Asian Water Development Outlook 2020

Advancing Water Security across Asia and the Pacific

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• Publisher: Asian Development Bank
• Year: 2020
• Print ISBN: 9789292626167
• eBook ISBN: 9789292626174
• Topic: Technology & Engineering
• Subtopic: Environmental Management
• Index: Technology & Engineering

The Asian Water Development Outlook (AWDO) 2020 assesses national water security across Asia and the Pacific, focusing on five key dimensions: rural, economic, urban, environmental, and water-related disaster. Despite considerable achievements in Asia and the Pacific since the AWDO 2013 edition, 1.5 billion people in rural areas and 0.6 billion in urban areas still lack adequate water supply and sanitation. Sound water management and access to reliable service delivery remain vital to inclusive economic growth and social well-being, especially after the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. This edition includes two new sections highlighting the importance of finance and governance to water security as well as case studies demonstrating how the AWDO has influenced policy development in four countries.

PART II
Water Security across Five Key Dimensions

National Water Security Index

Key Dimension 1: Rural Household Water Security

Key Dimension 2: Economic Water Security

Key Dimension 3: Urban Water Security

Key Dimension 4: Environmental Water Security

Key Dimension 5: Water-Related Disaster Security

Improving Water Security and Key Dimension Performance by Good Governance

Financing Needs for Improving Key Dimension Performance

AWDO 2020 builds on the work of AWDO 2013 and AWDO 2016 in analyzing Asia and the Pacific’s water security. It has refined the underlying methodologies to quantify the five KDs and used the most recent data.¹⁷ The following sections present the water security status of 49 ADB members in Asia and the Pacific, discussing the results and policy recommendations on increasing water security. The actual data (scores) by economy are in Appendixes 1–7. Appendix 1 provides an overview of the five KDs and the NWSI by economy. Appendix 2 presents the results by region, including regional average scores. Appendixes 3–7 show the scores for KDs 1–5. Appendix 8 provides the databases used to derive the scores.

The actual data years of the parameters considered in AWDO differ. For some parameters, recent data were used; for others, only data of earlier years were available. As a rule of thumb, one might consider that AWDO 2020 describes the situation in 2018, AWDO 2016 in 2014, and AWDO 2013 (due to a long publishing process) in 2009. Thus, comparing AWDO 2020 with AWDO 2016 and AWDO 2013 shows the progress made across 4–5-year span.

In describing the performance of water security KDs, ADB analyzes the relationship between water security and the gross national income (GNI) per capita. Does a country have to be rich to achieve higher water security? Or does higher water security contribute to more welfare? Graphs in the following section show the relationships between the two.

National Water Security Index

National Water Security Index: All Key Dimensions

The five KDs form the NWSI. Appendix 1 provides the scores of the five KDs for all 49 ADB members. The maximum score for each KD is 20. The maximum score for NWSI, the sum of the five KDs, is 100. The range in scores is enormous—from 39.5 (Afghanistan) to 89.1 (New Zealand)—as illustrated in Figure 2, in which ADB members are sorted based on their NWSI. The range is rather continuous. No clear groups can be identified. A low score does not mean that no progress is made (Box 1), also illustrated in the case of Afghanistan in Box 2 and of India in Box 3.

Figure 2: National Water Security Scores

Source: Asian Development Bank.

Box 1: Scores and Progress Are Different Things

A low position on the score list does not mean that no progress is made in water security. For example, Afghanistan, although at the bottom of the list, has made significant progress during 2013–2020 in rural and urban water security (KD1 and KD3). At the same time, New Zealand, at the top of the list, saw their urban water security decrease over that same period. Another top country, Australia, saw their overall national water security decrease between 2016 and 2020.

KD = key dimension, KD1 = rural household water security, KD3 = urban water security.

Source: Asian Development Bank.

Figure 3 shows the scores of the five KDs in Asia and the Pacific for 2013, 2016, and 2020. These scores are population-weighted averages in the region, excluding the Advanced Economies. Good progress is seen between 2013 and 2020, particularly for KD1, KD2, and KD5.

Figure 3: Average Scores of Key Dimensions in Asia and the Pacific, 2013-2020

KD = key dimension.

Source: Asian Development Bank.

National Water Security Stages

A similar positive development is seen if the NWS is expressed in terms of the five NWS stages, as defined in Table 2: nascent, engaged, capable, effective, and model.

The left part of Figure 4 illustrates that 22 of 49 ADB members are still in the nascent and engaged stages in AWDO 2020. The development over time is promising, showing that ADB members move from nascent to engaged, and from engaged to capable and effective. No country has reached the model level yet, not even the Advanced Economies.

Figure 4: Number of ADB Members and People in Five National Water Security Stages

Source: Asian Development Bank.

The right side of Figure 4 shows the population of ADB members in these development levels.

National Water Security across the Regions

Figure 5 presents the population-weighted averages of NWS by region.¹⁸ The regional average for 2020 does not include the Advanced Economies. The population-weighted score of the Advanced Economies in AWDO 2020 is 86.5, the Pacific only 45.4, and South Asia 47.7. East Asia shows a promising score of 72.8, mainly due to the combined high scores of Taipei,China (80.8) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (72.7). The figure shows that progress has been made in all regions between 2013 and 2020.

Figure 5: National Water Security by Region

Source: Asian Development Bank.

Risks to Future National Water Security

Political will is needed toward improving governance to continue the progress in NWS, which involves maintaining assets and making necessary investments.

ADB members in the region have to be prepared to deal with potential risks. AWDO 2020 takes into account the multidimensional nature of risk, encompassing physical risks (e.g., water-related disasters, climate change, ecological and health risks); institutional and regulatory risks (e.g., change of policy and regulatory frameworks, shifts in markets, norms, and technologies); and financial risks (e.g., infrastructure and operation and maintenance costs), along with their associated negative socioeconomic impacts on people’s assets and livelihoods. The main risk elements to be considered in water security are the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the long-term effects of climate change.

The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a major short- and medium-term risk for water security, with direct risks to health, morbidity, and mortality and to the continuity and quality of water service provision due to human resources and supply chain interruptions. Indirect risks are the reduced financial resources for capital expansion and maintenance of infrastructure with secondary impacts on livelihoods and well-being, including increased poverty, malnutrition from reduced household income, and reduced educational achievement of children due to school closures, with possible long-term impacts on their adult lives. Another way to look at these risks is that improving water security (KD1 and KD3) will facilitate improved hygiene practices to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.

Climate change is expected to impact all water security KDs, with changing rainfall and runoff patterns impacting water availability to meet water demand, affecting rural household water security (KD1), economic water security (KD2), and urban water security (KD3). Aquatic ecosystems, and thus environmental water security (KD4), are predicted to face escalating negative impacts on many levels. More intense rainfall and typhoons, sea level rise, and more extreme droughts will affect water-related disaster security (KD5).

Addressing these risks might imply that trade-offs are needed between the KDs, e.g., more water storage to adapt to climate change will support KD2 but might negatively influence KD4. The necessary governance action to address these tradeoffs is explained in the section on Improving Water Security and Key Dimension Performance by Good Governance. More specific risk elements across the five KDs are described under each of these KDs.

National Water Security and Gross National Income

The relation between the NWS of ADB members and their gross national income (GNI) per capita is shown in Figure 6. The GNI is plotted at a logarithmic scale. As expected, the figure shows a strong correlation between the two parameters. Particularly interesting are the ADB members that score positively in relation to the regression line and those that find themselves below the line. The Kyrgyz Republic performs very well considering its GNI and, to a lesser extent, so do Uzbekistan, the Philippines, and Armenia. On the other side of the spectrum, Papua New Guinea is clearly lagging, followed by Pakistan, India, and Maldives. Thailand also scores surprisingly low. As mentioned, a low score does not mean that no progress is made as illustrated for Afghanistan (Box 2) and India (Box 3).

Figure 6: National Water Security and Gross National Income per Capita, 2020

GNI = gross national income, Lao PDR = Lao People’s Democratic Republic, PRC = People’s Republic of China.

Note: Small Pacific island states are not included.

Source: Asian Development Bank.

Box 2: Major Water Security Progress in Afghanistan

Despite major progress made in Afghanistan since 2013, the country remains at the nascent stage in the Asian Development Outlook (AWDO) 2020 mainly because of its fragile and conflict-affected situation over the last 4 decades, which has resulted in degraded infrastructure, limited human resources capacities, and a lack of institutional establishment. Progress has been achieved through strong partnerships between the Government of Afghanistan, community leaders, and international development partners. This progress includes rehabilitating and upgrading irrigation schemes, improving hydrometeorological and hydrogeological networks, implementing national dam safety guidelines and manuals, preparing water sector development strategies and master plans, developing new water regulatory law and several bylaws, and establishing the National Water Affairs Regulation Authority (the government body responsible for water resources management) in 2020. These accomplishments have already contributed to an increase in agricultural yield and farm household income. Crop productivity has increased by at least 20% for major crops in rehabilitated schemes. Further improvements in all five key dimensions (KDs) of water security are the government’s overarching priorities.

Source: Asian Development Bank.

Box 3: Working toward Higher Water Security in India

Recognizing the importance of water security for the country’s socioeconomic development, the Government of India along with state governments have embarked on several extensive investment programs in the water sector...

Table of contents

• Front Cover
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Contents
• Tables, Figures, and Boxes
• Forewords
• Messages
• Acknowledgments
• Abbreviations
• Executive Summary
• I. Introduction
• II. Water Security across Five Key Dimensions
• III. AWDO 2020 Policy Recommendations and ADB Water Strategic Directions 2030: A Water-Secure and Resilient Asia and the Pacific
• IV. AWDO and Policy in Action
• V. Appendixes
• Footnotes
• Back Cover