Energy Systems Modeling and Policy Analysis

B K Bala

• Publisher: CRC Press
• Year: 2022
• Print ISBN: 9781032110998
• eBook ISBN: 9781000574364
• Topic: Technology & Engineering
• Subtopic: Electrical Engineering & Telecommunications
• Index: Technology & Engineering

Energy Systems Modeling and Policy Analysis covers a wide spectrum of topics including policy analysis and the optimal operational planning of integrated energy systems using a systems approach. This book details the importance of energy modeling and policy analysis, system dynamics and linear programming, modeling of energy supplies, energy demand, and environmental impact. Integrated energy systems at micro- and macro-levels, the application of simulation techniques for integrated rural energy systems, and integrated electric power systems/smart grids are covered as well.

Features:

• Covers topics such as modeling, optimization and control of energy systems, and data analysis collected using a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system
• Uses system dynamics methodology (based on control systems theory) as well as other modeling tools
• Focuses on energy and environmental issues
• Provides optimal operational planning and management of integrated electric power systems and smart grids
• Covers the simulated planning and management of integrated national electric power systems using system dynamics

This book is aimed at graduate students in electrical engineering, energy technology, microgrids, energy policy, and control systems.

1Introduction

DOI: 10.1201/9781003218401-1

1.1INTRODUCTION

Energy is needed to meet the subsistence requirement as well as to meet the demand for economic growth and development (Bala, 1997a, 1997b, 1998). Global economic growth for the period 2002–2030 is estimated at 3.2% per year, with China, India and Asian countries expected to lead the peak, and the population worldwide is put at more than 8 billion in 2030, up from 6.2 billion in 2002. To meet these requirements, the International Energy Agency predicts an energy demand rise of 59% between now and 2030. Figure 1.1 shows the projected global electricity consumptions for different regions of the world, which increases from 19895 TWh in 2007 to 42860 TWh in 2050, consistent with economic growth.

Two major supplies of energy for its use as fuels and for the production of electricity are oil and gas. Figure 1.2 shows the production projection of oil and gas. The world oil and gas production reached a peak of 30 billion barrels in 2010, starting from 1.5 billion barrels in 1930. Since oil and gas are non-renewable energy sources and are being depleted, and with production set to reach 12 billion barrels in 2050, this is a clear sign that there is an energy crisis and a serious need for alternative energy resources, such as renewable energies, including nuclear energy.

Figure 1.1World electricity consumption.

Figure 1.2World liquid oil and gas projections.

Per capita consumption of energy is a measure of physical quality of life (Bala, 1998). Though the regional average of energy consumption in Asia has increased in recent years, it is far below the world average. Figure 1.3 shows the relationship between physical quality of life and per capita total energy consumption. It may be noted from Figure 1.3 that the lower limit of energy consumption is 3000 kWh/year and reaches saturation at 14000 kWh/year. This means that 14000 kWh/year is the minimum upper limit of physical quality of life in order to lead a decent life.

Energy production and use are major sources of greenhouse gas emissions and may cause serious environmental impacts. These impacts, in turn, can threaten overall social and economic development. At regional and global levels, oil, gas and coal consumption may lead to acid rain, and most likely to global warming. At the local level, continued reliance on traditional biomass fuels for cooking in many developing countries such as Bangladesh can place added stress on farmlands, resulting in decreased relative humidity and environmental degradation (Bala, 2003).

Figure 1.3Relationship between physical quality of life and per capita total energy consumption.

South Asia is home to several of the most polluted cities, including Calcutta, Dhaka, Mumbai, Delhi and Karachi. However, total emissions in these regions account for a small fraction (3%) of global emissions, and these regions contribute only a small amount to global warming and climate change. Carbon emissions of some of the largest contributors are shown in Figure 1.4, and it is evident that China is the largest contributor to global warming. The contribution by Bangladesh towards global warming and climate change is a very small fraction (Warrick, 1996; Bala, 1997a, 1997b, 2006; Bala and Khan, 2003) and is only 5% of China’s contribution, but could be seriously affected by climatic change. However, emissions can be controlled through the application of a suitable carbon tax, and high tax levels would result in the substantial penetration of renewable energy technologies, such as solar energy technologies, in developing countries like Bangladesh.

Figure 1.4Greenhouse gas emissions for major economies, 1990–2030 (Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions, 2021). Data source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2017 and International Energy Agency, 2019)

The Third Assessment Report of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirmed that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of human activities, particularly from fossil fuel energy use, and that further change is inevitable. Natural ecosystems are already adapting to the change, although some are under threat, and it is evident that human health and habitats will be affected worldwide. Such climate change could also affect the present supplies of renewable energy sources and the performance and reliability of conversion technologies.

The European Commission has strongly supported the generation of green electricity in past decades, but the energy obtained from fossil fuels still prevails throughout the region. Bengochea and Faet (2012) reported that there exists a relationship between green energy, the price of fossil fuels and CO₂ emissions, implying that an increase in CO₂ leads to an increase in renewable energy supply.

We need energy security for sustainable development. Most of the definitions of energy security focus on energy supplies, particularly supplies of oil (Clawson, 1997). This supply-based focus has, as its cornerstones, reducing vulnerability to foreign threats or pressure, preventing a supply crisis from occurring, and minimizing the economic and military impact of a supply crisis once it has occurred. Energy security usually revolves around the concept of supply security, which means sustainable, reliable and adequate energy supply at a reasonable price. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) defines energy security as the availability of energy at all times in various forms, in sufficient quantities and at affordable prices, without an unacceptable or irreversible impact on the economy and the environment.

Energy security and climate change have been at the forefront of energy policy. The International Energy Agency (2007) reported that unless countries change their energy use policy, oil imports, natural gas and coal use, and greenhouse gas emissions threaten to undermine energy security and accelerate climate change. In addition, those who examine specific energy conservation or alternative energy technologies frequently observe a complementarity between the abatement of greenhouse gases and an increase in energy security (Farrell et al., 2006; Tyner, 2007). Although such complementarity can exist for individual technologies, policymakers need to make a trade-off between these two policy objectives and should choose a mix of individual technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance energy security. The policymakers need to model the energy systems and analyze the energy policies to select the optimal policy.

1.2 COMPLEXITY AND DYNAMICS OF ENERGY SYSTEMS

We live in a complex world that is always changing and we are confronted with complex technological, environmental, political and socio-economic problems that we need to understand and manage for sustainable development (Bala, 1998; Bala et al., 2017). In a global context, global warming and its impacts on agriculture, energy and the environment are debated seriously, and in reports on economic cycles that cause financial panic at regional and local levels, price fluctuations and energy insecurity in developing countries are just some of the problems of complex and dynamic systems.

In recent years, decision-makers in an increasing number of countries have realized that energy planning should be carried out in an integrated manner (Bala et al., 2014). Traditionally, the planning of oil, gas and electricity has been carried out independently. This approach is good provided the energies are cheap. Fuel price increase and fluctuations, and the sudden energy crisis as shown in Figure 1.5, as well as their contributions to air pollution and global warming, suggest a gradual transition to cheaper and pollution-free environmentally friendly energy sources and integrated energy systems is required. How can we understand the complexity and dynamics of fluctuations in prices and the supply of oil? Can we understand the complexity of integrated energy systems when coordinated planning is adopted in various energy subsectors such as electric power, oil, gas, coal and renewable energy resources? If the answer is yes, how can we do it? We need improved knowledge and analytical capabilities to understand and manage energy price volatility and reduce energy insecurity.

Figure 1.5Price fluctuations of oil, gas and coal in the international markets (Subramanian et al., 2018).

Indeed, we can understand and design management strategies of such complex systems, but we need some structures or guiding principles to understand and manage the complexity and changes of dynamic systems based on a systems approach that considers all systems rather than in isolation. The systems approach is a rational and rather intuitive approach that depends on some formalized methodologies consisting of methods of problem definition, dynamic hypothesis, modeling, policy analysis, etc., and theoretical techniques that are ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half-Title Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table of Contents
• Foreword
• Preface
• Author Biography
• 1 Introduction
• 2 Modeling and Simulation
• 3 Optimization Methods
• 4 Communication Techniques
• 5 Modeling of Energy Demand, Supply and Price
• 6 Energy Use and Environmental Impact
• 7 Modeling of Integrated Energy Systems
• 8 Modeling of Rural Energy Systems
• 9 Simulated Planning of Electric Power Systems
• 10 Operational Planning of Electrical Power Systems and Smart Grids
• Index