Fashion Trends

Analysis and Forecasting

Eundeok Kim, Ann Marie Fiore, Alice Payne, Hyejeong Kim

• Publisher: Bloomsbury Visual Arts
• Year: 2021
• ISBN:
  9781350099029
• Edition: 2
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Fashion & Textile Industry
• Index: Business

In a fast-moving global industry, how can anyone know what the next trend will be? Fashion Trends: Analysis and Forecasting offers a clear pathway into the theory and practice of forecasting fashion, using professional case studies to demonstrate each technique and concept. This revised edition includes an updated model of the fashion trend analysis and forecasting process and expanded coverage of social media, digital influencers, sustainability and social responsibility. There are also first-hand visual materials relating to forecasts from leading firms. With the rise of individualism and concern for the sustainable world, the authors also walk you through the 'end of fashion' and what comes next, including: recycled and upcycled fashion, garment rental, subscription services, the circular economy, transparency and traceability, and the role of forecasting in encouraging sustainable lifestyles. Key topics
– The characteristics of an innovation
– The influence of consumer groups
– Long- and short-term fashion forecasting
– Sociocultural factors and their influence on trends
– Fashion professionals' roles in creating and supporting trends
– Consumer and industry trends accelerating product innovation and diffusion
– Changing trend forecasting formats
– The influence of trend forecasting on business decisions

CHAPTER 1

THE BASICS OF FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

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Objectives

•Define important terms related to fashion trends and forecasting

•Analyze fashion trends and influences in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries

•Explain the tempo of fashion change and the direction of fashion change

•Discuss the concepts of fashion trend analysis and forecasting

Introduction to Fashion Trend Terminology

One cannot look at fashion magazines, websites, social media feeds, or blogs without seeing the “trends,” “key trends for the season,” “fashion and color trends,” or “makeup trends.” The term “trend” is often used interchangeably with “fashion” when the writer is referring to fashion-forward items. The term “fashion” is also confused with the term style because some writers use “fashionable” and “stylish” interchangeably. The term “style” is also confused with design. What exactly is a trend, fashion, style, or design? What are the differences among these terms? The first step in understanding fashion trends is to define these terms.

Trend, style, design, and fashion

A “trend” refers to a general direction or movement (Stone, 2008). For example, if you see in fashion magazines that “there is a trend toward faux furs,” it means that upscale designers have shown faux fur coats or details on the runway, apparel retailers have started to introduce them in their catalogs or stores, and some fashion-forward consumers are wearing faux fur items.

Designers usually start conceptualizing products for a new season one year prior to the actual selling season. Therefore, for apparel retailers, knowing what customers will want to wear next season is much more than just helpful information—it is requisite for success. When apparel retailers recognize fashion trends and develop their merchandise on the basis of that information, they increase the probability that consumers will accept merchandise when it arrives in stores. Trends are not limited to apparel, accessories, and cosmetics; they can be found in various other consumer products, including home décor, furniture, automobiles, and electronics. Therefore, a trend toward purple is important information not only for apparel retailers but also for the cosmetics and electronics (e.g., computers) industries. Designers and other professionals in the fashion and creative industries access trend information through trend-forecasting companies, which are discussed in detail in Chapter 4.

A “style,” broadly speaking, is “a characteristic mode of presentation that typifies several similar objects of the same category or class” (Sproles & Burns, 1994, p. 7). Styles exist not only in apparel but also in architecture, painting, music, and politics. We often speak of “punk,” “hippie,” “Empire,” or “Baroque” styles. Some celebrities, such as Lady Gaga, Madonna, and Elvis Presley, created their own distinctive styles. Although we recognize these styles, it does not necessarily mean that the styles are adopted by a large group of people. We can identify the Lady Gaga style, but how many of us have actually tried it? When the term is used in apparel, a style refers to distinctive characteristics within a specific category (Sproles & Burns, 1994). For instance, in the skirt category, there are several styles, including miniskirts, pencil skirts, A-line skirts, and pleated skirts.

“Design” is “a unique combination of silhouette, construction, fabric, and details that distinguishes a single fashion object from all other objects of the same category or classes” (Sproles & Burns, 1994, p. 6). Within each style, there can be numerous designs, but they share common design components, which distinguish the style from other styles. For example, the hippie style shares design components, such as fringed hems, bell-bottom silhouettes, tie-dyed surfaces, and embroidery, and these design components may be used in a diverse array of products including apparel and homewares. In the apparel context, a hoodie is a style, and brands such as Juicy Couture and Adidas offer various hoodie designs, differentiated through various embroidery patterns, fabrics (e.g., velour or French terry), or trims (e.g., stripe, chain, or ruffle).

While a style may not be widely accepted by people, a “fashion” is “a style of consumer product or way of behaving that is temporarily adopted by a discernible proportion of members of a social group because that chosen style or behavior is perceived to be socially appropriate for the time and situation” (Sproles & Burns, 1994, p. 4). Of course, the term “fashion” is often associated with apparel, but there can be fashions in other consumer product categories, as well as in ideas and behaviors. Examples of fashions in hairstyles include Jennifer Aniston’s “Rachel” cut in the 1990s, which more than 11 million women tried, or the natural hair movement in the 2010s. There are even fashions in speech patterns. Examples in the US are the “uptalking” and “likes” associated with Valley girls since the 1990s, or the trend towards a crackly sound in young women’s voices, known as “vocal fry” (Wolf, 2015). An example of fashion in behavior is the use of Facebook and the widespread acceptance of social networking services (SNS) over the past fifteen years. Since its launch in 2004, Facebook’s use spread rapidly, first among college students, and is now used all around the world. Having a Facebook account is widely accepted, and logging onto Facebook or its sister-platform Instagram is an everyday ritual for many people, young and old.

Fashions are temporal by nature—no fashion is everlasting. In apparel styles, boot-cut jeans were popular and prevalent during the early 2000s, but skinny jeans emerged as a new fashion in the mid-2000s, followed by high-waisted straight-leg styles in the 2010s. Some styles may become popular because they are considered to be appropriate in particular social situations. Pantsuits are popular because they are suitable for job interviews. Some styles may be accepted as a result of social pressure; people are influenced by each other and often adopt certain styles to meet the expectations of a person or group or to show their group membership or conformity (Solomon & Rabolt, 2009). Think about how many times you bought a new apparel style to fit into a group.

Fashions can be categorized based on the group to which they appeal. High fashion consists of a new style accepted by a limited number of innovators or leaders who want to be the first to adopt new products. High-fashion styles tend to be available in small quantities and sold at relatively high prices. Unlike high fashion, mass fashion, or volume fashion, refers to styles that are widely accepted by a large group of fashion-conscious consumers and that are produced and sold in large quantities at moderate to low prices. Mass fashion accounts for the majority of sales in the fashion business (Stone, 2008).

Fashion, fad, and classic styles

As shown in Figure 1.1, styles vary in terms of their rates of acceptance and duration. This means that styles have different life cycles. A fashion style is accepted and diffused among people at a moderate rate; it is slowly accepted in the beginning, rapidly rises, reach its peak, and gradually declines. A fashion style remains popular for quite a long time, having widespread acceptance among consumers. For instance, wide-shouldered jackets emerged in the mid-1980s and were popular until the mid-1990s. This style then declined, with shoulder pads becoming gradually smaller.

A fad is a short-lived style. Unlike a fashion style, it becomes popular very rapidly, reaching its peak quickly, and then suddenly dies out. It tends to obtain limited rather than substantial adoption and may be accepted only in certain social and subcultural groups (Sproles & Burns, 1994). As an example, miniskirts with leggings and wide belts were popular in the mid-2000s for a short period of time among younger consumers. A fad may be revolutionary or extreme in design compared to other existing styles (Sproles & Burns, 1994). Crocs, originally developed as a spa shoe, became a fad because of its unique, comfortable design, and kiosks selling the merchandise appeared in most major shopping malls. However, the popularity did not last very long. You may also recognize past fads, such as zoot suits, poodle skirts, wide bell-bottom pants, platform shoes, tie-dye T-shirts, leisure suits, jelly shoes, Mohawk haircuts, and beanies.

Classic styles may be adopted at a slow rate in the beginning, but the telltale sign of a classic is its staying power. Classics are widely accepted and stay in fashion for an extended period of time, with some slight variation in detail. Examples are Levi’s “501” jeans, trench coats, button-down shirts, polo shirts, Chanel suits, turtleneck sweaters, blazers, pearl necklaces, and penny loafers. Think about the trench coat—it has been in fashion for years, undergoing slight variations such as changes in the size of shoulder pads or lengths, but, even with these changes, it is easily discernable as a trench coat. These styles are often basic and simple in design and, therefore, are likely to be accepted by various social groups.

Figure 1.1 Fad, fashion, and classic styles have different rates and durations of acceptance.

Source: Adapted from Brannon, E. L. (2010). Fashion forecasting (3rd ed.). New York: Fairchild Books, p. 7.

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