The Road to Zero Emissions

The Future of Trucks, Transport and Automotive Industry Supply Chains

Dennis Evans, Des Evans, Alistair Williamson

• Publisher: Kogan Page
• Year: 2020
• ISBN:
  9781789665611
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Technology & Engineering
• Subtopic: Automotive Transportation & Engineering
• Index: Technology & Engineering

The transport industry has an important role to play in addressing climate change and the environmental challenges facing governments, businesses and individuals. Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will require this sector, which is a large contributor of emissions, to innovate, adapt and drive positive change. New technologies including batteries and alternative fuels will all be significant, as will developing different approaches and outlooks. The Road to Zero Emissions is the comprehensive guide for those in the transport industry to understanding what can and is being done to tackle climate change. Through examining established companies and new entrants in the automotive space, readers are provided with examples of the importance of infrastructure, business innovation and financing for the future. In addition to this, the role of governments in establishing policies, such as zero-emission zones, is also discussed. Progressing towards zero emissions requires immediate change and this book will start you on the journey.

01

The road to zero emissions

This chapter will familiarize the reader with:

• The threat posed by ‘global warming’ and climate change.
• Environmental traffic zones.
• Development of urban consolidation centres/last-mile ‘freight-ports’.
• The potential impact of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on future oil demand.
• The challenge to save 200,000 auto industry jobs.
• Rare earth materials (REMs) and their importance in the development of battery technology.

The threat of global warming and climate change

The threat of global warming and climate change has dominated the geopolitical landscape since 1988 when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed through combined work from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) (IPCC, 2020).

The goal of the IPCC is to provide the world with a clear state of knowledge on climate change and its potential environmental and social-economic impacts (IPCC, 2020).

Building on the work of the IPCC, the United Nations established a UN Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC). Annually, the UNFCCC organizes a world conference named Climate of the Parties (COP). The Kyoto Protocol was agreed in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 at COP3. COP21 took place in 2015 in Paris; negotiations at COP21 led to the Paris Agreement.

The central aim of the Paris Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and limit the rise in global average temperature to below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels. There is also an overarching ‘stretch target’ to limit the rise to 1.5ºC (Lynn and Zabula, 2016).

Representatives from 196 countries attended the conference and as of 2019, 196 states plus the European Union have signed the Paris Agreement. A further 183 nations and the European Union have ratified the agreement.

Those in ‘climate change denial’, who are challenging the science, are out to derail the goals of the Paris Agreement. This has put the spotlight on differences between the G8 and G20 alliances on how to regulate the environmental and commercial markets that will impact how the transition from a fossil fuel economy plays out going forward.

First and foremost, human-caused emissions – like those from fossil-fuelled vehicles and factories – should be reduced to as close to zero as possible, and transitioning to emissions-free transport such as electric or hydrogen cars and trucks is currently high on the agenda of all of the developed economies.

Any remaining GHGs would be balanced with an equivalent amount of carbon removal, for example by restoring forests or through direct air capture and storage (DACS) technology. Carbon capture and storage is considered a longer-term and very expensive and capital-intensive solution, and is currently an option pursued by many oil and gas company organizations as their contribution to the climate challenge while wishing to continue investments in fossil fuel and gas production.

The concept of net-zero emissions is akin to ‘climate neutrality’ (Levin and Davis, 2019).

There are two main variables that control global energy consumption (three counting price): the total number of people in the world and the average per capita energy each person consumes (Figure 1.1). While per capita energy consumption is falling throughout much of the OECD, it is rising everywhere else as countries like China, India and Brazil strive to become like ‘us’ (Energy Matters, 2018).

The world’s population (currently 7.6 billion) is expected to reach 8.6 billion by 2030, 9.8 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100, according to a United Nations report (United Nations, 2017).

At the same time, BP and UN data points to global mean per capita energy consumption growing to 2.63 tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) per annum by 2100. That is a further increase of 47 per cent over the 2015 figure (Energy Matters, 2018).

Figure 1.1 World per capita energy consumption

SOURCE Energy Matters, 2018

Figure 1.1 details

The details of the graph are as follows:

The x-axis shows the year from 1960 to 2100 in increments of 20. The y-axis shows the per capita energy consumption in tonne of oil equivalent from 0.0 to 3.0 in increments of 0.5. The graph shows that the actual energy consumption around 1965 was 1.15 which increased to 1.55 around 1980. It dropped again and then increased to 1.6 around 2018. Thereon it is predicted to increase to 2.65 by 2100.

GHGs unchecked in a ‘business as usual’ scenario will mean that the 1.5ºC target agreed in the Paris Agreement cannot be met. Mitigation techniques and interventions are therefore required to contain the projected growth in GHGs as a consequence of the forecast increase in world population and world per capita energy consumption (Energy Matters, 2018).

Figure 1.2 How to get to net-zero emissions by 2100

SOURCE Levin and Davis, 2019

Figure 1.2 details

The details of the graph are as follows:

The x-axis shows the year from 2010 to 2100 in increments of 10. The y-axis shows the GHG emissions. The graph shows that with business conducted as usual, the GHG emissions will increase a little from 2010. Conventional mitigation techniques like solar panels, CFL bulbs and wind mills will reduce it by 65 percent. Carbon removal technologies like planting more trees will lower GHG emissions by 25 percent.

The World Resources Institute (WRI) suggests that to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals, the world will need to reach net-zero emissions on the following timelines (Levin and Davis, 2019):

• In scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C, carbon dioxide (CO₂) reaches net-zero on average by 2050 (in scenarios with low or no overshoot) to 2052 (in scenarios that have high overshoot, in which temperature rise surpasses 1.5°C for some time before being brought down). Total GHG emissions reach net-zero between 2063 and 2068.
• In 2°C scenarios, CO₂ reaches net-zero on average by 2070 (in scenarios with a greater than 66 per cent likelihood of limiting warming to 2°C) to 2085 (50–66 per cent likelihood). Total GHG emissions reach net-zero by 2100.

Figure 1.3 Global timeline to meet net-zero emissions

SOURCE Levin and Davis, 2019

Figure 1.3 details

The timeline shows the following:

• 2020s: Limiting global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius entails
• 2030s: Limiting global warming to 2.0 degree Celsius entails
• End of 2040s: Net zero Carbon dioxide
• Mid-2060s to mid-2070s: Net zero GHG
• Mid-2070s to end of 2080: Net zero Carbon dioxide
• Mid-2080s to mid-2090s: Net zero GHG

The WRI forecasts (Figures 1.2 and 1.3) are for a global overview of possible outcomes over the next 50–100 years, up to 2100. Each individual country will have different targets and timescales (Levin and Davis, 2019).

Government action in the EU has seen the recent introduction of radical regulations. These regulations will create zero-emission and clean air zones in major cities and penalize products that fail to comply with environmental permits for access to urban environments.

The UK has implemented a robust ‘industrial clean air strategy’, which focuses on the goal of clean air through product compliance. The development of alternative energies, the electrification of transport and the critical issue of infrastructure development will require the government to seriously consider balan...