement, torture, rape and near starvation. One million people are estimated to have died in these camps, adding to the 1 to 2 million deaths from the famine caused by government failures in the 1990s.

(David Scheffer and Grace Kang, IHT, 7 July 2006, p. 7)

North Korea heads a league table of the ten most censored countries, according to a survey by the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists. All ‘news’ in North Korea is positive, there are no independent journalists, and all radio and television receivers are locked to government specified frequencies, the CJ said in a report to mark World Press Freedom Day yesterday [3 May 2006]. North Korea is followed by Burma, Turkmenistan, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Eritrea, Cuba, Uzbekistan, Syria and Belarus in the survey … In North Korea almost all news is supplied by the official news agency, which ‘serves up a daily diet of fawning coverage of ‘Dear Leader’ Kim Jong Il and his official engagements,’ the report sai...

Table of contents

• Cover Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Acknowledgements
• Introduction and key events
• The economy: key developments
• Historical background
• 1 Politics
• 2 The economy
• References