Vital Signs 2000

The Environmental Trends That Are Shaping Our Future

The Worldwatch Institute

• Publisher: Island Press
• Year: 2015
• eBook ISBN: 9781610916615
• Subtopic: Environment & Energy Policy

The global trends documented in Vital Signs 2000—from the rapid rise in the sales of energy-efficient compact fluorescent lamps to the worldwide overpumping of growndwater—will play a large role in determining the quality of our lives and our children's lives in the next decade.

Part ONE

Key Indicators

Food

Trends

Grain Harvest Falls

Lester R. Brown

World grain production in 1999 fell to 1,855 million tons, down 1 percent from the 1,871-million-ton harvest of the year before.¹ (See Figure 1.) The fall in the 1999 harvest marked the second consecutive annual drop from the all-time high of 1,879 million tons reached in 1997.² In per capita terms, production declined to 309 kilograms in 1999, a fall of some 10 percent from the historical high of 342 kilograms in 1984.³ (See Figure 2.)

Among the big three grains—wheat, rice, and corn—production of wheat and corn each fell by nearly 1 percent, while that of rice rose by just over 1 percent.⁴ (See Figure 3.) At 598 million tons in 1999, the corn harvest maintained its historically recent edge over wheat, which came in at 584 million tons.⁵

China maintains its position as the world’s leading grain producer: its harvest of 395 million tons exceeded the 333-million-ton harvest in the United States by some 19 percent.⁶ India, with a harvest of 185 million tons, ranked third.⁷ Combined, these three countries account for roughly half of the world grain harvest.⁸

The share of the world grain harvest used for feed remained essentially unchanged in 1999 at 37 percent.⁹ Stated otherwise, more than one third of the world grain harvest is consumed indirectly in the form of livestock products. Among the individual grains, almost the entire rice harvest is consumed directly as food. By contrast, though corn is a food staple in many countries in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, worldwide it is used largely as feed. Consumption of wheat is more evenly divided between food and feed. It is the dominant food staple in the west, and also a leading staple in China and India. In Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and the former Soviet Union, wheat is also widely used for feed.

Perhaps the most interesting contrast in grain trends during the decade just ended was that between the former Soviet Union and China. Grain output in the former Soviet Union was in a free-fall during the 1990s.¹⁰ Wheat production, for example, dropped from 102 million tons in 1990 to 66 million tons in 1999, a decline of one third.¹¹ Meanwhile, the coarse grain harvest dropped from roughly 103 million tons to 44 million tons, a staggering reduction of well over half, marking the first time in the modern era that a major industrial society has experienced such a sustained decline in food production.¹²

In China, by contrast, grain output during the 1990s went up by some 15 percent, climbing from 343 million to 395 million tons.¹³ Few could have anticipated 20 years ago, or perhaps even 10 years ago, that the economic fortunes of the two communist giants would diverge so sharply during the 1990s. While China is emerging as an economic superpower, most of the 17 republics of the former Soviet Union are deteriorating economically. There is no indication that the worsening state of agriculture in Russia, the largest republic, will be reversed in the near future. The combination of political paralysis, corruption, and inept leadership appears likely to continue for some time.

Neither overall production nor world grain trade patterns have changed much in the last two years. Over the last four years, world wheat trade has fluctuated between 118 million and 125 million tons.¹⁴ Trade in coarse gra...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Contents
• Acknowledgments
• Foreword
• Overview: The Acceleration of Change
• Part One: Key Indicators
• Part Two: Special Features
• Notes
• The Vital Signs Series
• The acclaimed series from Worldwatch Institute
• You Can Make a Difference