CHAPTER 1
UP AND TO THE RIGHT
âAnyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm.â
âPublilius Syrus
EEverybody thinks Chernobyl exploded.
They picture flashing lights and blaring alarms as the power plant erupted into a morbidly fantastic mushroom cloud. They picture something immediate and spectacular. They picture a single moment of disaster. But thatâs not how it happened.
On February 21, 1979, Yuri Andropovâthen chairman of the KGBâfiled a report. Two years before, construction on the nowinfamous nuclear power plant had been completed, deep behind Ukraineâs Iron Curtain. As a dutiful servant of his beloved Soviet Union, Andropov felt compelled to alert his superiors to some errors he had been made aware of in the plantâs construction. If ignored, Andropov wrote, these flaws might âlead to failures and accidents.â
The report was sent, delivered, and completely ignored. Chernobyl was the crown jewel in the Sovietâs nuclear kingdom. In their rapidly expanding effort to compete with the Westâs nuclear power plants, weapons, and technology, it was easier to ignore Andropovâs report than it would have been to admit defeat, flaws, or both.
However, seven years after Andropovâs first report, those same superiors received another report. And this one was a lot harder to ignore. Its title was as devastating as its contents: âUrgent Report: Accident at the Chernobyl Atomic Power Station.â
There it was. Andropov had been correct. The damage was being done. All the indicators in the plant were showing levels well past the red line. Disaster was imminent. The best action at that point would have been for the government to immediately evacuate the area, repair the breaches, and help the affected citizenry recover.
Except they didnât.
For a report detailing a nuclear meltdown, the most chilling line comes in a moment of shocking bureaucratic detachment: âIt is not required to take special measures, including the evacuation of the population from the city.â
The Chernobyl disaster occurred on April 26, 1986. Before the close of 1986, two more reports had been filed. These explained that atmospheric and agriculture tests were detecting levels of radiation âdangerous to the health of the population.â
By the end of the year, the radiation levels were more than 50 times higher than Soviet standards of safe levels for human exposure. The experts writing these reports projected that at least 4,000 lives would be lost due to radiation poisoning and environmental collapse. But to this day, the true consequences of this disaster remain a closely guarded state secret.
The husk of the power plant that remains, and the surrounding areas, are waiting to become habitable once more. They should be ready in just under 20,000 years.
Delayed reactions, willful ignorance, and pride cost the lives of thousands and made the area around Chernobyl uninhabitable for the next 650 generations.
Everybody thinks Chernobyl exploded without warning. But it didnât.
It leaked.
And thatâs the real horror. Because while an explosion happens suddenly and without warning, a leak can be patched over. An accidental explosion can take lives and destroy communities. It is sudden, tragic, and unexpected. But a leak has to be tolerated. It has to be recognized. It has to be ignored long enough for it to become a disaster.
The lesson of Chernobyl has little to do with humanityâs technological hubris or fateâs spite and everything to do with the consequences of intentional inaction. Itâs a lesson worth revisiting.
Today, the global economy is having its Yuri Andropov moment. The indicator lights arenât yet flashing. The alarms arenât yet blaring, but we are approaching a red line of our own.
CERTIFIED SUSTAINABLE
A friend of mine was having lunch one afternoon at a large outdoor shopping center. The center was under renovation, and many of its new storefronts had yet to be filled. One such lot was emblazoned with a wraparound banner the size of a Buick advertising a new sushi restaurant. Nothing strange about that, but the copy of this particular ad caught his eye:
âThe worldâs first certified-sustainable sushi restaurantâ
And that was it. Nothing about the way the food would taste or how affordable the meals would be. The sole message that this new business wanted passersby to know was not âWeâre delicious!â or âWeâre so fresh.â Rather, it was âWe are sustainable.â
As he recounted this to me, I was struck by the laser focus of it all. Because it meant that somewhere, sometime, at some meeting this group of entrepreneurs had decided to build a food business on the back of sustainability. Not price. Not convenience. Not taste. Sustainability. And they arenât alone.
Business has started to change. Itâs far from omnipresent, but the shift has started.
Tech giants like Facebook and Alphabet are tripping over themselves to show the world how seriously they are taking things like emissions, ethical supply chains, diversity, and employee satisfaction. Fast-food companies are replacing meat with plant-based alternatives. Even Gillette is attacking its core market with advertisements addressing toxic masculinity.
I started my first company in 2000. This wasnât how the world worked back then. Back then the name of the game was convenience; people wanted things easier, cheaper, and faster, and businesses were all too happy to oblige. Door-to-door delivery, digital payments, and online commerce were emerging trends of the early 2000s. A sushi restaurant emblazoned with certified sustainability accolades in 2000 would have been a non sequitur at best, and alienating at worst. One would be right to ask: What happened over the last 20 years?
But the better question is: What is happening now, and what will happen next?
Businesses have always, and will always, act primarily in their own interest. In the same manner, consumers have always, and will always, make purchases that reflect and support their own interests. Commerce lives at the intersection between the self-interests of these two groups, but itâs the consumer that really sets the rules of the relationship.
Al Gore can make all the movies he wants. Rising sea levels could have submerged the Eastern seaboard and companies still wouldnât launch environmentally friendly ad campaigns unless they had data showing that consumers actually care enough to buy environmentally friendly products. But when they do care, the opportunity is massive.
Drew Fraser, president and CEO of Method Products, attributes a healthy amount of his companyâs meteoric success to its environmentally friendly reputation. According to Fraser:
We want to make sure that these are hardworking heavy-duty cleaning products that also work in ways that are totally sustainable. So itâs not just efficacy, the manner in which the product is made and manufactured needs to be sustainable as well. And then style, we want to be a little lighter, a little more whimsical in a very serious category where thereâs not a lot of fun going on. So, bringing a little color, joy, shape, and design to our products was the way in which we combined fun and function with positive global impact.
. . . These are still small market shares in massive categories. So, thereâs just tons of upside for these products and brands to continue to scale.1
The signs weâre seeing nowâwhether theyâre splashed across the front page of The Wall Street Journal or covering the windows of an upcoming sushi restaurantâare not reflections of a change in corporate ethics. They are evidence of a change in consumer behavior. And itâs a big change. The signals are all around us.
We are getting closer to another red line: consumer disaffection.
SIGNAL ONE: THE ESG RENAISSANCE
Fortunately for all of us, the state of business is not something that requires guesswork. There are systems, reports, statistics, and tools at our disposal ready to help us diagnose, strategize, and act. When it comes to understanding economic forces, thereâs still no place like Wall Street.
Over the last few years, and in the last year especially, a certain slice of the market has received a notable amount of increased attention and enhanced relevance: ESG Investing. ESG stands for environmental, social, and governance. Together, E, S, and G comprise the investing worldâs best attempt to measure the impact of business practices that relate to the good of the planet, society at large, and how firms behave. As Harvard professor Vikram S. Gandhi explained recently: âImpact investments are investments with the intention to generate positive, measurable social and environmental impact alongside a financial return.â2
More specifically, when weâre talking about ESG we are talking about outcomes, specifically externalities. Currently, firms force negative externalities like polluted air or water, poor working conditions, and the like on society at large if those actions result in greater profit maximization. This is the classic behavior illustrated by âthe tragedy of the commonsââa situation in a shared-resource system where individual users, acting independently according to their own self-interest, behave contrary to the common good of all users by depleting or spoiling that resource through their collective action.
But now, investors have more options. They can easily invest in companies or funds that have a positive impact on all users by buying ESG funds, or by direc...