Robots, Ethics and the Future of Jobs

Sean McDonagh

• Publisher: Messenger Publications
• Year: 2021
• Print ISBN: 9781788123068
• eBook ISBN: 9781788123075
• Topic: Computer Science
• Subtopic: Artificial Intelligence (AI) & Semantics
• Index: Computer Science

“I love my robot lawn mowers, my laptop, wifi, Google, Facetime, Whatsapp and the possibility of drone postal deliveries and more.. Yet worries nag about being overwhelmed by an artificial intelligence revolution whose ethical and moral parameters are less clear than its rampant profiteering from and monetising of your lives and mine. This hugely informative book shakes us out of our massage armchairs and demands that we engage immediately with these galloping advances so we can shape them to the benefit of the many and not leave them to the enrichment of the few at the awful cost of the impoverishment of swathes of humanity”. Mary McAleese, former President of Ireland. "Robots, Ethics and The Future of Jobs is a wakeup call for political, civic, media and church leaders, urging a response to the deepening and accelerating pace of technological change and its potential consequences. Artificial Intelligence, robotics, drones, the internet of things and 3D printing are the building blocks of the 4thindustrial revolution. Thesetechnologies offer great potential but also carry real risks and are reaching into every corner of our lives, civilianand military. Who will win and who will lose? Who will set the rules and the ethical boundaries within which they should develop and operate? Will the displaced be included, if so, how; or ignored and, if so, with what political, social and economic consequences? That these questions cannot be avoided and should not be postponed - and that we do not need to wait for change to happen because it is already upon us - are central messages of this thought provoking text." Pat Cox, former President European Parliament.

Chapter 1

The Impact of AI on Jobs

Alan Turing, one of the first scholars to become involved in developing AI, had Irish connections. His mother, Ethel Stoney, a member of the landlord class in North Tipperary was born in Arran Hill House located near the town of Borrisokane. Turing studied mathematics at King’s College in Cambridge and completed a PhD there in 1938. While at the university, he realised that computers are very efficient machines for adding, subtracting and making logical decisions.

During the Second World War Turing worked at the British government’s Code and Cypher School at Bletchley. While working there he played a crucial role in breaking the German military code. This helped the Allies win various battles, including the Battle of the Atlantic which many believed shortened the war.

After the Second World War, Turing became deputy director of the computing laboratory at the University of Manchester, where he worked at building computers, and engaged in pioneering work on AI. Turing was very influential in the development of theoretical computer science.

‘Pepper’ in Parliament

In October 2018, ‘Pepper’, a humanoid robot, was brought to the British parliament at Westminster to demonstrate how robots are being engineered to look and act like humans. The chair of Westminster’s Education Committee, Robert Halfon, asked Pepper to introduce himself, not itself. In reply, Pepper said, ‘Good morning, Chair. Thank you for inviting me to give evidence here today. My name is Pepper, and I’m the resident robot at Middlesex University.’1

We need to be careful with the language we use when describing robots and algorithms. It is inappropriate to give a human name to robots or algorithms as it humanises what are merely sophisticated machines. While recognising that these machines are powerful and can accomplish complex tasks, we must be clear that they do not have consciousness or share human emotions or values.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution

We are now beginning to realise how powerful AI machines can be. AI recognises patterns and finds relationships in data that are so complex that no individual human being or groups of humans can see those connections. In January 2017, Libratus, an AI program designed to play poker, was entered in a twenty-day-longtournament against four of the best poker players in the world.2 Libratus won. Previously, AI machines had beaten humans at chess, and at a Korean game called ‘Go’, which is often regarded as one of the most complex games in existence. The algorithms that powered Libratus were designed to have applications beyond winning at poker.

AI is being used in agriculture, finance, banking, insurance, healthcare, education, agriculture, policing, retail, construction, trade, military strategies and in the care of the young and the elderly. These new technologies are found in every country across the globe. The office of the Revenue Commissioners in Ireland has stated that they will team up with Accenture, one of the largest consulting and technology firms in the world, to bring high-tech expertise to the tax system. Accenture helps businesses to redefine their strategies and to work creatively with the new technologies. In September 2018, they tested a voice-driven digital assistant that will help callers with their queries.3

It is important to situate AI – robots, drones and 3D printing – in the context of the industrial revolutions that have shaped our modern world for the last two and a half centuries. The first Industrial Revolution, driven by steam, began in Britain after the 1750s. While it destroyed jobs on farms and the rural-based clothing business, manufacturing industries created many new jobs in the factories that sprang up in cities like Birmingham and Manchester. It also gave rise to a rail network, which helped move goods and people around Britain. Growth in international shipping made it possible for British industrial goods to be sold around the world.

The second Industrial Revolution began in the 1860s, when oil, gas and electricity were harnessed to power industry and transport in Britain, the US and Europe. In the early twentieth century, Henry Ford developed assembly-line technology in his car manufacturing industry in Detroit. This technology greatly improved workers’ productivity. Ford believed that his workers would not only manufacture cars, but that they would also buy cars themselves, further stimulating the market.

The third Industrial Revolution began in the 1960s with the arrival of computers. This, too, had a major impact on society, as workers moved from purely mechanical technology to digital technology in the 1960s and 1970s.

The fourth Industrial Revolution is being driven by technologies such as AI, robots, drones and 3D printing. I will argue that the disruption brought about by our current high-tech revolution will be like that caused by the first and second Industrial Revolutions in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The reason is that it redefines the very nature of work.

Not everyone accepts this analysis. There are those who argue that the present technological revolution will follow the same pattern as the previous technology revolutions. For example, when old technologies, such as coopering and typesetting, became redundant, new jobs were created. This book will challenge that position, and argue that these new technologies will lead to huge levels of unemployment.

The Future of Jobs

One of the findings in the British Government’s response to the House of Lords’ Artificial Intelligence Select Committee’s Report on AI is that the labour market is changing, and further significant disruption to the market is expected as AI is adopted throughout the economy. As we move into this unknown territory, the forecasts about the growing impact of AI on job losses, job enhancement and new jobs, are inevitably speculative. However, there is an urgent need to analyse and assess, on an ongoing basis, the evolution of AI, so that adequate policies can be pursed in response to this new and challenging situation.4

In his book, Why the Future is Workless, Tim Dunlop predicts that these technologies will replace people in the workforce, and lead to significant levels of unemployment and impoverishment for large groups of people.5 Terry Gou is a Taiwanese tycoon and founder and chairman of Foxconn, one of the biggest high-tech companies in the world, with factories all over China, making smartphones for many tech companies. In 2011, Mr Gou promised to buy one million robots to replace many of the workers whom he employs. While it appears that his automation plans are being implemented more slowly than expected, he is still in the process of reducing the number of workers he requires. At the end of 2016, the employees at his companies numbered 837,000.6 One of the reasons why he is investing in robots is that during the last decade wages in China have risen significantly. As a result, it is now more expensive to keep a large workforce in China than it was during the past two decades.7

Early in 2018, online retailer Shop Direct warned that 2,000 jobs were at risk of being lost, as the company moved into a new distribution centre.8 Economists fear that those on lower incomes or engaged in manual work will be the first to be affected. However, automation will also claw away at the jobs of the middle class. This will put huge pressure on government finances as income tax revenue will drop dramatically.

Not everyone would agree with or accept my analysis. A report from The World Economic Forum (WEF) insists that globally, about 133 million jobs will be created by these new technologies, while 75 million jobs will be lost. These findings are the result of a survey of executives representing fifteen million workers in twenty countries.9 Their view is not widely shared by the many commentators who foresee major adverse changes in employment, as more and more workplaces become automated over a short period of time.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that about 1.5 million workers in Britain are at risk of losing their jobs to automation. They estimate that women and those in part-time work will be most affected. These statistics show that supermarket checkout assistants, most of whom are women, have already borne the brunt of the introduction of automation in the retail trade, with 25.3 per cent of jobs in the sector disappearing between 2011 and 2017.10

In Ireland, many commentators claim that these new technologies could affect more than 40 per cent of jobs. In 2020, Heather Humphreys, Minister for Social Protection and Rural and Community Development, believes that Irish workers face a 50 per cent chance that their jobs will be automated in little more than a decade.11 A government report, Future Jobs Ireland 2019, predicted that secretaries, cleaners, taxi drivers, machinery operators and shop workers could lose their jobs. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar predicted that two out of every five jobs in Ireland will disappear, or change substantially, over the next twenty years, because of increasing automation.12 If this happens in an unplanned way, it will have a massive negative impact, not only on the poor, but on the middle class, and this will be very disruptive for society, especially if it is not planned for in a competent way. This, unfortunately, is not happening at the moment. No section of Irish society, whether politicians, academics or religious leaders, are preparing quickly enough for such an outcome.

An Oxford Study on the Future of Employment

These issues are not confined to Ireland. In S...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Chapter 1 The Impact of AI on Jobs
• Chapter 2 Algorithms and AI
• Chapter 3 3D Printing is Transforming Construction, Manufacturing and Medical Equipment
• Chapter 4 Robots and Drones
• Chapter 5 Robots and the Future of Farming
• Chapter 6 The Impact of AI on Caring for Children, the Elderly and Those with Special Needs
• Chapter 7 The Impact of AI on Retail, Hospitality, Banking, Finance and Call Centres
• Chapter 8 Self-driven Cars and Trucks
• Chapter 9 Robots and Warfare
• Chapter 10 Universal Basic Income (UBI)
• Chapter 11 Catholic Social Teaching and Work
• Afterword
• Bibliography