Israel's National Security
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Israel's National Security

Issues and Challenges Since the Yom Kippur War

Efraim Inbar

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eBook - ePub

Israel's National Security

Issues and Challenges Since the Yom Kippur War

Efraim Inbar

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About This Book

This volume presents a comprehensive analysis of Israel's security challenges since the 1973 October War. Efraim Inbar takes the reader on a historical journey through Israel's relations in the Middle East that begins with an analysis of Israel's strategic thinking after 1973 and ends with an important look at the recent Second Lebanese War and the Iranian nuclear challenge. Israel's National Security delves not only into Israel's responses, but also its relationships in the international community, providing a complete picture of how Israel's strategic environment has evolved over time.

Relevant to today's current political atmosphere, the volume dissects the influences of the growing appeal of Islamic extremism on the peace process, Israel strategic partnerships with India and Turkey, and Israel's relations with the Palestinians.

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Publisher
Routledge
Year
2007
ISBN
9781134059393

Part I
The aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur War

1
Israeli strategic thinking after 1973

The October 1973 War was a turning point for Israel. Although the Israeli army finally overcame the Arab forces, Israel did not feel victorious. At the war’s end it appeared politically isolated and more dependent than ever on US diplomatic, economic and military support. Moreover, in the period since the war the differences between Israel and its sole supporter, the US, regarding the Middle East grew considerably.1 Although American influence in the region seemed to be on the rise following the 1973 War, the US has in fact been more susceptible to Arab pressure. America valued the Arab oil states, wished to preserve Egypt’s pro-Western turn, and even hoped to attract Syria or Iraq into its fold. Israel, America’s embattled ally, which by then was often considered a pariah, had become less important to America’s interests.
In contrast to Israel, Arab political power was greater than before the war. The Arabs believed that they had ended the war victoriously, and that Israel had become militarily assailable. Its very survival was once again an issue. Further, the American support for Israel in the future no longer seemed so secure, and a first strike against Israel, which would be militarily advantageous, would not be so costly from the political point of view.2
After 1973, Israel was less confident and much more vulnerable to American pressures. Those pressures led to agreements in 1974 and 1975 with Syria and Egypt which were not entirely to Israel’s liking. These agreements were not perceived in Israel at the time of signing as significantly reducing Arab hostility or Israel’s need for modern weaponry. Both sides continued to engage in a costly arms race, which further increased Israel’s dependence on the US. The 1979 Egyptian–Israeli Peace Treaty, which was also reached after heavy American prodding, has in the short run alleviated Israel’s military and political situation, but has not drastically changed its strategic dilemma. The treaty is currently being subjected to growing strain, and its future is uncertain. The treaty also challenges Israeli control of the West Bank, the area which is most difficult to relinquish due to its proximity to Israel’s population centers. Moreover, the main threat to Israel in recent years has been the potential Arab alliance on its eastern front, not Egypt. The combined forces of Syria, Jordan and Iraq outdistance the Egyptians in every type of weapon; they are also closer to Israel’s heartland. Israel’s threat perception, therefore, has not changed, even after 1979. The need to upgrade the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was accentuated by the immense Arab military buildup – in both qualitative and quantitative terms – since 1973.
This chapter examines Israel’s strategic thinking since the 1973 October War. We can distinguish two stages in the development of Israeli strategic thinking since the 1973 War: the first in the 1970s and the second starting in 1980. The first period was dedicated largely to rebuilding the IDF and regaining the confidence which had been shattered in the 1973 War. An unprecedented growth of the military forces took place. This period was characterized by an emphasis on the strengthening of Israel’s defensive posture, i.e., the ability to absorb an Arab first attack to be followed by an Israeli counter-attack.
In the second period we can discern a shift from the quantitative aspect of Israel’s arms competition with her Arab opponents in favor of the qualitative aspect. In addition, a system of casus belli was reintroduced and a greater predilection for pre-emptive strikes was adopted.
The two periods are indeed distinguishable not only by the content of their military thinking but also by differing leaders, ideologies and temperaments. Israel was ruled during most of the first period by Rabin’s Labour-dominated government (June 1974 to June 1977), while the Chief of Staff for most of the period was the Labour-picked Lt. Gen. Mordechai Gur (April 1974 to April 1978).3
In 1977, Labour was succeeded by Begin’s Likud-dominated government. In 1978, Gur was replaced by Lt. Gen. Rafael Eitan, who is ideologically closer to the Likud. The main changes in Israeli strategic thinking in the second period are connected however to Ariel Sharon’s ascendance in security affairs. After Moshe Dayan resigned from his post as foreign minister in October 1979 and Ezer Weizman, the defense minister, did the same in May 1980, Sharon became the dominant figure in Israel’s defense policy. Indeed, after the 1981 election, he was elevated from the Ministry of Agriculture to the Defence Ministry.
Under Rabin, Israel’s immediate goals were to rebuild an adequate and confident military force and to delay a war with the Arabs until political circumstances improved and until the IDF was militarily ready for such an encounter.4 Washington was needed for both objectives. The US was Israel’s sole military supplier and the only country capable of giving massive support, and, moreover, was regarded by Israel as sensitive enough to its security needs to be relied on as a mediator. Therefore, Israel made the necessary concessions to reach the September 1975 agreement. Yet Israel succeeded in greatly reducing Egypt’s incentive to go to war in the near future, thus weakening the Arab coalition, and managed to secure its arms supply.
Indeed, Begin inherited a well-armed Israel with greater freedom of action than it had enjoyed earlier. The Begin government continued the strong American orientation and succeeded in further reducing the likelihood of Egypt joining a war against Israel. Yet, due to Begin’s nationalistic ideology, temperament and belief that Israel is an indispensable ally of the US, and due to his greater ability to withstand American pressure, Israel displayed fewer inhibitions in carrying out policies causing tension between Jerusalem and Washington. Furthermore, its tendency to threaten the use of military force increased. By the time Begin came to power, Israel had overcome the material and psychological problems of waging war which had existed in the first years following the October War.

The first period

The defensive strategy
Israel is a status quo power in that it has no further territorial claims, while its Arab neighbors aim for land and entertain dark dreams of politicide. Before 1967, Israel, although defensive from the strategic point of view, adopted military doctrine based upon a system of casus belli, according to which preventive or pre-emptive attacks would transfer the battle to enemy territory.5
After June 1967, Israel altered this approach in the belief that the strategic depth its new borders provided had eliminated the threat to its existence, and enabled it to absorb an Arab first strike.6 This reasoning was based on the theory of the ‘superiority of the defense’ – that the defender enjoys an advantage since the attacker had to expose himself and, ceteris paribus, requires several times as many men and resources.7
In light of the October War, some analysts advocated that the IDF relied on the attack, and renewed its predilection for pre-emptive strikes of the kind seen in 1956 and 1967.8 Chief of Staff Gur seemed, at first glance, to confirm a change. He said, ‘It is important that the world and our neighbours know that, under certain conditions, we leave open the option of starting the next war.’9
Nevertheless, contrary to general interpretations, Israel did not revert to its pre-1967 doctrine immediately following the Yom Kippur War. In fact, it continued to maintain that it could afford to absorb an Arab first strike. Yigal Allon emphasized that only with secure borders could Israel adopt a defensive posture which would enable the small standing army units of Israel’s Defense Force to hold back the invading Arab armies until most of the country’s reserves could be mobilized. These security zones would thus guarantee enough time to launch the counter-offensive needed to defeat any such aggression.10 Allon also specifically rejected any Israeli plan for preventive war: ‘Israel will never launch a preventive war because of practical considerations and matters of principle alike.’11 Because of his greater sensitivity to Israel’s image abroad, Allon as Minister of Foreign Affairs was probably a little over-zealous in this statement. In fact, Allon did not preclude a preventive air strike in the case of repeated threatening concentrations of Arab forces at Israel’s borders.12 However, he preferred that his better judgment did not attract publicity. Shimon Peres, the Defense Minister, also believed that talking about the possibility of a pre-emptive strike was politically unwise. Peres actually believed that, for political reasons, Israel should, as far as possible, avoid pre-emptive strikes, even in case of clear signs of imminent Arab attack.13
Rabin also diminished the importance of a pre-emptive war as long as Israel was deployed in the post-1967 lines. He added another condition however: an adequate supply of arms from American or Israeli sources.14 The government was obviously not interested in fostering an image of an ‘aggressive’ Israel. This position suited the perceived growing isolation of Israel and the foreseeable diplomatic repercussions an Israeli-initiated attack could induce. Therefore, Rabin expressed the government’s displeasure with Chief of Staff Gur’s declarations.15
Nevertheless, Rabin’s two conditions constituted a veiled threat, particularly against the US, to the effect that Israel could initiate the destabilization of the region if weapons became unavailable and if it were pushed into an untenable geopolitical position. Rabin’s American orientation required him to accommodate Israeli policies to those of the US, but without entirely giving up Israel’s potential for non-cooperation.
Indeed, the primary consideration against a renewed emphasis on a preemptive strike was the American position against it. Before October 1973, Kissinger had for months warned the Israelis not to launch a pre-emptive strike. The warnings were accompanied by forecasts of doom if Israel were to ignore his counsel.16 Rabin was the courier for many of those messages. No doubt this experience reinforced his inclination not to recommend military action against Washington’s wishes.17 Kissinger continued to signal his opposition to an Israeli pre-emptive posture in the post-October War period.18 His close relations with the Israeli high policy elite left no doubt as to the American preference. The Israeli government was obviously aware that an ‘aggressive’ Israel might stand alone.
Not only politicians sensitive to international considerations advocated a strategic defensive posture. The Israeli military shared this thinking in spite of the Yom Kippur War shock. Gur, in an interview with Bamahane, the IDF organ, said,
After the Six Day War, having more comfortable land borders, more distant from centres of population, Israel added the option of absorbing a first strike by the enemy. After the Yom Kippur War we in the government and in the General Staff continued to hold the same view.19
Lt. Gen. Rafael Eitan, the present Chief of Staff, a paratrooper officer of great repute and of unquestionable offensive-minded credentials, confirmed, when in charge of the Northern Command, all that Gur had claimed. He said,
There is no need to describe as constraining a situation in which Israel is forced to fight a defensive war. Most of the Syrian army was destroyed in the Yom Kippur War in the defensive battle. When an army is well prepared and ready for the coming attack, it is much easier to annihilate the enemy when on the defensive.20
The uselessness of a defensive posture was not one of the lessons learned by the IDF following its initial failures in the October 1973 War.21 Rather, it concluded that the defensive posture had to be augmented with several elements found wanting in 1973.
In the post-October War period Israel, as elabourated below, enhanced its strategic defensive posture and lowered the public profile of its offensive capacity due to growing international constraints and military factors. Yet it was argued that Israel did not have the resources to win a war by defense alone. The Arabs, richer in manpower and material, cou...

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