Modeling of Transport Demand

Analyzing, Calculating, and Forecasting Transport Demand

V.A Profillidis, G.N. Botzoris

• Publisher: Elsevier
• Year: 2018
• Print ISBN:
  9780128115138
• eBook ISBN:
  9780128115145
• Topic: Social Sciences
• Subtopic: Sociology
• Index: Social Sciences

Modeling of Transport Demand explains the mechanisms of transport demand, from analysis to calculation and forecasting. Packed with strategies for forecasting future demand for all transport modes, the book helps readers assess the validity and accuracy of demand forecasts. Forecasting and evaluating transport demand is an essential task of transport professionals and researchers that affects the design, extension, operation, and maintenance of all transport infrastructures. Accurate demand forecasts are necessary for companies and government entities when planning future fleet size, human resource needs, revenues, expenses, and budgets. The operational and planning skills provided in Modeling of Transport Demand help readers solve the problems they face on a daily basis. Modeling of Transport Demand is written for researchers, professionals, undergraduate and graduate students at every stage in their careers, from novice to expert. The book assists those tasked with constructing qualitative models (based on executive judgment, Delphi, scenario writing, survey methods) or quantitative ones (based on statistical, time series, econometric, gravity, artificial neural network, and fuzzy methods) in choosing the most suitable solution for all types of transport applications. - Presents the most recent and relevant findings and research - both at theoretical and practical levels - of transport demand - Provides a theoretical analysis and formulations that are clearly presented for ease of understanding - Covers analysis for all modes of transportation - Includes case studies that present the most appropriate formulas and methods for finding solutions and evaluating results

Chapter 1

Transport Demand and Factors Affecting It

Abstract

This chapter deals with factors affecting transport demand. First, the impact of transport on the various aspects of human life is assessed. The basic definitions and metrics of transport demand, along with an account of their historical evolution, are provided. This chapter explains how transport demand influences all components and activities of the transport system: planning, design, construction, maintenance, operation, level of saturation, fleet, personnel, commercial and tariff policy, revenues. The overwhelming and revolutionary effects of new technologies on transport demand are explored. The principal drivers (income and purchasing power, technological evolutions, travel costs, social attitudes and lifestyle, population, urban development, international trade, industrial evolutions) for both passenger and freight transport are identified and analyzed, and their evolution over time is examined. The correlation between transport demand and economic activity is studied extensively. This chapter also provides a survey of whether there exists some form of coupling (similar rates of growth of transport and gross domestic product [GDP]) or decoupling (a break in the link between transport and GDP). Indexes that testify as to the existence (or not) of coupling or decoupling and factors affecting the degree of decoupling are presented. Other factors of the internal and external environment of a transport activity (such as human resources, energy, environmental effects, institutional framework, globalization, and competition) are investigated. The various forms of elasticities are described.

Keywords

Competition; Coupling; Decoupling; Demand; Digitalization; Economy; Elasticities; Environment; GDP; Globalization; Internet; Model; Trade; Transport

Chapter Outline

1. 1.1 The Basic Definitions Related to Transport Demand
2. 1.2 Historical Evolution of Transport Modes and Demand
3. 1.3 How Transport Demand Affects the Transport System
4. 1.4 The Overwhelming and Revolutionary Effects of New Technologies
5. 1.5 Evolution Over Time of the Principal Drivers of Transport Demand
6. 1.6 How Transport Demand Affects the Planning of the Transport System
7. 1.7 Transport Demand and Economic Activity: Coupling and Decoupling
8. 1.8 Factors of the Internal and External Environment of Transport and Effects on Demand
9. 1.9 Transport Demand and Elasticities

1.1. The Basic Definitions Related to Transport Demand

1.1.1. Transport and Human Life

Transport, along with food, health, energy, and home, is an essential and crucial activity of human life. Without transport the world of every human being would be limited to a few dozen kilometers around the area of his or her settlement. It is with transport that mankind has tried from the prehistoric era to broaden its horizons and the scale of its activities, to look for better conditions for survival and prosperity. Only in the case of very primitive human life, was man living, producing, and developing in a narrow geographical area. However, from the time of the first forms of human social organization, humans have realized the essential importance of meeting other people, exchanging experiences, coordinating their lives and strategies, discovering other civilizations and ways of living, buying and selling goods, and protecting or conquering land [1,2]¹.

A good index which illustrates the importance of transport in human activity is its contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) of a particular country. Indeed, transport represents, in 2015, 6.6% of GDP² for the 28 European Union (EU-28) countries (within EU-28, France 7.4%, Germany 7.8%, Italy 7.8%, Spain 7.1%, the United Kingdom 7.4%), 6.3% for the United States, 8.1% for Canada, 4.9% for China, 5.5% for Ind...

Table of contents

• Cover image
• Title page
• Table of Contents
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Preface
• Chapter 1. Transport Demand and Factors Affecting It
• Chapter 2. Evolution and Trends of Transport Demand
• Chapter 3. Methods of Modeling Transport Demand
• Chapter 4. Executive Judgment, Delphi, Scenario Writing, and Survey Methods
• Chapter 5. Statistical Methods for Transport Demand Modeling
• Chapter 6. Trend Projection and Time Series Methods
• Chapter 7. Econometric, Gravity, and the 4-Step Methods
• Chapter 8. Artificial Intelligence—Neural Network Methods
• Chapter 9. Fuzzy Methods
• References
• Abbreviations
• Index