Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions

Samrat Chatterjee, Robert T. Brigantic, Angela M. Waterworth, Samrat Chatterjee, Robert T. Brigantic, Angela M. Waterworth

• Publisher: Wiley
• Year: 2021
• Print ISBN:
  9781119287469
• Edition: 1
• eBook ISBN:
  9781119287483
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Terrorism
• Index: Politics & International Relations

Presents various challenges faced by security policy makers and risk analysts, and mathematical approaches that inform homeland security policy development and decision support

Compiled by a group of highly qualified editors, this book provides a clear connection between risk science and homeland security policy making and includes top-notch contributions that uniquely highlight the role of risk analysis for informing homeland security policy decisions. Featuring discussions on various challenges faced in homeland security risk analysis, the book seamlessly divides the subject of risk analysis for homeland security into manageable chapters, which are organized by the concept of risk-informed decisions, methodology for applying risk analysis, and relevant examples and case studies. 

Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions offers an enlightening overview of risk analysis methods for homeland security. For instance, it presents readers with an exploration of radiological and nuclear risk assessment, along with analysis of uncertainties in radiological and nuclear pathways. It covers the advances in risk analysis for border security, as well as for cyber security. Other topics covered include: strengthening points of entry; systems modeling for rapid containment and casualty mitigation; and disaster preparedness and critical infrastructure resilience.

• Highlights how risk analysis helps in the decision-making process for homeland security policy
• Presents specific examples that detail how various risk analysis methods provide decision support for homeland security policy makers and risk analysts
• Describes numerous case studies from academic, government, and industrial perspectives that apply risk analysis methods for addressing challenges within the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
• Offers detailed information regarding each of the five DHS missions: prevent terrorism and enhance security; secure and manage our borders; enforce and administer our immigration laws; safeguard and secure cyberspace; and strengthen national preparedness and resilience
• Discusses the various approaches and challenges faced in homeland risk analysis and identifies improvements and methodological advances that influenced DHS to adopt an increasingly risk-informed basis for decision-making
• Written by top educators and professionals who clearly illustrate the link between risk science and homeland security policy making 

Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions is an excellent textbook and/or supplement for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses related to homeland security risk analysis. It will also be an extremely beneficial resource and reference for homeland security policy analysts, risk analysts, and policymakers from private and public sectors, as well as researchers, academics, and practitioners who utilize security risk analysis methods.

Part I
Managing National Security Risk and Policy Programs

1
On the “Influence of Scenarios to Priorities” in Risk and Security Programs

Heimir Thorisson and James H. Lambert

Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA

1.1 Introduction

Organizations are challenged by an uncertain and evolving future of technological, social, economic, security, and environmental factors, all in the direction of resilient, sustainable, and robust systems. Multiple shared or conflicting aims of various stakeholders, whose individual “stakes” can range from large to small, which change over time, must be taken into consideration in a negotiation of current and future priorities. The science and engineering community has an important role in providing research, methods, and tools to aid in the development of metrics, models, solutions, and methods that prioritize among candidate solutions and procedures for tracking/monitoring of progress. Furthermore, risk analysis has had a role in identifying current and future risk scenarios of which the system might be exposed and understanding the impacts of these scenarios. In a world of varying societal and governance conditions, terrorism, cyber-attacks, extreme weather events, and other “deep” uncertainties without reliable knowledge of probability and severity call for special consideration.

Scenario-based preferences (Connelly et al. 2015; Hamilton et al. 2013; Karvetski and Lambert 2012; Karvetski et al. 2009; Thorisson et al. 2017) are a family of methods that focus on the influence of combinations of different emergent and future conditions, or scenarios, on the priorities of an organization such as a government agency, division, or a specific program. The priorities of an organization are for policies, technologies, geographic locations, infrastructure investments, and other initiatives. A result of the approach is to quantify the influence of the different scenarios to the prioritization of initiatives, compared to a baseline, and to identify initiatives that are consistently prioritized as high and initiatives that importance is sensitive to different scenarios. Therefore, the approach supports the selection of a resilient portfolio of initiatives and helps anticipate potential effects of a changed decision context.

Risk analysis and management practices at an organization should be carefully planned and structured. Many organizations and experts in academia and industry have developed frameworks for performing risk management. Furthermore, some have considered how to guide the establishment of such practices that meet the specific needs of the entity in question while conforming to higher level organizational objectives and missions. This chapter introduces a canonical formulation for developing a risk program, the interdependent risk assessment, management, and communication activities within an organizational unit. The formulation takes the form of three questions, each applying to a phase of developing a risk program: scope definition, operational design, and monitoring and evaluation. The chapter describes how risk and security programs address risk as the “influence of scenarios to priorities,” as proposed by Lambert et al. (2013a, b).

The organization of the chapter is as follows: first, several guidelines for developing risk programs are reviewed, and the canonical formulation is introduced and discussed. Second, the scenario-based preference model is described, and third, the methods are demonstrated through a case study of a risk-centric electric power capacity expansion plan evaluation.

1.2 Risk Programs

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) defines the core missions of the organization as (i) preventing terrorism, (ii) securing and managing borders, (iii) enforcing and administering immigration laws, (iv) safeguarding and securing cyberspace, and (v) ensuring resilience to disasters (US Department of Homeland Security 2016). It constitutes agencies, offices, advisory groups, and other components that while serving these core missions have different responsibilities, emphases, and priorities. In the context of risk analysis, this means that different approaches have been developed to serve the needs of the different components. A 2010 report (Committee to Review the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk and Analysis 2010) provides an overview of risk analysis at the DHS. The report identifies a large number of projects, initiatives, standards, assessments, models, frameworks, and more, related to the assessment, management, and communication of risks. Some are independent activities with a specific purpose, while others may be part of a larger-scale risk analysis effort. To be consistent in the description of met...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Table of Contents
• Title Page
• Copyright
• Dedication
• About the Editors
• List of Contributors
• Preface
• Chapter Abstracts
• Part I: Managing National Security Risk and Policy Programs
• Part II: Strengthening Ports of Entry
• Part III: Securing Critical Cyber Assets
• Part IV: Enhancing Disaster Preparedness and Infrastructure Resilience
• Index
• End User License Agreement