Future Transport Policy

K. J. Button, D. Gillingwater

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2021
• ISBN:
  9781000361544
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Technik & Maschinenbau
• Subtopic: Transport & Navigation

Originally published in 1986, this book remains as relevant today as when it was first published, as it discusses issues in transport policy that are still being debated: what levels of subsidies should be applied; what form of ownership should prevail; how transport should be regulated or deregulated; and which modes of transport should be favoured. The book examines how policies have evolved, and what factors affect present decision making. It includes contentious areas such as international airline deregulation and urban transport.

1 Introduction

The Idea

Transport is important in everyone’s life. It provides the opportunity of enjoying a wide range of recreational and leisure activities as well as opening up a large number of employment options. For productive enterprises it provides the means of bringing together the various inputs required by modern industry and to distribute their outputs to their customers. It is also important in other senses, however, not directly related to people’s movements or the transportation of goods. Transport is visible, noisy and dangerous; it takes up huge quantities of resources which must be diverted from elsewhere and it requires the existence of a large bureaucracy and administration to ensure its efficient running. Transport, also of course, is a major industry in itself providing employment for millions of people throughout the world.

Given its importance, its scope and the diverse ways in which transport both directly and indirectly affects our lifestyle, it is hardly surprising that a considerable academic and popular literature has grown up on the subject. (The latter has partly been stimulated by the considerable fascination that some modes of transport seem to hold for certain people — a fact which is difficult to refute given the number of train-spotters to be found squatting at the end of station platforms.) In particular, numerous books on transport economics and on transport planning have appeared in recent years — e.g., and this is just a small selection from the UK, Bell, Blackledge and Bowen (1983), Glaister (1981), Button (1982), Stubbs, Tyson and Dalvi (1980). These vary in their approach and each offers a different view of the contemporary problems encountered by decision-makers involved with transport provision. Equally, they differ in their attitudes towards what motivates the users of transport services. Most of these volumes provide a thorough and up-to-date discussion of the relevant economic or planning techniques, albeit with varying degrees of rigour, and generally they contain a substantial amount of factual information and institutional detail. As complements to these texts, more detailed works have been published offering histories or assessments of policies applied with respect to individual transport modes (e.g. Nash (1982) on public transport and Starkie (1982) on motorways), undertakings or geographical areas (e.g. Barker (1974) and Collins and Pharoah (1974) on transport in London). Finally, a wide range of specialist journals have appeared which offer both a pot pourri of recent research findings and commentary and comment on developments in the transport sector.

These books, journals and periodicals, however, seldom provide anything approaching an overall assessment of transport policy. This does not mean that policy is ignored but rather that its discussion tends to be either mode specific, or, in more general volumes and textbooks, tagged on at the end of discussions of technique and theory. This book, in contrast, is concerned exclusively with transport policy. It makes no claims to be comprehensive but it does offer material which will partially fill this particular gap in the literature.

A discussion of transport policy and, in particular, some effort to predict the future patterns which policy is likely to take seems particularly apposite in the mid-1980s. Until a decade ago there had been a considerable degree of agreement over the general nature — if not always in the detail — transport policy should take and the objectives which were to be aimed for. The continuous economic expansion of the post-Second World War period and the acceleration of the growth of the consumer society in the 1960s induced a feeling of confidence and certainty about the future. Essentially, if there were problems associated with transport then society would soon ‘buy’ its way out of them as ever increasing amounts of resources became available and technical progress opened new horizons. There was also confidence that evolving techniques of economic control would provide a mechanism for evaluating and achieving macro- and micro-economic objectives. (The emphasis in the literature on technique and methodology is, therefore, understandable.) The situation has changed quite dramatically since that time.

The energy crises of the 1970s are often pointed to as major watersheds but, in fact, they represented only one element of the forces which caused the confidence of the 1960s to evaporate. Environmentalists were already at the time of the 1973 crisis pointing to increased problems generated by the widespread use of the petrol engine and to the broader aesthetic intrusions which were taking place and against which rising incomes were offering no protection. Third World countries, in complete contrast, were experiencing explosions in the sizes of their populations, and severe shortages of adequate transport facilities were becoming apparent. Changes in the nature of industry and the way people live have further contributed to the reassessments of transport policy which have emerged. Manufacturing industry in the developed world has changed in its composition, the service sector has increased in its significance while, more generally, there have been surges in urbanisation in the Third World and geographical spreading of cities in Western Europe and North America. The policies which had been assumed appropriate to adopt in the transport sector for the previous half-century suddenly became the focal point for fundamental criticism in the 1970s and 1980s.

Of course, transport policy is itself influenced by broader movements in overall political attitudes and economic and social policies. Again the past decade has witnessed quite marked shifts in political attitudes in many Western countries which have in turn caused people to rethink the approach which should be applied in the transport sector.

This book is concerned with examining both the influences which have stimulated recent policy changes as well as in describing the nature of the policy changes themselves. We are also rather more ambitious than this and attempt to extrapolate from the current situation into the mid-1990s. This may seem a rather speculative activity but, in fact, the task does not require quite as many assumptions and guesses as one might imagine. The future is not isolated from the present, nor, indeed, from the past, but represents an extension of it. This must be the case, as much for physical reasons as for any reasons of argument or of the automatic continuity of ideas. Transport is only possible because of the availability of a massive and sophisticated network of track and terminals — infrastructure which in some cases, such as ports and roads, has its roots sunk deep in history. Marginal changes are continually being made to this system but the resources required to replace it entirely are simply not available and nor are they likely to be in the foreseeable future. It must, therefore, be viewed as almost a constant in the equation of policy-making.

Even if one could sensibly consider completely replacing the infrastructure of transport, future policy is still likely to be heavily influenced by the past. Previous and existing policies are frequently retained for specific modes or to meet specified conditions quite simply because they are effective and are likely to be seen as eminently sensible over quite long periods. Other policies must continue because of commitments already made which are not easily removed. It is, of course, interesting and helpful to see why such policies come about — it offers clues as to the mechanisms of policy-making — but for predictive purposes the policies themselves are essentially fixed. Equally, other policies have been abandoned or modified to varying degrees in the past and the experiences of these changes, be they because the policies were ineffective or found to be politically divisive, are likely to make policy-makers think very carefully about whether it is wise to reintroduce them in the future. The past, therefore, provides lessons, and these are more often taken on board by future generations of decision-makers than is sometimes thought. If they are not, then antagonists may draw upon them for ammunition to aid their cause. Equally, an examination of policies which were considered but ultimately rejected in the past can offer helpful insights into policy-makers’ implicit value judgements and goals. It can also provide guidelines as to where the real power lay in the decision-making process.

The Approach

One can approach public policy from a number of different directions and via several methods of analysis. The approach here is one of historical development, drawing more upon the insights of recent history and upon a careful extrapolation of influences to develop a picture of how transport policy is likely to change over the next decade or so. The time horizon is short, it certainly becomes difficult, even allowing for our earlier comments, to think much beyond ten years’ time with technology advancing on so many fronts. (Who would have perceived the current scale of microcomputer use only a decade ago?) Essentially, therefore, we limit ourselves to considering how policy will develop with respect to a world employing more or less the same type of transport hardware that is available today. Where we do attempt to go beyond this, the suggestions and views are extremely speculative.

Our main preoccupation with the UK and US situations is both the result of needing a focal point for illustration and comparison and a reflection of our own backgrounds and expertise. These countries do, however, also provide good examples of policy development amongst the industrial nations but where other industrialised countries have different problems and pursue different priorities these are brought out. Equally, Third World countries often differ quite radically in their circumstances and these are reviewed. The conclusions reached, therefore, tend to be of a universal nature with due account taken where appropriate of national institutions and philosophies.

In a sense, of course, we are making some implicit assumptions about the distant future in discussing the way policy may develop into the 1990s. The longevity of transport infrastructure inevitably means that policy-makers themselves must have some picture of the developments likely to take place as we move into the next century and, certainly, they must take cognisance of the fact that changes will occur which may influence the long term viability of their ongoing investments. This longer term view on the part of policy-makers can be deceptive, however, and while it certainly exists most decisions involve either an implicit or explicit discount procedure which puts the emphasis on the near rather than distant future. Nevertheless, there is some evidence that policy makers are becoming increasingly concerned about wasting current resources by investing in technologies that may become obsolete very quickly. There is certainly more concern today to ensure that a high degree of flexibility is introduced into the policy-making process (i.e. programme planning) and into the design of the infrastructure provided (i.e. scope for extending its capacity at a relatively low cost). Some allowance has been taken of this in our thinking.

Our approach to transport is also thematic and deliberately avoids specific modal studies as much as possible. Transport is one of those rare instances where inputs are often used to delineate the sector — e.g. the bus industry. This is rather odd. Most industries are described in terms of their outputs (i.e. we normally think of the pet food industry, not the offal, scraps and can industry) and there are good reasons for this (and not, in our example, just deference to our sensitivity to the feelings of domestic animals). Most inputs are used in a variety of industries usually in conjunction with different combinations of other inputs and frequently in different ways. Further, policies are normally aimed at outputs and not inputs. (Although there may be exceptions to this in the sense that the outputs of some industries form inputs into other industries.) For these reasons we have tended to couch our discussions in terms of what might be called the transport service industries providing, for example, urban transport services and international transport services. The specific modes (buses, trains, planes, etc.) then simply form inputs into each sector in combination with fixed infrastructure, labour, fuel, etc.

There is a further point to be considered. If one actually looks at the administration and control of transport in most countries (and, indeed, within such international organisations as the European Economic Community) then this is seldom divided up on a modal basis. Local or metropolitan authorites, for instance, have powers over a range of urban transport services and, in the UK at least, have a remit to co-ordinate policy across them. From this perspective, therefore, there is a further justification for avoiding an excessive concentration on modal divisions.

One final point regarding our approach. We have attempted to write a book offering the maximum degree of accessibility to readers. It is hoped that it will be of interest to a wide audience of planners, economists, political scientists and policy-makers but that it should also not be so cluttered with jargon and technique (especially mathematics) that it is outside the reach of a more general readership. We offer, therefore, a more literary volume with only the occasional recourse to a diagram or table where rather more information is important to our argument. Should readers wish to go into any aspect of the subject in more detail we have included references within the text although these have been kept to a relatively small number of key books and articles.

The Layout of the Book

As emphasised in the previous section the book attempts as much as possible to avoid dividing its discussions of policy along modal lines. Rather it looks at broad themes and issues. To this end there are eight main chapters.

Chapter 2 provides an historical background setting out in very general terms how transport policy has evolved since the cessation of hostilities at the end of the Second World War. The chapter looks at the broad threads of policy and attempts to isolate common themes but primarily it is descriptive, offering some historical content into which the more recent developments in transport policy may be slotted and against which projections of future trends may be set.

This historical discussion is followed by a far more detailed review of the direction of urban transport policy (Chapter 3). Urbanisation is advancing at a rapid pace in the less developed world while there are quite noticeable changes in urban form in many developed, industrialised economies. The chapter is lengthy, in part because of the complexity of some of the policy issues involved but also because urban transport debates are felt likely to be at the forefront of transport policy-making in the coming years. Also, unlike some other areas, there are quite marked contrasts here between the nature of the most pressing problems confronting the administrations of cities in the Third World and those confronting urban authorities in the West. Essentially, therefore, our discussions have to be divided to allow for this dichotomy.

Chapter 4 is concerned with specific issues which are likely to receive detailed attention from policy-makers over the next decade. These relate to questions of ownership of transport facilities and the regulation of transport use. Clearly, these topics are not entirely unconnected — ownership, for example, in itself provides a means of regulation — but for the sake of exposition they may be conveniently separated. In particular, there are important ongoing debates about the extent to which public ownership of transport facilities should be contracted or expanded. Equally, where there is public ownership there are key questions now being asked about the appropriate form of organisational structure to adopt, the management goals to pursue and the degree of political intervention ...