1.1.1 What are models?
Models essentially capture some physical system of interest, say a space shuttle, or a bacterial cell, or a human population where a communicable disease is spreading. Mathematical models capture these systems typically by means of mathematical equations. Models are abstractions of real-world systems; in fact, they are abstractions of (key) parts of a real-world system, capturing features deemed to be essential by the modeller. Modelling is thus a very subjective process, driven by the need to answer specific questions about the real-world system. Models can comprise a bunch of mathematical objects or equations, or even a computer program. Every model is characterised by assumptions on the real-world system, as well as approximations. These assumptions cover:
variables (things that change),
parameters (things that do not change, or are assumed to not change), and
functional forms (that connect the variables and parameters),
Bender [2] defines a model as an āabstract, simplified, mathematical construct related to a part of reality and created for a particular purposeā. This succinct definition harps on several key points:
The last point is very importantāit is not unusual to find models that are built or known to be valid only under certain conditions, but are unwittingly applied to other conditions as well. For example, there are models that predict the initial rate of an enzyme-catalysed reaction when no product is present. Often, the same model is used to also predict/fit observations of measurements made at later time-points. There are certain assumptions that have gone into the model building processāif we lose sight of them at some point in time, we are very likely to commit major errors in predictions. Robert May outlines some of these points nicely in his essay titled āUses and Abuses of Mathematics in Biologyā [3].
Models can also be thought to divide the world into three sets [2]:
things whose effects are deliberately neglected (things beyond the system boundary),
things that are known to affect the model but which the model is not designed to study (things beyond the scope of the model), and
things/effects the model is actually designed to study,
In any modelling exercise, we must deliberately choose to neglect several things. Otherwise, we must build a āwhole-universe modelā, for any system to be studied! Therefore, we carefully choose a system boundary and consciously neglect various effects outside of this boundary. For example, while studying bacterial chemotaxis2 in an open vessel, we may choose to neglect the effect of wind in the room or the temperature of the environment.
A particular model of chemotaxis may choose to ignore the temperature of the cell suspension, fully knowing that it can have an effect on chemotaxis. That is, these effects are considered to be beyond the scope of the model. The things or effects the model is actually designed to study are the variables of interest. In the chemotaxis example, this would be the concentration of an āattractantā, such as glucose. What we choose to neglectāin terms of both the system boundary and model scopeāobviously affects both the complexity of a model, and its accuracy/predictive power. As Einstein purportedly remarked [3], āmodels should be as simple as possible, but not more soāāa practical translation of Occam's razor (see §6.4.1) for modellers.