CHAPTER 1
DO NOT LISTEN TO UNQUALIFIED FINANCIAL ADVICE
Let me ask you a few simple questions.
Did the government or the bank or any financial advisers, or your family or friends, advise you to buy property in the United States or United Kingdom in the very early 2000s, and to sell it in 2007? Did any of them advise you to buy gold ten years ago and sell it in 2012? Did any of these people tell you to reinvest your property profits from 2007 by buying foreclosed properties in the United States from 2008 onwards? Or to invest in new property in Singapore and London in 2009?
No?
Why do you think that is the case? Two very simple reasons: 1) Those people are not qualified because they didnāt do any of that; 2) Your radar was not tuned to pick up successful financial peopleās strategies because youāre conditioned to be an employee who must trade time for money and save hard.
Now, let me ask you another simple question. Do you think by following the simple strategies above you would have made lots of money? You are probably guessing that you would have. The truth is you could have made millions without using your own money! And you would not be reading this book right now because you would already be financially free.
The truth is some people, including myself, did follow those strategies, made millions in the process, and are still making money because we do not take advice from people who are not qualified to give it.
Do you really believe your government is great at managing money? Do you think they empower their citizens in free enterprise and money making opportunities? No? Youāre right. Letās take a look at some evidence.
DEBT TO GDP
GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, which is the economic output of a country. Debt to GDP is the ratio of what a country owesāthe debt the country is carrying or how much they are borrowing to produce all the products they export or sell within the countryāto the value of everything it produces. In some countries, this ratio is greater than 100 percent! When that ratio is very high, a country has to keep borrowing to keep its infrastructure going and pay all its workers, because the tax revenue is just not enough on its own. And when this continually happens the government will do two things:
1. They will institute austerity measures: The Government will increase taxes and increase the cost of every service they provide so that they can collect more revenue to keep the country going.
2. They will print more money. Austerity measures do not collect enough cash. You can only collect so much money from the same amount of people paying tax; therefore, they print money.
Does that seem a bit odd to you?
They are taxing you more, and paying themselves more, so you end up with a lot less, and they end up with a lot more. Itās not even your debt, yet youāre paying for it and you still have to pay the people managing your tax dollars so terribly.
Let me put it this way: When you go to a supermarket and pay for your purchases you get an itemized receipt outlining exactly what you spent your money on. When you pay your tax bill the government doesnāt issue an itemized receipt outlining exactly where your money went. Governments donāt share that information with you because governments are not transparent. But what they do tell you is that if you donāt pay your tax bill, you are breaking the law and will be jailed!
Now if you had been educated on how to understand basic economic data, you could be rich right now. If you had understood why there was an economic crisis in 2008, and you had been told to buy assets at rock bottom prices, you would be financially free right now.
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
The world is still affected by the global financial crisis. Millions of people lost their homes and savings were wiped out in a year. The bankers gained control of the economy and the government let them do it. Home prices in some places dropped to less than half their value in as little as six months.
And I am going to take the time to explain how this happened to you. Once you understand it, first of all youāre going to be so shocked at how uncomplicated it really is, and then you are going to learn for the first time in your life to be in control of your own money and stop trusting unqualified people with it.
Why did the GFC happen? How can you profit and help other people profit from every recession from now on?
Before I elaborate it is important for you to understand the definitions that follow. If you read them you will grasp what I am about to say with ease. Part of the reason I include these definitions is because you need to know the truth and you need to see that this information is the same from all sources.
INVESTMENT BANK
āAn investment bank is a financial institution that assists individuals, corporations, and governments in raising financial capital by underwriting or acting as the clientās agent in the issuance of securities (or both). An investment bank may also assist companies involved in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and provide ancillary services such as market making, trading of derivatives and equity securities, and FICC services (fixed income instruments, currencies, and commodities).ā
āWikipedia, s.v. āInvestment Banking,ā accessed October 9, 2015, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_banking.
DERIVATIVE
āIn finance, a derivative is a contract that derives its value from the performance of another entity. This entity can be an asset, index, or interest rate, and is often called the āunderlying.ā Derivatives can be used for a number of purposes, including insuring against price movements (hedging), increasing exposure to price movements for speculation or getting access to otherwise hard-to-trade assets or markets. Some of the more common derivatives include forwards, futures, options, swaps, and variations of these such as synthetic collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps. Most derivatives are traded over-the-counter (off-exchange) or on an exchange such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, while most insurance contracts have developed into a separate industry. Derivatives are one of the three main categories of financial instruments, the other two being stocks (i.e., equity or shares) and debt (i.e., bonds and mortgages).ā
āWikipedia, s.v. āDerivative (Finance),ā accessed October 9, 2015, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance).
COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATION (CDO)
āA collateralized debt obligation (CDO) is a type of structured asset-backed security (ABS). Originally developed for the corporate debt markets, over time CDOs evolved to encompass the mortgage and mortgage-backed security (āMBSā) markets. Like other private label securities backed by assets, a CDO can be thought of as a promise to pay investors in a prescribed sequence, based on the cash flow the CDO collects from the pool of bonds or other assets it owns. The CDO is āslicedā into ātranches,ā which ācatchā the cash flow of interest and principal payments in sequence based on seniority. If some loans default and the cash collected by the CDO is insufficient to pay all of its investors, those in the lowest, most ājuniorā tranches suffer losses first. The last to lose payment from default are the safest, most senior tranches. Consequently, coupon payments (and interest rates) vary by tranche with the safest/most senior tranches paying the lowest rates and the lowest tranches paying the highest rates to compensate for higher default risk. As an example, a CDO might issue the following tranches in order of safeness: Senior AAA (sometimes known as āsuper seniorā); Junior AAA; AA; A; BBB; Residual.ā
āWikipedia, s.v. āCollateralized Debt Obligation,ā accessed October 9, 2015, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collateralized_debt_obligation.
SUBPRIME LENDING
āIn finance, subprime lending (also referred to as near-prime, nonprime, and second-chance lending) means making loans to people who may have difficulty maintaining the repayment schedule, sometimes reflecting setbacks such as unemployment, divorce, medical emergencies, etc. Historically, subprime borrowers were defined as having a FICO scores below 640, although āthis has varied over time and circumstances.ā
āThese loans are characterized by higher interest rates, poor quality collateral, and less favorable terms in order to compensate for higher credit risk. Many subprime loans were packaged into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and ultimately defaulted, contributing to the financial crisis of 2007ā2008.
āProponents of subprime lending maintain that the practice extends credit to people who would otherwise not have access to the credit market. Professor Harvey S. Rosen of Princeton University explained, āThe main thing that innovations in the mortgage market have done over the past 30 years is to let in the excluded: the young, the discriminated-against, and the people without a lot of money in the bank to use for a down payment.āā
āWikipedia, s.v. āSubprime Lending,ā accessed October 9, 2015, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_lending.
SUBPRIME CRISIS
āThe U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was a nationwide banking emergency that coincided with the U.S. recession of December 2007āJune 2009. It was triggered by a large decline in home prices, leading to mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures and the devaluation of housing-related securities. Declines in residential investment preceded the recession and were followed by reductions in household spending and then business investment. Spending reductions were more significant in areas with a combination of high household debt and larger housing price declines.
āThe expansion of household debt was financed with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO), which initially offered attractive rates of return due to the higher interest rates on the mortgages; however, the lower credit quality ultimately caused massive defaults. While elements of the crisis first became more visible during 2007, several major financial institutions collapsed in September 2008, with significant disruption in the flow of credit to businesses and consumers and the onset of a severe global recession.
āThere were many causes of the crisis, with commentators assigning different levels of blame to financial institutions, regulators, credit agencies, government housing policies, and consumers, among others. A proximate cause was the rise in subprime lending. The percentage of lower-quality subprime mortgages originated during a given year rose from the historical 8% or lower range to approximately 20% from 2004 to 2006, with much higher ratios in some parts of the U.S. A high percentage of these subprime mortgages, over 90% in 2006 for example, were adjustable-rate mortgages. These two changes were part of a broader trend of lowered lending standards and higher-risk mortgage products. Further, U.S. households had become increasingly indebted, with the ratio of debt to disposable personal income rising from 77% in 1990 to 127% at the end of 2007, much of this increase mortgage-related.ā
āWikipedia, s.v. āSubprime Mortgage Crisis,ā accessed October 9, 2015, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis.
SECURITIZATION
āSecuritization is the financial practice of pooling various types of contractual debt such as residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, auto loans or credit card debt obligations (or other non-debt assets which generate receivables) and selling their related cash flows to third party investors as securities, which may be described as bonds, pass-through securities, or collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Investors are repaid from the principal and interest cash flows collected from the underlying debt and redistributed through the capital structure of the new financing. Securities backed by mortgage receivables are called mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while those backed by other types of receivables are called asset-backed securities.ā
āWikipedia, s.v. āSecuritization,ā accessed October 9, 2015, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securitization.
RATINGS AGENCY
āA credit rating agency (CRA, also called a ratings service) is a company that assigns credit ratings, which rate a debtorās ability to pay back debt by making timely interest payments and the likelihood of default. An agency may rate the creditworthiness of issuers of debt obligations, of debt instruments, and in some cases, of the servicers of the underlying debt, but not of individual consumers.
āThe debt instruments rated by CRAs include government bonds, corporate bonds, CDs, municipal bonds, preferred stock, and collateralized securities, such as mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations.
āThe issuers of the obligations or securities may be companies, special purpose entities, state or local governments, non-profit organizations, or sovereign nations. A credit rating facilitates the trading of securities on a secondary market. It affects the interest rate that a security pays out, with higher ratings leading to lower interest rates. I...