Vital Signs 2003-2004

The Trends That Are Shaping Our Future

Worldwatch Institute

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2021
• Topic: Economics
• eBook ISBN:
  9781134030330
• Subtopic: Government & Business
• Index: Economics

This annual volume from the Worldwatch Institute gives prominence to key trends that often escape the attention of the news media, world leaders and economic experts. The book distils 36 vital signs of our times from thousands of governmental, industrial and scientific sources, allowing readers to track key indicators that show our social, economic and environmental progress, or lack of it. Each trend is presented in both text and graphics, providing a thorough overview.

Part One

KEY INDICATORS

Food Trends

Grain Production Drops

Meat Production and Consumption Grow

Grain Production Drops

Brian Halweil

In 2002, global grain production declined for the third time in four years, due mainly to drought in North America and Australia.¹ At 1,833 million tons, the harvest was 3 percent lower than the previous year’s and was the smallest crop since 1995.² (See Figure 1.)

World grain production has more than doubled since 1961, mainly due to farmers harvesting more grain from each hectare, since farmers are planting grain on only slightly more land today—671 million hectares in 2002 compared with 648 million in 1967.³ The average harvest of grain from a given hectare has more than doubled worldwide, from 1.24 tons in 1961 to 2.82 tons in 2002.⁴

LINKS

pp. 30, 96

Still, production of the three major cereal crops declined in 2002. Global wheat production dropped to 562 million tons, down 3 percent; production of corn stood at 598 million tons, nearly 2 percent lower; and rice production, at 391 million tons, was 2 percent below output in 2001.⁵ These three grains account for 85 percent of the world’s grain harvest.⁶

Global grain production is concentrated geographically. China, India, and the United States alone account for 46 percent of global production. Europe, including the former Soviet states, grows another 21 percent.⁷

Of the world’s major grain-producing regions, production across Asia was up, in Europe it was stagnant, and in the North American wheat and corn belts the harvest suffered from drought and high summer temperatures.⁸ A weak and irregular monsoon reduced rice harvests in India and, to a lesser degree, in China—the world’s second largest and top rice producers, respectively. The wheat harvest declined slightly in China (the world’s largest producer) but was up in India (the second largest producer).⁹

In the United States, responsible for at least one third of the global corn harvest, a severe drought across the middle of the country cut production by 8 percent.¹⁰ And the U.S. wheat harvest was down by 14 percent—also due to drought.¹¹ In Australia, severe drought reduced the grain harvest by almost 40 percent.¹²

Despite a shift toward more meat eating and greater dietary diversity around the world, people still primarily eat foods made from grain. On average, they get about 48 percent of their calories from grains, a share that has declined just slightly from 50 percent over the last four decades.¹³ Grains, particularly corn, also form the primary feedstock for industrial livestock production.

Global grain production per person dropped to 294 kilograms in 2002, the lowest level since 1970.¹⁴ (See Figure 2.) But output per person varies dramatically by region. For instance, it stands at roughly 1,046 kilograms in North America, most of which is fed to livestock, compared with 316 kilograms in China and just 120 kilograms in sub-Saharan Africa.¹⁵

While the downward slide in the global output per person could eventually prove problematic for food supplies, the focus on this number can be misleading, since people are hungry primarily because they are too poor to purchase food, not because of an outright scarcity of food. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that there are at least 815 million chronically hungry people in the world, a modest decline from the 956 million estimated in 1970.¹⁶

Most of these hungry people are concentrated in India and Asia, although the most acute increase in hunger in 2002 was in sub-Saharan Africa, where roughly 40 million people are in immediate need of food aid.¹⁷ Following two consecutive years of poor grain harvests—exacerbated by drought, civil conflict, and HIV/AIDS—grain and flour prices in the region have increased beyond the reach of much of the population, and both imports and international relief have been insufficient to stem the rise.¹⁸

Global grain production exceeded consumption between 1996 and 1998, but the harvest has slipped below demand for the last four years, pushing down the stocks of grain held in private and government stores.¹⁹ World cereal stocks fell sharply, to some 466 million tons, by the end of 2002—nearly a 20-percent reduction in just one year and the lowest level in 40 years of recordkeeping.²⁰ The ratio of grain stocks to annual use also hit an all-time low.²¹ (See Figure 3.)

Figure 1: World Grain Production, 1961–2002

Figure 2: World Grain Production Per Person, 1961–2002

Figure 3: World Grain Stock-to-Use Ratio, 1961–2002

Meat Production and Consumption Grow

Danielle Nierenberg

The world’s appetite for meat continues to grow, with 242 million tons produced in 2002—an increase of 2.5 percent from 2001.¹ (See Figure 1.) Meat production has doubled since 1977, and over the last half-century it has increased fivefold.² Production of beef, poultry, pork, and other meats has risen to nearly 40 kilograms per person, more than twice as much as was available in 1950.³ (See Figure 2.)

Consumers in industrial nations eat more than 80 kilograms of meat per person, most of it from pork and poultry, compared with just 28 kilograms for people in developing countries.⁴ In fact, people in industrial nations eat three to four times as much meat as people living in developing countries.⁵

Yet two thirds of the gains in meat consumption in 2002 occurred in developing countries, where urbanization, rising incomes, and the globalization of trade are changing diets and increasi...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table of Contents
• Acknowledgments
• Preface
• Overview: Poverty and Inequality Block Progress
• Part One: Key Indicators
• Part Two: Special Features
• Notes
• The Vital Signs Series