1
IDENTIFYING CHANGE
One of the roles of the chief of staff is to identify an unexpected strategic shift at as early a date as possible, announce the change, and see that the necessary steps are taken in the IDF to prepare for it. Many information sources are available for tracking the emergence of a new situation, such as the military intelligence directorate (Aman) and other intelligence sources, as well as the chief of staffâs firsthand interaction with the reality in the field. Whatever the provenance, the chief of staff must be able to recognize that a change is taking place in the security reality and decide when to act so that the IDF will have sufficient time to prepare. The case studies in this chapter illustrate that in some instances the chief of staff identified the change and prepared the IDF in advance. On other occasions, the change was obvious and the chief of staff had only to reconceptualize the situation and proceed in the right direction. In yet other instances, the chief of staff apparently failed to grasp the change and thus reacted relatively late.
The following six cases are presented chronologically: David Elazar, who ordered the Blue and White alert in May 1973 five months before the Yom Kippur War; Dan Shomronâs relatively slow response to the outbreak of the first intifada in late 1987; Amnon Lipkin-Shahakâs definition of routine security operations in the security zone in Lebanon in 1995 as a combat situation; Shaul Mofazâs preparation of the IDF in 2000 prior to the outbreak of the second intifada in October that year; Dan Halutzâs failure to shift the IDF from a routine security mindset to a war mentality in the Second Lebanon War in 2006; and Benny Gantzâs definition of the response to changes in the Golan Heights in 2011â13.
The examples here are âclearâ cases, meaning thatâregardless of each chief of staffâs successes or failures in identifying and defining the emerging threatsâeach had a significant impact on the IDF. The study does not examine instances in which the chief of staff initiated changes that occurred over a long period of time and are therefore difficult to capture and define.
In the conclusion to this chapter, I analyze factors that helped each chief of staff gain an early understanding of the change, those that impeded his understanding, and those that either assisted or impeded the implementation of a change in the IDF after the chief of staff recognized the need for such.
It should be emphasized that identifying a change in the region and launching the IDF on the path of change are not solely the chief of staffâs responsibility. The political echelon is also under obligation. One example is David Ben-Gurionâs swift realization that the soon-to-be-declared state had to prepare for war with the Arab armies and the measures he took to attain this readiness. Another is Defense Minister Moshe Arensâs establishment of the Home Front Command, a regional command responsible for civil defense, when he recognized the emerging missile threat to the civilian population.
David Elazar and the Announcement of the Blue and White Alert in May 1973
In April 1973, two and a half years after the War of Attrition with Egypt ended in August 1970, Lieutenant General David Elazar announced the Blue and White alertâraising the state of military readiness for conflict with Egyptâwhich remained in effect until August. The alert had a major impact on the IDF in the Yom Kippur War, which erupted on October 6 that year, because it allowed the IDF to acquire new equipment, organize units, and move bases closer to the borders. This enabled the army to meet the challenge admirably despite the warâs strategic surprise for Israel.
Elazarâs decision to order the alert ran contrary to Amanâs official assessment. On Passover Eve (April 16, 1973), the chief of staff assembled the general staff and cynically warned that the meeting was not called âto hand out the traditional Passover holiday reading passages.â Major General Eli Zeira, the head of Aman, repeated his estimate that no substantial change had occurred in Egyptian strength since the previous yearâs situation assessment at the end of 1972, and that the Libyan Mirage and Iraqi Hunter jet fighter planes that Egypt had received were incapable of altering the balance of airpower. Zeira said, âThe probability of war is low, almost nonexistentâbut it still exists.â Many of the participants in the discussion agreed. Ariel Sharon, the commander of Southern Command, said that he felt prepared for a war in Sinai: âAll in all, weâre in very good shape regarding control measures and communications systems, command posts, and access roads to the Suez Canal.â The head of the doctrine and training branch (Mahad), Major General Shmuel Gonen, on the other hand, believed that the IDF did not have to proceed according to this information as though there were no danger, âbecause if something does happen we wonât be able to explain to ourselves and others that we thought that war wouldnât break out.â Elazar said, âWe must consider the warnings [of an Egyptian surprise attack] weâve received with utmost seriousness and take full advantage of the coming month for intensive preparation.â He focused on developing bridging equipment to cross the Suez Canal, refreshing operational plans, and elevating the state of readiness. He summed up the situation thus: âIf war erupts next month or month and a half, weâll be able to respond with maximum effect.â Prime Minister Golda Meir consulted with Elazar on April 18. Afterward, the chief of staff called another situation assessment meeting in which he said: âThis time the warningâunlike the warnings of October, November, and December 1972âis more serious. If previously the probability was estimated at âclose to zero,â this time the likelihood seems higher, regardless of Amanâs assessment that [Egyptian leader Anwar] Sadat wonât open fire at this stage.â1
Elazar judged the probability of Egypt opening fire sufficiently high to commence preparations, all of which would be in the form of updating plans. The chief of staff stipulated the implementation of practical preparations on additional intelligence signals that he anticipated in the coming days.2
In the ministerial committee on security affairs on April 24, the chief of staff stated:
Even if I agree with the assessment of the head of Aman of low likelihood to this possibilityâand Iâm referring to the second part of the sentence, âlow likelihoodââI still think that it is more likely than the two last [intelligence] warnings, in late 1972 and late 1971. And despite the low likelihood, we are forced to maintain a certain level of alert, which is what weâre doing. The current alerts do not include troop mobilization or movement, but weâre doing many other things.3
The Blue and White alert consisted of various steps to accelerate force buildup on the eve of war that had to be taken. The following are the main points:4
Organization. The dates for establishing the following units were significantly advanced to the second half of 1973: the 210th Division (originally scheduled for March 1974); the 418th Ivry Missile Unit; the 440th Division Task Force Headquarters; three reconnaissance battalions (originally slated for AugustâNovember 1973); two assault roller bridging units; and two reserve engineer battalions.
Operational infrastructures. In the Golan Heights, anti-tank ditches, dirt roads, and landline communications systems were constructed, and two reserve brigade bases were moved closer to the Heights; in Sinai, reserve bases were established close to the Suez Canal. (The Agranat Reportâthe official postwar investigation committee on the failure in war preparationsâfound that Northern Commandâs early establishment of bases for reserve armored brigades closer to the border played a decisive role in their arrival in time to the Golan Heights to block the Syrian attack west into Israel.)
Equipment. Significant additions were made in communication systems, water-bridging equipment, and rocket launchers. R&D on tow bars for pulling the roller bridges (two-hundred-meter-long bridges for crossing the Suez Canal) at the steep lateral angles in the sand dunes in the Suez Canal area received top priority (regardless of cost) but failed to reach a suitable answer in time for the war.
Training. The early formation of units doubtless had a marked effect on the amount of training being carried out. Various training exercises were held, such as canal bridging for designated units. For example, the first training session for the 257th Armored Reserve Battalion/421st Brigade (established in April 1973) lasted ten days and was followed by a scaled-down divisional exercise in August. The 257th was originally scheduled to receive the tanks and equipment in 1974.
Alert. Calling an alert is not considered an element of force buildup. But in order to complete the picture, it is important to mention that on May 25, 1973, Agam began preparations for the mobilization of the reservists, which included checking emergency mobilization procedures; ordering regular army headquarters to test the call-up of reserve units and confirm home addresses; readying emergency stores units; dispatching mobile artillery units to Sinai; and hastily deploying bridging equipment.
Discussions were held on operational plans. In two meetings in late April and early May, the chief of staff affirmed all the operational plans. They were later presented to the defense minister and prime minister.5 All these preparations took place while Israel was celebrating its twenty-fifth Independence Day in a mood of prosperity and confidence, oblivious to the rumblings of the approaching war. A summary of this intensive activity was presented in GHQ on May 8, one day after the gala Independence Day military parade.6
The Blue and White alert lasted four months (April to August) and ended without any hostile action or increased tension at the border. The price tag of 69 million Israeli lira (approximately $73 million in 2019 US dollars) improved significantly the IDFâs preparedness for the Yom Kippur War, October 6â25, 1973.7 Major General Israel Tal commented on the alertâs effectiveness: âThe IDF entered the Yom Kippur War stronger than what was planned for 1974â1975.â8
In concluding this section, it should be stressed that the chief of staff issued the alert without Amanâs backing. The head of Aman viewed with overt skepticism all of the possible scenarios that Elazar had laid out in detail. He regarded the outbreak of war as most unlikely and said that, as hard as he tried, he failed to find any signs of an increase in its likelihood. The discussions lasted over three weeks. GHQ assumed that Sadat may have had a âmotiveâ and the threats should not be underestimated (an assumption shared by the ministers Dayan and Galili), but a significant difference existed between the assessments of the head of Aman (who also reports directly to the prime minister) and those of the chief of staff, a gap that remained throughout the period. Elazar also said that, based on available information, he agreed with the estimate that a low likelihood for war existedâbut not a âveryâ low likelihood. On the contrary, he believed that âthe likelihood is higher than at any time since 1967. All of the signs point to warâthe intention to go to war and the preparation for war. Arab efficiency may lead to one or more postponements, but war is coming.â9
Summary of the Test Case
Here is a positive example of the chief of staffâs performance concerning identifying a change and acting upon it. Elazarâs opposition to the head of Amanâs recommendation began a process that included elements of force buildupâfrom the immediate renewal of emergency mobilization procedures to planning steps and finally to pushing up the date for establishing units and expediting weapons procurementâall of which had a crucial impact on the IDFâs victory in the war. Since the intelligence analysis was conveyed directly to the political echelon (Prime Minister Meir, Dayan, and Galili), Elazar was allegedly âcoveredâ (i.e., he was not required to act), and in this light his initiative to raise the level of alert was commendable.
One major issue that would later have an impact on the IDFâs ability to contain the October 6, 1973, surprise attack by Egypt and Syria that launched the Yom Kippur War was the relative strength of the chief of staffâs position compared to that of Zeira, the powerful head of Aman. As it turned out, war did not break out during the Blue and White alert, a fact that bolstered Zeiraâs views vis-Ă -vis Elazar and the political echelon when Zeira repeated that the likelihood of war in the autumn was low. This is an example of the relations between the chief of staff and the head of Aman, which will be dealt with briefly in the bookâs conclusion.
Dan Shomron at the Outbreak of the First Intifada, 1987
The first Palestinian intifada (Arabic: uprising) began in December 1987 after twenty years of Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The intensity of the insurrection waned by 1991 and formally ended with the Israeli-Palestinian Oslo Accord in 1993. The focus here is on its beginning. Before initiating our discussion on the conduct of Chief of Staff Dan Shomron in the first intifada, it is important to note that this type of conflictâmass civil riotingâwas an unprecedented challenge for the IDF. Little wonder that the vocabulary employed in describing the IDFâs actions in the December 1987 events included âsurprise,â âconsternation,â and âconfusion,â especially as the unrest in Gaza spread to the West Bank. When Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin returned from abroad, Shomron and General Shmuel Goren, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), were waiting at the airport to update him on events. The general staff did not consider the riots of December 9â10 as something out of the ordinary and still believed that order would be restored in a few days.
The outbreak of the intifada caught all of the security forces off guard. The deputy head of Agam, General Giora Romm, publicly acknowledged this: âThe IDF was surprised by the riots in the West Bank and Gaza.â Aman, too, was caught off balance. It had not focused on dealing with an uprising, mass disturbances, or civil disobedience but rather on preventing terror. The IDF and the Shin Bet (Israelâs internal security agency, also called the Shabak) argued over who was responsible for gathering data and providing intelligence, since no one had defined which party was in charge of a general assessment in this area and no entity existed for dealing with it. The commander of Southern Command, Major General Yitzhak Mordechai, was the first to grasp what was happening in the Gaza Strip. He demanded immediate reinforcements. He wanted regulars sent to Gaza to deal with the new phenomenon. He was worried that the situation might deteriorate because of the lack of sufficient manpower. He did not want the troops on the ground facing thousands of rioters, lest they be forced to open fire. Mordechai transferred to the Gaza Strip a battalion of regulars from the Givati (Infantry) Brigade that was on training, despite the order that training could not be halted without permission from the chief of staff.10
In an interview, Mordechai claimed, âIt took Shomron some time to realize that a basic change had occurred on the ground.â According to Mordechai, Shomron âmade every effort to keep the troops to their training schedule and maintain their operational capability for war.â Mordechai felt that Shomronâs misreading of the situation compelled the commanders of the regional commands to pressure him to allocate troops and resources to quelling the intifada.11 The attitude of the Southern and Central Command generals vis-Ă -vis the chief of staffâs attitude toward the suspension of training and military education courses became an issue of contention. Shomron wanted to see the regular units prepare for war. He opposed any curtailment of the IDF commandersâ training programs because of routine security operations and unrest in the West Bank and Gaza. Furthermore, he regarded the events in the Gaza Strip as part of the Palestiniansâ periodical letting off steam. During his tour in Gaza on December 15, he spoke with commanders and soldiers and came away with the impression that the ...