State of the World 2005

Redefining Global Security

The Worldwatch Institute

• Publisher: Island Press
• Year: 2015
• eBook ISBN: 9781610916349
• Subtopic: Environment & Energy Policy

In State of the World 2005, Worldwatch researchers explore underlying sources of global insecurity including poverty, infectious disease, environmental degradation, and rising competition over oil and other resources. Find out why terrorism is just symptomatic of a far broader set of complex problems that require more than a military response.

CHAPTER 1

Security Redefined

Michael Renner

A little more than a decade after the end of the cold war seemed to herald a new era of peace, security concerns are once more at the top of the world’s agenda. A heightened sense of insecurity, reflected as much in headlines as in opinion polls worldwide, is palpable. The September 11th terror attacks in the United States were no doubt a pivotal event. Subsequent bombings in countries from Spain to Kenya, Saudi Arabia to Russia, and Pakistan to Indonesia reinforced a widespread feeling of vulnerability. And the growing chaos in Iraq following the U.S.-led occupation feeds unease about the repercussions of a destabilized Middle East.

But terrorism is only symptomatic of a far broader set of deep concerns that have produced a new age of anxiety. Acts of terror and the dangerous reactions to them are like exclamation marks in a toxic brew of profound socioeconomic, environmental, and political pressures—forces that together create a tumultuous and less stable world. Among them are endemic poverty, convulsive economic transitions that cause growing inequality and high unemployment, international crime, the spread of deadly armaments, large-scale population movements, recurring natural disasters, ecosystem breakdown, new and resurgent communicable diseases, and rising competition over land and other natural resources, particularly oil. These “problems without passports” are likely to worsen in the years ahead. Unlike traditional threats emanating from an adversary, however, they are better understood as shared risks and vulnerabilities. They cannot be resolved by raising military expenditures or dispatching troops. Nor can they be contained by sealing borders or maintaining the status quo in a highly unequal world.¹

In a late 2003 Gallup International poll of some 43,000 individuals in 51 countries, twice as many respondents rated international security as “poor” as those who answered “good.” Almost half of those interviewed think the next generation will live in a less safe world, while only 25 percent said they expected an improvement. Similarly, a June 2003 poll of 2,600 “opinion leaders” in 48 countries found a broad sense of pessimism, with at least two thirds in every region of the world describing themselves as “dissatisfied” with the current world situation. And in a series of World Bank–facilitated consultations involving some 20,000 poor people in 23 developing countries, a large majority said they were worse off than before, had fewer economic opportunities, and lived with greater insecurity than in the past.²

The need for international cooperation has grown stronger in this new century, even as rifts and divides have opened up.

In sharp contrast to the cold war’s bipolar standoff involving nuclear arsenals and competing core ideologies, today’s security challenges tend to be more diffuse, less predictable, and more multidimensional. Fears of a violent showdown between two superpowers have given way to concerns about local and regional wars fought predominantly with small arms, post-conflict volatility, instability emanating from weak and failed states, and the rise of international criminal and terror networks. Yet some of the old perils still exist. Progress toward nuclear disarmament has ground to a halt, for instance, while the danger of nuclear and other highly lethal weapons spreading to a growing number of countries—or falling into the hands of extremist groups—looms.

The challenges the world faces are compounded by weak and corrupt public institutions, the lack of recourse to justice, and unconstitutional or irregular means of political change, such as coups d’état and revolts. And they are heightened by an uneven process of globalization that draws nations and communities together in often unpredictable ways that entail real risks for many and that allow extremist groups to operate more easily than in the past.³

The East-West confrontation that used to stand in the way of enhanced cooperation has given way to a more vexing North-South relationship marred by enormous imbalances of livelihood, wealth, and power. The sole remaining superpower has an increasingly uneasy and contentious relationship with the rest of the world. And the critical structural changes and innovations needed to generate effective global governance—proposals to reform the U.N. Security Council or create a much stronger U.N. environmental body—have fallen victim to political paralysis.

The need for international cooperation has thus grown stronger in this new century, even as new rifts and divides have opened up, provoked in part by the Iraq crisis. Yet Fred Halliday, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, warns that “the world appears further away than ever from addressing the fundamental issues confronting it, and to be moving ever more deeply into a phase of confrontation, violence, and exaggerated cultural difference.”⁴

Policies that seek security primarily by military means but fail to address underlying factors of instability will likely trigger a downward spiral of violence and instability, and quite possibly a collapse of international rules and norms. Policies derived from a new understanding of global security can avoid these dangers and promote constructive alternatives. A robust and comprehensive approach to creating a more stable world entails measures designed to stop environmental decline, break the stranglehold of poverty, and reverse the trend toward growing inequity and social insecurity that breeds despair and extremism. A fundamental shift in priorities is essential to accomplish these tasks. Ultimately, security must be universal.

The Roots of Insecurity

Awareness of the threats and challenges that cannot be resolved within the traditional framework of national security led a wide range of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), scholars, and others to refine and redefine our understanding of security over the past two decades. What is the object of security? What is the nature of the threats? Who is to provide security? And by what means? These questions and discussions gathered momentum after the end of the cold war. The core insights they led to are even more relevant today:

• Weapons do not necessarily provide security. This is true for adversarial states armed with weapons of such destructive power that no defense is possible. It is true in civil wars, where the easy availability of weapons empowers the ruthless but offers little defense for civilians. And it was true on September 11th, when a determined group of terrorists struck with impunity against the world’s most militarily powerful country.
• Real security in a globalizing world cannot be provided on a purely national basis. A multilateral and even global approach is needed to deal effectively with a multitude of transboundary challenges.
• The traditional focus on state (or regime) security is inadequate and needs to encompass safety and well-being for those living there. If individuals and communities are insecure, state security itself can be extremely fragile. Democratic governance and a vibrant civil society may ultimately be more imperative for security than an army.
• Nonmilitary dimensions have an important influence on security and stability. Nations around the world, but particularly the weakest countries and communities, confront a multitude of pressures. They face a debilitating combination of rising competition for resources, severe environmental breakdown, the resurgence of infectious diseases, poverty and growing wealth disparities, demographic pressures, and joblessness and livelihood insecurity.⁵

The pressures facing societies and people everywhere do not automatically or necessarily trigger violence. But they can translate into political dynamics that lead to rising polarization and radicalization. Worst-case outcomes are more likely where grievances are left to fester, where people are struggling with mass unemployment or chronic poverty, where state institutions are weak or corrupt, where arms are easily available, and where political humiliation or despair over the lack of hope for a better future may drive people into the arms of extremist movements.

Insecurity can manifest itself in ways other than violent conflict. The litmus test is whether the well-being and integrity of society are so compromised that they lead to possibly prolonged periods of instability and mass suffering. Measured by the number of victims and mass dislocations caused, the repercussions of intense poverty and other societal failures tend to loom far larger than outbreaks of armed conflict. Whereas about 300,000 people were killed in armed conflicts in 2000, for example, as many people die each and every month because of contaminated water or lack of adequate sanitation.⁶

In abstract terms, issues such as infectious disease, unemployment, or climate change may or may not constitute security challenges. But do they cross thresholds of magnitude or trigger dynamics that render them something more momentous? Alone or in combination with other factors, they may well create conditions that call into question the basic fabric of communities and nations. As Alyson Bailes, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, asks, “Which ‘hits’ can a society bounce back from relatively easily, and which are the ones that risk undermining its whole viability?” The task, then, is to enhance our understanding of the interactions and dynamics among these factors and the combinations that are likely to bring about destabilizing results.⁷

Natural resources are at the core of a number of conflicts. Throughout human history, big powers have repeatedly intervened in resource-rich countries, militarily and by other means, in order to control lucrative resources. The result has often been enduring political instability. Against the backdrop of surging demand for oil, geopolitical rivalries for preferential access are again intensifying among major importers. (See Chapter 6.)

The benefits and burdens of oil extraction, mining, and logging projects are often distributed quite unequally, triggering disputes with indigenous peoples across the planet. Resource wealth has also fueled a series of civil wars, with governments, rebels, and warlords in Latin America, Africa, and Asia clamoring over resources such as oil, metals and minerals, gemstones, and timber. The revenues derived from such commodities help pay for weapons and sustain wars that have had devastating consequences for civilians caught in the crossfire; fighting and looting shred civilian infrastructures, disrupt harvests, and prevent delivery of vital services.⁸

Disputes also arise over access to renewable natural resources such as water, arable land, forests, and fisheries. This is particularly the case among groups—such as farmers, nomadic pastoralists, ranchers, and resource extractors—who depend directly on the health and productivity of the resource base but have incompatible needs. Such tensions intensify with the growing depletion of natural resources and rising demand owing to population pressures and growing per capita consumption. Local violence in countries like Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Rwanda is in part driven by these factors.⁹

Water is the most precious resource. Both the quantity and quality are crucial for such fundamental human needs as food and health. Given population growth, nearly 3 billion people—40 percent of the projected world population—will live in water-stressed countries by 2015. Although there may not be any interstate water wars, as some have predicted, local disputes and clashes are likely to proliferate. (See Chapter 5.)¹⁰

Climate change is certain to sharpen a broad range of environmental challenges, thus intensifying many of these struggles. More frequent and intense droughts, floods, and storms will play havoc with harvests, undermine the habitability of some areas, escalate involuntary population movements, and severely test national and international institutions.

Different social groups and communities experience the effects of resource depletion and environmental degradation unevenly. These divergences can reinforce social and economic inequities or deepen ethnic and political fault lines. It is not a given that competition over scarce resources or the repercussions of environmental degradation will lead to armed conflict. But they often do sharpen hardships and burdens, heighten the desperation of those most affected, and reinforce the perception that disputes have a “zero-sum” nature. The challenge is to avoid such polarization and instead turn shared environmental problems into opportunities for conflict prevention and peacemaking. (See Chapter 8.)

A reliable supply of food is one of the most basic determinants of how secure or insecure people are. Food security is at the intersection of poverty, water availability, land distribution, and environmental degradation. But war and social disruptions also play an important role in some cases. And the proliferation of factory farming and the promotion of monocultures have triggered growing worries about the safety and quality of food supplies. (See Chapter 4.)

About 1.4 billion people, almost all of them in developing countries, confront environmental fragility. Of these, more than 500 million people live in arid regions, more than 400 million people eke out a meager living on soils of very poor quality, some 200 million small-scale and landless farmers are compelled to cultivate steep slopes, and 130 million people live in...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Worldwatch Institute Board of Directors
• Acknowledgments
• Contents
• List of Boxes, Tables, and Figures
• Foreword
• Preface
• State of the World: A Year in Review
• 1. Security Redefined
• 2. Examining the Connections Between Population and Security
• 3. Containing Infectious Disease
• 4. Cultivating Food Security
• 5. Managing Water Conflict and Cooperation
• 6. Changing the Oil Economy
• 7. Disarming Postwar Societies
• 8. Building Peace Through Environmental Cooperation
• 9. Laying the Foundations for Peace
• Notes
• The acclaimed series from Worldwatch Institute
• You Can Make a Difference