Agriculture is different from other economic sectors of the economy in ways that have far-reaching implications for the analysis of labor markets (Timmer, 1988). A multitude of farms are scattered across a vast geographic space. Production and labor demands are seasonal and uncertain, separated in time and dependent on the whims of nature. Farmers make their planting decisions months (and in the case of perennial crops, years) ahead of harvest. Labor and other inputs have to be available exactly when farmers need them, sometimes with little to no advance notice. Perishable crops not harvested on time can rot in the fields. Late harvests can cause farmers to miss key marketing windows or contract deadlines, and crops left in the field are exposed to disease and weather risks. If labor is not available to plant crops and apply inputs on time, or if the rains do not come, there might not be anything to harvest at all. All of these considerations make the demand for farm labor uncertain and dynamicâthat is, it changes over time.
This chapter introduces the complex challenges associated with farm labor demand and supply, the uncertain and seasonal equilibrium between the two, and the role of immigration in addressing the farm labor problem. It concludes with a view toward the future, discussing how agriculture must adjust to a new farm labor equilibrium as people move off the farm and the global demand for food continues to rise.
The Problem of Farm Labor Demand
The demand for farm labor derives from farmersâ production decisions, which we will learn about in detail in Chapter 2. Agriculture differs from other industries in intrinsic ways that differentiate the timing and magnitude of labor demand. The agricultural production process is biological. It relies heavily on inputs from nature (land and weather). Consequently, agricultural production is highly seasonal. There are long time lags between applying inputs and harvesting outputs. Although farmers can directly control how much they plant, uncertainty surrounds how large the harvestable crop will be and how the harvested crop will be valued on the market. Farming requires land, so agriculture is dispersed over a wide geographic area. Because agricultural production is spread out geographically, involves long time lags, and is highly seasonal and uncertain, timely access to labor, like other inputs, is critical to the success and competitiveness of farm operations.
Agricultural production and access to labor vary substantially around the world. In parts of the United States, large agribusinesses [which the American journalist Carey McWilliams referred to as âfactories in the fieldâ] dominate the farm landscape (McWilliams, 2000). Millions of small family farmers dominate production in low-income countries.1 In most of the world, households, not firms, make most of the agricultural production decisions, and the family provides most or all of the labor needed on the farm. Often, hired labor is an imperfect substitute for family labor, because hired workers might not work as hard, they might not be available for hire near the farm, and poor farmers might lack the cash to hire workers, particularly in the preharvest period prior to receiving payment for the harvest.
Agriculture is marked by a high degree of uncertainty; thus, considerations of risk are a hallmark of agricultural decision-making (Moschini and Hennessy, 2001). There are two broad categories of risk in agriculture: Production risk and marketing risk. On the plus side, nature provides inputs like sunshine and rainfall at no cost. The downside is that farmers cannot predict when the rains will or will not come, whether there will be a long season with no sunshine, or whether a swarm of locusts will devastate the crop. Shocks of nature break the engineering relationship between inputs and outputs. Variables outside farmersâ control determine how much of a harvestable crop there will be on the tree or in the fieldânot only the vagaries of weather, but also risks associated with pests and access to inputs, including labor.
This sort of uncertainty generally does not arise in manufacturing, where engineering relationships govern production processes. Farmersâ access to hired workers and other inputs, credit, insurance, and a market for the harvested crop impacts how they will respond to seasonality and uncertainty in agricultural production. New evidence suggests that climate change is increasing agricultural production risk as well as impacting agricultural labor markets.2
Once the harvestable stock of produce is mature in the fields or on the trees, agricultural production is largely a resource-extraction problemâhow to harvest the crop and get it to market in the most economically efficient way. Most of the risk at this stage revolves around the availability of harvest labor and market prices. Seasonal variations in spot-market prices create critical timing windows for agricultural producers. Increasingly, grower-shippers have time-sensitive contractual commitments as preferred suppliers to mass merchandisers (e.g., Walmart and Costco), supermarket chains, and food service industries. This is true in developing as well as high-income countries (Reardon et al., 2003). Failure to harvest a field on time can result in the grower-shipper failing to meet delivery commitments to buyers under Vender Managed Inventory Replacement (VMIR) and other preferred supplier agreements. Some research suggests that, with the consolidation of the retail sector, shippers have less negotiating power and are more fearful of losing accounts if they fail to comply with buyer requests. Increasing trade integration creates price competition and narrows marketing windows, intensifying pressure on farmers. Having access to workers at critical moments in the production process can make the difference between meeting delivery commitments or not.
Labor supply risks are paramount at harvest time. An important potential component of risk is the lack of available labor at the times and places needed to harvest crops. Production risk can result from an insufficient labor supply if fruit spoils on the trees before it can be harvested or if labor shortages prevent farmers from marketing their harvest on time and complying with their contractual obligations higher up on the supply chain.
The Agricultural Production Function
The production function occupies center stage in farmersâ decisions, as it does in the microeconomics of all firms. It describes a technological relationship, a recipe to convert inputs into outputs. In most sectors of the economy, the production function represents a known engineering relationship between inputs and outputs, like how many copies of this book can be produced from a given amount of paper, ink, capital (printing machines), labor, and so on. Like a kitchen recipe, a production function can describe a fixed relationship between inputs and outputs. For example, a tomato harvester might pick an average of 30â33 1-pound buckets in an hour, implying around 1.9 min of labor per harvested bucket.3 Most production functions are not linear, though. They reflect decreasing marginal productivity of inputs as well as the possibility that inputs may substitute for one another (unlike flour and salt in a pancake recipe). Increased use of machinery can reduce labor needs. Even in the harvest, diminishing returns eventually set in if too many workers are added to the harvest crew.
The harvest depends on the stock of produce in the orchard or field ready to harvest as well as the inputs applied at harvest time. The harvestable stock, in turn, is uncertain, and it depends on decisions made prior to the harvest. Input-output relationships involved in putting a harvestable crop in the field or on the tree are different from those involved at harvest time. Agricultural production is sequential, with different production functions describing input-output relationships at different stages of the production process. The sequential nature of crop production and risk means that we should not treat farm labor like other production inputs or like labor in other sectors of the economy using a conventional single-stage production modelâeven though most researchers do just that.
Commercial farmers, like other producers, use the technology at their disposal to combine inputs and produce output, with the objective of maximizing profits. (They may have other objectives as well, but for most purposes, profits are a reasonable focus in agricultural models.) Profit maximization implies employing additional variable inputs, including labor, up to the point where the benefit of adding an additional unit of input (the marginal value product of the input) just equals the input's per-unit price, given the production function. A farmer will not pay employees for an addit...