Reliability, Risk, and Safety, Three Volume Set

Theory and Applications

Radim Bris, Carlos Guedes Soares, Sebastián Martorell, Radim Bris, Carlos Guedes Soares, Sebastián Martorell

• Publisher: CRC Press
• Year: 2009
• eBook ISBN: 9780203859759
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Technology & Engineering
• Subtopic: Civil Engineering
• Index: Technology & Engineering

Containing papers presented at the 18th European Safety and Reliability Conference (Esrel 2009) in Prague, Czech Republic, September 2009.Reliability, Risk and Safety Theory and Applications will be of interest for academics and professionals working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors, including civil and environmental engineering, energy production and distribution, information technology and telecommunications, critical infrastructures, and insurance and finance.

Table of contents

• Front cover
• Table of Contents
• Preface
• Organization
• Introduction
• Volume I Thematic areas: Accident and incident investigation
• Incident cause levels: An integrated approach to the incident investigation
• Learning from accidents (incidents) – Theoretical perspectives on investigation reports as educational tools
• Suggested proactive indicators to be used in oil and gas industry based on a survey of accidents in the industry
• The innovative tools for prevention of accidents in a post-socialist country
• Bayesian methods
• A numerical procedure for handling mixed Bayesian networks
• Contributions to Bayesian network model design for operational risk in the financial industry
• Data-informed calibration of experts in Bayesian framework
• Empirical Bayes testing with random censoring
• Uncertainty in reliability estimation: When do you know everything you know?
• Decision support systems and software tools for safety and reliability
• A decision support system to evaluate gas pipeline risk in multiple dimensions
• A knowledge-based approach for functional safety management
• Aggregation of randomized model ensemble outcomes for reconstructing nuclear signals from faulty sensors
• An assessment of gaps and technical risks in sophisticated technology implementation efforts in complex operations: A case from an integrated production monitoring environment
• Analysis and optimization of repairable networks with merging flows
• Automating the synthesis of AltaRica Data-Flow models from SysML
• Database and simulator supported accident management strategies for the postulated core damage scenarios
• Demand optimization model in aeronautical infrastructure to maintain the safety integrity level
• Simulation model for availability assessment of airspace control systems
• Supportive software for the multi-criteria decision making
• TRACE: A generic tool for dependable requirements engineering
• Dynamic reliability
• An approach to calculate multi-system failure coincidence probabilities
• LARES— A novel approach for describing system reconfigurability in dependability models of fault-tolerant systems
• Modelling and simulation of real dynamic system
• PAMOS and PAROS: Parallel Addition of Multiple or Redundant Operands in a Single word
• Fault identification and diagnostics
• A short study on rebooting safe computers and the impact on safety
• An application of squared prediction errors of time domain averaging across all scales on gearbox fault detection based on vib ation signals
• Application of a dynamic fault diagnostic method using Bayesian belief networks on a fuel rig system
• Estimation of monitoring indicators using regression methods application to turbofan start sequence
• Fault detection on textiles by adapted biorthogonal wavelets
• System health monitoring through Bayesian networks
• Wear prognosis based on identified damage accumulation models
• Human factors
• A Bayesian network model for dependence assessment in human reliability analysis
• A data-informed model of performance shaping factors and their interdependencies for use in human reliability analysis
• A fuzzy Bayesian belief net approach to HRA in onshore oil well operations
• A proposal for aviation maintenance safety monitoring process
• A review of decision tree models for assessing Human Reliability Analysis dependence
• Accident reporting deficiencies related to human and organizational factors in engine room fires on board ships
• An overview of experience gained in long term applications of HRA in PSA projects for WWER reactors
• Critical features of emergency procedures: Empirical insights form simulations of nuclear power plant operation
• Experiences with human factors in Norwegian petroleum control centre design and suggestions to handle an increasingly complex uture
• How to deal with commission and omission errors in HRA
• Human factors in the layer of protection analysis with emphasis on alarm system management
• Human reliability analysis for reducing risk in an LPG treatment and storage plant
• Characteristics of the maintenance human errors involved in unplanned reactor trips
• Investigating situational characteristics in the contextual human information processing model for warning citizens
• Modeling nuclear power plant operator knowledge and procedural adherence in the ADS-IDAC simulation model
• Small steps towards big accidents
• Use of ATHEANA to review emergency operating procedures at nuclear power plants
• Integrated risk management and risk-informed decision-making
• Adapted principles of risk-informed decision-making for new nuclear power plants
• Addressing uncertainties in risk-informed decision-making of changes to nuclear power plant technical specifications
• Asset integrity management paradigm for carbon dioxide underground sequestration
• Comparison of risk criteria in safety-critical industries
• Establishing risk-based maintenance strategies for electricity distribution companies
• Impact of event duration on operational risk in financial institutions: A control based approach
• Incorporating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making in electricity distribution system asset management
• Integrating risk management into strategic planning in SMEs
• Multi-reservoir production optimization under uncertainty
• Priorities assignment for actions in a transport system based on a multicriteria decision model
• Review and discussion of basic concepts and principles in integrated risk management
• Risk assessment methods applied to electricity distribution system asset management
• Scientific foundations of risk in complex and dynamic environments
• Social vulnerability to natural and technological hazards: The relevance of scale
• The impact of risk aversion on optimal economic decisions
• Theoretical aspects of using diversity for decreasing of nuclear power plant operation risk
• Maintenance modelling and optimisation
• A bivariate optimum maintenance policy for a system under revealed and unrevealed failures
• A comparison between different uncertainty propagation methods in multivariate analysis
• A maintenance policy for passive components submitted to stress corrosion cracking
• A model of imperfect preventive maintenance efficiency based on the concepts of elasticity and effective age
• A new maintenance management model expressed in UML
• A novel approach to model the degradation of components in electrical production plants
• A risk management approach to a maintenance decision for an ageing system
• A two-phase inspection policy for a single component preparedness system with a mixed time to failure distribution
• Assessment of economical lifetime of heavy-duty machines. Case study
• Condition-based maintenance of engineering systems with periodic inspection
• Dynamic maintenance optimization method for commercial heavy vehicles
• Employing Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for improving processes within maintenance
• Imperfect condition-based maintenance on a finite time span for a gradually deteriorating system
• Increasing availability through maintainability growth using partial Multi Criteria Decision Making (pMCDM)
• Integrating reliability centered maintenance and spare parts stock control
• Interest of a global optimization tool for reliability models adjustment and systems optimization
• Maintenance management and optimization of FPSOs
• Modelling condition monitoring and dynamic grouping of maintenance actions with extended coloured stochastic Petri nets
• Models of availability maximization applied to “k-out-of-n” structures for power systems
• On line condition-based maintenance for time dependent deteriorating systems
• Semi-Markov decision processes for determining multiobjective optimal condition-based replacement policies
• Superposition of renewal processes for modelling imperfect maintenance
• The effective iterative algorithm to solve a maintenance optimization problem of a highly reliable system
• Uncertainty factors in deterioration modelling of process equipment
• A framework for the Monte Carlo simulation of degradation and failure processes in the assessment of maintenance programs performance
• Advanced discrete simulation methods applied to repairable multistate systems
• Comparative cost and utility analysis of monolith and fractionated spacecraft using failure and replacement Markov models
• Component importance measures to identify contributions to system failure for aircraft which dispatch with known faults
• Some optimal life testing for exponential distribution
• Subset simulation and line sampling for advanced Monte Carlo reliability analysis
• Occupational safety
• Applying the Safe Place, Safe Person, Safe Systems framework: Case study findings across multiple industry sectors
• Matching RATE analysis for SMEs with European Agencies data
• Occupational risk management for contact with moving parts of machines
• Occupational risk management for electricity hazard
• Radars and health risk assessment
• The effect of organizational size and structure on the management of OHS risk: A review of two case studies in the chemical ma ufacturing industry
• The impact of the occupational safety control programs on the overall safety level in an industrial cluster
• Organizational learning
• A survey of organization studies relevant to safety and dependability
• Assessment of HSE aspects by employees’ participation in organizational development processes: “What you ask is what you get”
• Cultural differences in design perceptions of consumer products: A Kansei engineering approach
• Decision processes and improved HSE. Training as a contribution to organizational learning and development
• Improving assignment and qualification of safety manager at construction sites
• Professional culture, work practice and reliable operations in shipping
• Risks and engineering design across cultures
• Author index
• Table of Contents
• Preface
• Organization
• Introduction
• Reliability and safety data collection and analysis
• Accelerated test used as a tool for manufacturing correctness check
• An extended Bayesian updating approach to support product selection based on performance testing – A drilling jar case
• Analysing multiple damage causes of complex products using DCD algorithm and WCF approach
• Analysis of accelerated life testing under competing failure modes with initial failures
• Contributions to the modelling of previsional reliability of hydroelectric plants
• Crash pulse analysis using wavelets
• Data farming quality, improving the WSN safety
• Data mining for identification and prediction of safety and reliability characteristics of complex industrial systems and processes
• Test of goodness of fit for normal and lognormal distribution with applications
• Homogeneity and scale testing for small samples with censored and missing data
• Identification of significant effects of altering the testing process with regard to reliability growth management
• Importance of regarding the field failure behaviour of automotive components
• Satellite and satellite subsystems reliability: Statistical data analysis and modeling
• The superposition principle to develop the concept of accelerated degradation testing
• Used cars data processing and TÜV reliability statistics modification
• Evaluation of acute toxicity limits for purposes of risk analysis in the Czech Republic
• Issues related to localization of an LNG facility
• Landfills and risk identification
• Risk and hazard analysis
• A comparative study on the application of simulation techniques for shipboard fire safety analysis
• A new fire compartment system in tunnel – The case of the Gran Sasso National Laboratory
• A risk-based cost-benefit analysis of LPG tank vehicles passive fire protection
• An integrated approach for risk management based on systems availability
• Assessment of major accidents triggered by lightning
• Comparison of different models for risk analysis to estimate the manpower in the case of roughly defined project’s tasks
• Comparison of two cost-benefit type of analyses to support a safety related decision under large uncertainties: A case of use of wireless technology in schools
• Differential importance measure of Markov models using perturbation analysis
• Evacuation analysis: Comparison between NFPA 130 and a micro-simulation model
• Evaluation of safety measures in road tunnels based on cost-effectiveness analysis
• FMECA of a turntable: A fuzzy assessment
• Formal vulnerability assessment: A methodology for assessing and mitigating strategic vulnerabilities in maritime supply chains
• Improving safety in delayed coking units using HAZOP and LOPA methodologies
• Key performance indicators for the inherent safety assessment of hydrogen production and distribution system
• Measures for reducing the probability of ruptures of high pressure natural gas pipelines
• Modelling of energy supply disturbances in network systems
• Multicriteria risk analysis application in a distribution gas pipeline system in Sergipe
• Multiple dimension risk evaluation framework
• Network maintenance contribution in quality terms on distribution network services providers
• On the limitations of the maximum expected utility principle as a basis for rational risk decisions
• Parameterization of consequences of explosions
• Possibilities to evaluate technical measures in a Quantitative Risk Assessment method for land use planning
• Probit functions: Derivation, evaluation and use in risk analysis
• Quantitative risk analysis for underground oil transmission pipelines
• Resilient organizations and resilient praxis – A review of current status related to safety
• Responsibility modelling for risk analysis
• Rethinking sociological perspectives on risk for the possibility to analyse and manage security risks
• Risk analysis procedures for explosives manufacturing
• Risk assessments for high integrity pressure protection system by using layer of protection analysis
• Risk based design of coastal flood defences - A vietnam case
• Risk influence modeling of recent developments in helicopter safety on the Norwegian continental shelf
• Risk informed oversight in air transport using CATS
• Risk management – Selection of adequate tools
• Safety risk requirements for combat pistol and its ammunition
• Self-rescue and safety measures in quantitative risk analysis, modelling and case studies for accidental toxic releases
• The branching model of successive events
• The development of a method and a tool for dynamic task representation as part of a virtual reality application
• The impact of climate change on the need for a probabilistic assessment of harsh weather conditions in germany
• The potential of risk assessment based on statistical approach
• Vulnerability of mid-high rise commercial-residential buildings in the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model
• Risk control in complex environments
• Building safety by resilient organization – A case specific approach
• Lifecycle physical hazards of polymer foam board
• On the use of expert judgment elicitation for autonomous underwater vehicle risk prediction and management
• Risks of polyaromatic hydrocarbons in military training areas
• Risk perception and communication
• Driver boredom and preferred driving speed
• Risk perception, extreme events and institutional trust: A local survey in Portugal
• The prevention of the professional poisoning caused by lead – Case study
• What you should remember when reading psychometric studies of risk perception
• Safety culture
• Evidence-based development of safety culture at the Estonian enterprises
• The industrial relations of safety – Differences in tripartite collaboration in Norwegian industries
• Trust and safety culture: The importance of trust relations in Integrated Operations (IO) in the Norwegian oil industry
• Safety management systems
• A multi-objective approach for risk-management to implement an integrated management system: Quality, security, environment
• A study of railway ERTMS safety with Colored Petri Nets
• Exploring safety critical decision-making
• Software reliability
• Contribution to highly reliable items’ reliability assessment
• Failure analysis of software for displaying safety-relevant information
• Identifying the most important component dependencies in compound software: An experimental study
• On the influence of software vulnerabilities on software reliability: The case of open source component based software
• Principles of theAOP 52 draft on software safety for the ammunition domain
• Software critical for safety in reliability models
• The use of metrics to assess software component dependencies
• Structural reliability and design codes
• A RSM method for probabilistic nonlinear analysis of reinforced concrete bubbler tower structure integrity
• Artificial neural network in probabilistic assessment of strength of thin imperfect plates
• Assessment of deteriorating reinforced concrete road bridges
• Control system design with dependability criterion using structural analysis
• Deterministic and probabilistic analysis of nonsymmetrical wind effects to symmetrical high rise buildings
• Eurocode road traffic load models for weight restricted bridges
• Fluid bearing reliability evaluation using a numerical design of experiments
• Investigation of parameter influences in wind induced structural reaction analysis due to structural model dimensions changes
• Models of thermal actions for bridges
• Probabilistic approaches in the safety analysis of road piers of annular cross-section
• Probabilistic assessment of crack width for existing bridges
• Probabilistic safety redesign of existing structures
• Probabilistic solution and reliability assessment of the hard rock disintegration process
• Structural safety analysis from design to manufacture
• Updating the safety level of concrete elements after conformity control
• Using the Direct Determined Fully Probabilistic Method (DDFPM) for determination of failure
• Author index
• Table of Contents
• Preface
• Organization
• Introduction
• System reliability analysis
• A comparison of safety analysis techniques: Analytical calculations versus Monte Carlo simulations
• A faster numerical procedure for solving non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes
• A k-out-of-n system with components followingWeibull distributions: An algorithmic approach
• A location-specific CCF model for supporting the system design process
• An extensible software platform for reliability and risk modeling and analysis
• A practical approach for determination of reliability-oriented system topology in mechatronic systems
• A practical Markovian model of the availability and reliability of a mass transport service with non-exponential repair times
• A proposed methodology for decision support on ageing systems
• A solvable common-cause failure model for coherent systems
• Comparison of the failure behaviour of the same function in different systems
• Design of complex safety-related systems in accordance with IEC 61508
• Determining reliability parameters for a tree-structured commodity transfer system with non-independent components
• Discrete simulation of reliability and availability systems
• Identification of betweenness-central groups of components in a complex network infrastructure by genetic algorithms
• Importance analysis of multi-state system by tools of differential logical calculus
• Is the "k out of n" system really the best?
• Markov reward model for performance deficiency calculation of refrigeration system
• Mechatronic system reliability evaluation using petri networks and PHI2 method
• Mission completion probability of cycle rate system
• Multiobjective optimization of fault-tolerant aircraft systems considering system degradation
• On the impact of deferred repair on the expected number of system failures – A stochastic model
• Optimization of system component reliability characteristics at early design stage with economically reasonable uncertainty level
• Reliability analysis of multi-state ageing series-consecutive “ m out of k: F" systems
• Reliability analysis of the electronic protection systems with mixed-three branches reliability structure
• Reliability and risk analysis of a ground ship-rope transporter in variable operation conditions
• Reliability assessment of network-based safety-related systems
• Reliability quantification of equipment without operational experience
• Reliability, risk and availability evaluation of port oil pipeline transportation system
• Research on fuel cells reliability in order to use in accumulation systems of electric energy
• Safety and reliability optimization of complex industrial systems and processes
• Safety system reliability calculation – When are advanced formulas and calculation techniques necessary?
• Strategies for handling common cause failures in complex safety instrumented systems – An example to illustrate different methods
• SysML modelling of safety critical multi-technological systems
• The Bayesian reliability growth models based on a new dirichlet prior distribution
• Updating failure rates and test intervals in the operational phase: A practical implementation of IEC 61511 and IEC 61508
• Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
• A Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence approach to model uncertainty analysis
• An Effective Algorithm for variance-based Sensitivity Indices (EASI)
• Composite indicators for security of energy supply in Europe using ordered weighted averaging
• Estimating uncertainties in maximum entropy distribution parameters from small-sample observations
• Exploring uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment used for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management
• Handling epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis by probabilistic and possibilistic approaches
• Lessons learnt from studies on sensitivity analysis techniques in the EU project PAMINA: A benchmark study
• Lessons learnt from studies on sensitivity analysis techniques in the EU project PAMINA: Sensitivity analysis applied to diffe ent HLW PA models
• Reliable design verification of nuclear turbosets using sensitivity analysis on exceedance probabilities
• Some useful features of the Bayesian setting while dealing with uncertainties in industrial practice
• Uncertainty assessments in a semi-quantitative risk analysis, with application to health care
• II Industrial and service sectors: Aeronautics and aerospace
• Cognitive model of team cooperation in en-route air traffic control
• Methods applied to identify causes of air events
• Team cognitive process analysis of air traffic controllers as distributed cognition
• Biotechnology and food industry
• Aggregation of alarms to guarantee quality of pasteurized honey
• Combining predictive modelling and event tree analysis technique for a better food safety management
• How institutional contexts affect conditions for risk expertise
• Critical infrastructures
• “System of systems” approach for interdependent critical infrastructures
• A multiple-objective approach for the vulnerability assessment of infrastructure networks
• A structured approach to modeling interdependencies in risk analysis of critical infrastructures
• Critical infrastructure safety management
• Indicators of component criticality for failure cascade process in network systems
• Modelling interdependencies amongst technical systems
• Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas: Time-dependent interoperability analysis
• Security analysis of network access control implementations
• Electrical and electronic engineering
• Multi-objective genetic algorithm optimization of electrical power transmission networks
• Reliability of electronic devices: Failure mechanisms and testing
• Energy production and distribution
• Increasing the reliability of outdoor MV network by means of remote-controlled elements
• Practical application of MCA8 software for improving reliability of energy supply
• Reliability analysis of electric distribution grid by Monte Carlo method
• Health and medicine
• A hybrid technique to model dynamic aspects of risk in healthcare settings
• Design of an incident report analysis system for healthcare
• Modified logistic regression as a tool for discrimination
• Information technology and telecommunications
• Application of linear logic to backward reachability analysis of Colored Petri Nets
• Guttman scaling in the FMEA of IT security objectives in enterprises
• Modeling resource availability and optimal fee for priority classes in a website
• Reliability analysis of next generation mobile networks
• Rollback and roll-forward of architecturally fixed and non-fixed states
• Safety analysis of the on-board front-end transceiver of the Balise Transmission Module
• UML-based Fault Injection for Software Model Testing (FISMT)
• Using virtualisation and simulation – The way to ensuring more reliable and effective teaching and testing process IT technology
• Manufacturing
• RAMS modeling for maintenance audits
• The quality of graphical data display
• Tools for monitoring and evaluating of warranty costs development
• Warranty cost models state-of-art: A practical review to the framework of warranty cost management
• Marine industry
• Risk assessment in process of LNG terminal design
• Quantitative analysis of maritime security assessment in ISPS
• Natural hazards
• EC conformity of an avalanche release system
• Learning from natural disasters: The case of Tabasco’s flooding
• The potential use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy (part 1): Basic principles
• The use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy (part 2): Estimation of the individual and societal risk for the dike rings in the Netherlands
• Nuclear engineering
• A comparative study of two quantification algorithms to find cable importance in a fire PRA model
• Augmenting the traditional defense-in-depth strategy with the concept of a diagnosable safety architecture
• Fire PSA for a German BWR – Enhanced results and potential plant specific improvements
• Model uncertainties in a PSA for a nuclear power plant
• Monte Carlo simulation for the estimation of external explosion event probability
• Multiobjective optimization of test policies for GRP-modeled aging systems
• Nuclear power plant maintenance optimization
• Reliability aspects of a stochastic non-stationary process
• Offshore oil and gas
• Analysis of risk indicators for major accidents on offshore installations
• Assessment of reliability and residual lifetime of flexible risers subjected to time-varying corrosive environments
• Defined situations of hazard and accident related to integrated operations on the Norwegian continental shelf
• Disintegration and revival of tripartite collaboration on HSE in the Norwegian petroleum industry
• Fire loads for realistic risk assessment applications in petrochemical industry
• How shared situational awareness influence organizational accident risk in the offshore oil industry
• Job satisfaction and extensive participation processes in organizational development – A case study from the Norwegian petroleum industry
• Life extension of machinery in the oil and gas industry
• Power system regularity challenges connected to electrification of large scale offshore installations form land
• Risk influence factors related to evacuation from offshore installations
• Risk regulation in the Norwegian petroleum industry: Robustness and changing methods of operation
• Security and protection
• Pool homogenisation for empirical Bayes models
• Terrorism risk as a change stimulus to the Norwegian society
• Surface transportation (road and train)
• Application of safety principles for a guidance system in public transport
• Design of a testing bench for simulating tightened-up operating conditions of train’s passenger access
• Evaluation of pressure load on platform screen doors in a metro system
• Exposure zones assessment of dangerous object transport
• Logistic system modeling using fault trees with time dependencies – Example of tram network
• Quantitative risk assessment for railway tunnels: An integrated method and tool to support the fulfillment of the most recent ormative requirements
• RAM performance monitoring and MTBF demonstration on the SBB SA-NBS project
• Reliability analysis of an ERTMS on-board balise transmission equipment
• Reliability and safety of railway signalling and interlocking devices
• Simulation approaches to evaluate dependability of satellite-based positioning services in railway transportation applications
• Waterborne transportation
• Fire safety assessment of hazardous material transporting ship using fire simulation
• Risk estimation of the sea-going ship casualty as the consequence of propulsion loss
• The concept of navigational safety management on coastal areas
• The use of safety management systems within the Norwegian tanker industry – Do they really improve safety?
• Author index
• Back cover