Evidence-Based Climate Science

Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming

Don Easterbrook

• Publisher: Elsevier
• Year: 2011
• eBook ISBN: 9780123859570
• Topic: Physical Sciences
• Subtopic: Meteorology & Climatology

Global warming and human-induced climate change are perhaps the most important scientific issues of our time. These issues continue to be debated in the scientific community and in the media without true consensus about the role of greenhouse gas emissions as a contributing factor.Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data opposing CO2 emissions as the primary source of global warming objectively gathers and analyzes scientific data concerning patterns of past climate changes, influences of changes in ocean temperatures, the effect of solar variation on global climate, and the effect of CO2 on global climate to clearly and objectively present counter-global-warming evidence not embraced by proponents of CO2.- An unbiased, evidence-based analysis of the scientific data concerning climate change and global warming- Authored by 8 of the world's leading climate scientists, each with more than 25 years of experience in the field- Extensive analysis of the physics of CO2 as a greenhouse gas and its role in global warming- Comprehensive citations, references, and bibliography- Adaptation strategies are presented as alternative reactions to greenhouse gas emission reductions

Chapter 1. Geologic Evidence of Recurring Climate Cycles and Their Implications for the Cause of Global Climate Changes—The Past is the Key to the Future

Don J. Easterbrook

Department of Geology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225, USA

Chapter Outline

1. Introduction3

2. Is Global Warming Real?4

2.1. Does Global Warming Prove that it was Caused by Increasing CO₂?6

3. Melting Glaciers8

3.1. Ice Sheets8

3.2. Alpine Glaciers13

4. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide15

4.1. Global Warming and CO₂ During the Past Century17

4.2. Is Global Warming Caused by Rising CO₂?19

5. Lessons from Past Global Climate Changes19

5.1. Magnitude and Rate of Abrupt Climate Changes21

5.2. Significance of Previous Global Climate Changes32

6. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)36

6.1. The Cool Phase of the PDO is Now Entrenched and ‘Global Warming’ (1977–1998) is Over37

7. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)38

8. Solar Variability and Climate Change40

8.1. Global Temperature Change, Sunspots, Solar Irradiance, ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C Production42

9. Where are We Headed During the Coming Century?44

9.1. IPCC Predictions45

9.2. Predictions Based on Past Climate Patterns46

Geologic evidence clearly shows that global climate changes have occurred many times in the geologic past. As shown in the Greenland GISP2 ice cores, late Pleistocene abrupt temperature fluctuations have occurred many times in only 20–100 years, clearly not caused by atmospheric CO₂ because they occurred thousands of years before atmospheric CO₂ levels began to rise. Glaciers are natural paleo-thermometers, recording hundreds of warming and cooling periods over many thousands of years.

Atmospheric temperature measurements, glacier fluctuations, and oxygen isotope data from Greenland ice cores record a cool period from about 1880 to about 1915, during which many glaciers advanced, to terminal positions reached during the Little Ice Age. Many cold temperature records in North America were set during this period. Global temperatures rose steadily in the 1920s, 1930s, and early 1940s. More high temperature records for the century were recorded in the 1930s than in any other decade of the 20^th century, all before CO₂ began to increase rapidly after 1945. Global temperatures began to cool in the mid-1940s at the time when CO₂ emissions began to soar and a 30-year cool period lasted until 1977. Many of the world's glaciers advanced during this time, and recovered a good deal of the ice lost during the 1915–1945 warm period. The global cooling that prevailed from 1945 to 1977 ended abruptly in 1977 when the Pacific Ocean shifted from its cool mode to its warm mode and global temperatures began to rise, initiating two decades of global warming.

In the past century, each of the two warm periods (1915–1945 and 1978–1998) and each of the two cool periods (1880–1915 and 1945–1977) resulted from cyclic changes of Pacific sea surface temperatures (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). In 1999, the NE Pacific changed abruptly from its warm mode to its cool mode, bringing the 1978–1998 warming to a close. Projection of the pattern of cyclic warming and cooling over the past 500 years strongly suggests that the climate will continue to cool for the next several decades.

1. Introduction

Recent global warming (1978–1998) has pushed climate changes into the forefront of scientific inquiry with a great deal at stake for human populations. With no unequivocal, “smoking gun”, cause-and-effect evidence that increasing CO₂ caused the 1978–1998 global warming, and despite the media blitz over the 2007 IPCC report, no tangible physical evidence exists that CO₂ is causing global warming. Computer climate models assume that CO₂ is the cause and computer model simulations are all based on that assumption.

The IPCC report has been hotly contested by many scientists (e.g., Idso and Singer, 2009, Spencer, 2010a, Spencer, 2010b and Horner, 2008). Abundant physical evidence from the geologic past provides a record of former periods of recurrent global warming and cooling that were far more intense than recent warming and cooling. These geologic records provide a clear evidence of global warming and cooling that could not have been caused by increased CO₂. Thus, we can use these records to project global climate in the future—the past is the key to the future.

2. Is Global Warming Real?

Little doubt remains that global temperatures have risen since the Little Ice Age several centuries ago. Although surface historic temperature records have been shown to be questionable due to poor siting practices and tampering of data by various governmental agencies, historical accounts, fluctuations of glaciers, and ice core records affirm that warming and cooling have indeed occu...

Table of contents

• Cover image
• Table of Contents
• Front Matter
• Copyright
• Preface
• Chapter 1. Geologic Evidence of Recurring Climate Cycles and Their Implications for the Cause of Global Climate Changes—The Past is the Key to the Future
• Chapter 2. Evidence for Synchronous Global Climatic Events
• Chapter 3. A Critical Look at Surface Temperature Records
• Chapter 4. 2010—The Hottest Year on Record?
• Chapter 5. Relationship of Multidecadal Global Temperatures to Multidecadal Oceanic Oscillations
• Chapter 6. Setting the Frames of Expected Future Sea Level Changes by Exploring Past Geological Sea Level Records
• Chapter 7. The Maldives: A Measure of Sea Level Changes and Sea Level Ethics
• Chapter 8. Arctic Sea Ice
• Chapter 9. Have Increases in CO2 Contributed to the Recent Large Upswing in Atlantic Basin Major Hurricanes Since 1995?
• Chapter 10. Solar Changes and the Climate
• Chapter 11. The Current Solar Minimum and Its Consequences for Climate
• Chapter 12. Total Solar Irradiance Satellite Composites and their Phenomenological Effect on Climate
• Chapter 13. Global Brightening and Climate Sensitivity
• Chapter 14. The Relationship of Sunspot Cycles to Gravitational Stresses on the Sun
• Chapter 15. A Simple KISS Model to Examine the Relationship Between Atmospheric CO2 Concentration, and Ocean & Land Surface Temperatures, Taking into Consideration Solar and Volcanic Activity, As Well As Fossil Fuel Use
• Index