CHAPTER 1 Food Power and Free Markets
In the early 1970s, record high oil prices collided with an overheated US economy, a broken foreign aid program, rich-country protectionism, and the reorganization of US agricultural production to meet the needs of markets, not people.1 While most Americans would remember 1972â74 as the end of cheap oil, for the worst off in poor countries, it meant the end of cheap food. The United Nations even created a new categoryâMost Seriously Affected (MSA)âfor the thirty-three nations (mostly in Africa and the Middle East) where some half a billion people faced starvation.2
On May 1, 1974âInternational Labor Dayâa diverse coalition of developing countries presented to the UN General Assembly a proposal for a New International Economic Order (NIEO).3 Acting just months after Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had launched their embargo, during which time the price of oil quadrupled, the NIEOâs Third World supporters hoped to negotiate a redistribution of money and power from the rich industrial North to the poor countries of the South. Their weapon was control over the price of major commoditiesâespecially oilâthat had made possible the United Statesâ and Europeâs spectacular prosperity after World War II. The NIEOâs âProgramme of Actionâ for food identified âfluctuating, temporary and excessively high-price levelsâ for agricultural inputs from the North as a central obstacle to development in the South, and it called for new international bodies to stabilize prices and increase concessional food aid and technology transfer.4
US food policy was both a catalyst for OPECâs decision to enact a spike in oil prices and the first tool with which the United States sought to break OPECâThird World solidarity and rein in the NIEO. Secretary of state Henry Kissinger viewed food as the most powerful weapon against the Arab oil producers, all of which were large importers of US grain. The United States exercised enormous leverage over world food prices, as demonstrated in 1972, when a $1.1 billion deal with the Soviet Union tripled the price of wheat on international markets.5 At the UN General Assembly in September 1974, Kissinger and president Gerald Ford charged OPEC with exacerbating the food crisis through its actions and insisted that high oil prices hurt the poorest countries the most.6
OPEC and even the MSA nations were unpersuaded by this logic. Instead, most developing countries believed that food prices were part of a larger system of unfair trade, one that overcharged them for rich countriesâ exports and underpaid for their own. The connection among the food crisis, the oil crisis, and the NIEO was not lost on contemporary observers. âWhat we have witnessed [in the last two years],â observed historian Geoffrey Barraclough in August 1975, âis the opening stage of a struggle for a new world order, a search for positions of strength in a global realignment, in which the weapons (backed, naturally, by the ultimate sanction of force) are food and fuel.â7
Those weapons were on full display in November 1974 at the World Food Conference in Rome. Kissinger, who took the lead in organizing the conference, sought to divide what he called the âunholy allianceâ of OPEC and the rest of the Third World through limited compromise.8 His plan was to use US food power to negotiate toward a global system of grain reserves for poor countries, so that a food shortage need never again turn into a crisis. Such an action, Kissinger believed, would convince poor and hungry countries that they had more to gain by cooperating with Washington to improve the existing global economic order than by trying to overthrow it with Algiers.
Kissingerâs strategy faced many challenges, but the most immediate was internal. His willingness to endorse global market interventions was strongly opposed by the Nixon and Ford administrationsâ influential secretary of agriculture, Earl Butz. An evangelist of free markets and self-reliance, Butz sought nothing less than âto remove the [US] government from the conduct of agriculture, and the United States from the conduct of the world food economy.â9 He was backed by Fordâs notably promarket and antistate (or âmarket fundamentalistâ10) economic team, especially treasury secretary William Simon and Alan Greenspan, head of the presidentâs Council of Economic Advisers and a member of Fordâs Economic Policy Board (EPB). Nor did Kissinger do himself any favors by running roughshod over the bureaucracies at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Treasury Department as he attempted to seize control of the administrationâs international economic policymaking to confront the NIEO. Ideological and personal disagreements between Kissinger and Fordâs economic advisers over how to respond to the Third Worldâs challenge would continue after the World Food Conference, reinforcing the OPECâThird World alliance and further isolating the United States from its closest allies in western Europe.
US Economic Policy and the 1972â1974 World Food Crisis
The 1960s was a decade of promise in food production due to advances in agricultural technology in the North and agricultural modernization in the South. This Green Revolution meant that from 1960 to 1972, the global production of grainsâthe main food supply for most of the worldâincreased almost every year, saving millions from hunger but also dramatically reducing crop diversity and increasing dependence on fossil fuels.11
Rising incomes and populations in developing countries buffeted the global demand for grains. Not only did more people need to be fed; as poor people become richer, they tend to eat more dairy, poultry, and meat, which require large amounts of grain to raise.12 Yet while incomes rose across the world, developing countries took a smaller part of the growing pie. Their share of world trade declined from 31 percent in 1950 to 21.4 percent in 1960 to just 17.2 percent in 1970, by which time the three largest economiesâthe United States, West Germany, and Japanâtogether accounted for more than a third.13
Overall growth in food supply and world trade masked these asymmetries, but they had serious consequences. Because the demand for food is highly inelastic, even small decreases in food supply can result in large price increases. This effect is exacerbated in poor countries, where most grain is produced for immediate consumptionâfeeding family and livestockârather than sold.14 Nor was the Green Revolution performing as well as its supporters had promised. âAgricultural output has grown so slowly [in developing countries],â the Council of Economic Advisers explained in 1967, âthat food output per person in many countries is below preâWorld War II levels.â At the same time, âover halfâ of their annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP)âwhich, at 4.5 percent, was just shy of the UNâs target for the Development Decadeââhas been needed just to maintain their low level of living.â15
US agricultural and trade policy presented another impediment to increasing food production in the Third World. Due to generous farm subsidies implemented during the Great Depression, by the mid-1960s the United States had become the worldâs leading exporter of grain. In response, the US government promoted cheap wheat exports and increased food aid through Public Law (PL) 480, also known as Food for Peace. What was not sold to developing countries, on highly advantageous terms, was stockpiled. Although this brought relatively stable, predictable, and low food prices for those countries, it gave neither farmers nor governments an incentive to invest in domestic production.
For a while, the United Statesâ Cold War food policy paid considerable domestic dividends. Consistent US government purchases of farmersâ surpluses boosted rural incomes during an unprecedented period of wage and employment growth in manufacturing centers and suburbs, and a powerful farm lobby in Washington grew to ensure that stockpiling was a bilateral commitment. But mounting federal deficits in the late 1960s led some politicians to question whether this commitment was worth the cost. President Richard Nixon complained that the United States was paying for the large majority of a scheme to stabilize world food prices, while the European Community (EC) discriminated against US food exports through its Common Agricultural Policy. The Nixon administration concluded that reducing stockpiles and holding back production would help US farmers by increasing world prices. From mid-1970 to mid-1972, the United States reduced its production of wheat by one-third, bringing down its share of global production from 15 percent to 10 percent.16
In June 1971 the Nixon administration moved to liberalize trade with the Soviet Union, eastern Europe, and China. The centerpiece of Nixonâs overture was the promise of a massive sale of heavily subsidized grain to the Soviet Union. There was no actual grain shortage in the Soviet bloc. Facing an economic slowdown and short on hard currency, the Soviets planned to use the grain both as animal feed to maintain citizensâ increased meat consumption (and thus loyalty) and as a commodity to sell on global markets for badly needed dollars. The deal also met several goals for the Nixon administration. It promoted dĂ©tente, pleasing Kissinger; it was relatively cheap, pleasing the Treasury Department; it reduced US stockpiles, pleasing the USDA; and it raised prices, pleasing the farm bloc just in time for the 1972 elections. In what one journalist memorialized as the âGreat American Grain Robbery,â the Soviet Union alone absorbed about half of US carryover stocks in 1972 and more than one-quarter of total 1972 production.17 In 1961 world food reservesâheld mostly by the United Statesâcould sustain world needs for 105 days; by 1974, those reserves could sustain needs for only thirty-three days.18 The combination of lower production and the deliberate liquidation of stockpiles made the United States, and thus the world, ill prepared for any sudden shocks.19
The first shock came on August 15, 1971, when the Nixon administration ended the Bretton Woods gold exchange standard by allowing the dollar to float. Some countries still played ball, choosing to take more dollars rather than forcing the leader of the worldâs monetary system to devalue. But the writing was on the wall: countries such as West Germany and France refused to permit more and more inflation to support the lifestyles of US citizens or the quagmire in Vietnam, and traders in foreign exchange markets, believing the dollar to be overvalued, began to sell them rapidly. In May 1971 West Germany left the Bretton Woods system; in July, Switzerland and France asked for more than $140 million in gold. âI donât give a shit about the lira,â Nixon insisted in June, and he asked his advisers to come up with a policy that would boost the domestic economy in time for the 1972 elections.20 John Connally, his new noneconomist treasury secretary, was entrusted with pulling together the views of Federal Reserve chairman Arthur Burns, undersecretary for international monetary affairs Paul Volcker, and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) director George Schulz. The administrationâs âNew Economic Policy,â announced August 15, consisted of the suspension of the dollarâs convertibility into gold, a ninety-day wage and price freeze, a 10 percent cut in foreign aid, and a 10 percent import surcharge.21
The dollarâs devaluation might have helped poor countries buy more US grain. In fact, Nixon intended to increase agricultural exports to balance US accounts, a strategy pursued more aggressively by Secretary Butz following the 1972 elections. However, the grain agreements with communist countries depleted the majority of the US surplus; at the same time, a series of bad weather events limited production in other important producers such as Australia, Argentina, India, and Peru.22
The devaluation also set off a series of events in international energy markets that had serious consequences for food prices. Throughout the 1950s, several Middle Eastern oil producers charged that Western governments were colluding with multinational oil companies (MOCs) to keep prices artificially low. Following the Anglo-Iranian Oil Companyâs refusal to cooperate on a new agreement with the Iranian government, prime minister Mohammed Mossadegh nationalized the countryâs oil industry. The Anglo-American coup that ousted Mossadegh from power in 1953 served as a powerful example of the limitations of the Third Worldâs economic and political sovereignty in the postwar era.
Determined to increase their share of profits from the MOCsâ exploitation of their reserves, the governments of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela met in Baghdad in 1960 to announce the formation of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Through most of the 1960s, OPEC was essentially an informal bargaining group, confining its activities to negotiating better profit-sharing agreements with MOCs. But because oil was priced in dol...