Chapter 1
Understanding the Stakes: Why We Should Address Chronic Absence
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Many teachers and other school staff suffer from initiative fatigue. As schools and districts work to address a multitude of academic and other priorities, it can be difficult to get the buy-in required for any initiative to succeed. This is especially true if turnover in leadership produces rapid changes in focus, causing some people to feel that initiatives are fleeting and have limited potential to create meaningful change. Although many people may acknowledge the difficulties created by frequent student absences, your team may experience resistance from staff members who feel that even this initiative is just "one more thing" that won't yield long-lasting improvements for them or their students. In this chapter we present research and other rationales to help answer the crucial question, "Why should we address chronic absence?" This information can help staff members understand that tackling attendance will positively affect academic and behavioral outcomes. The goal is to get your team to believe that this initiative is something that will significantly improve student outcomes, classrooms, and personal job satisfaction.
To begin, we summarize current findings on the prevalence and variability of rates of chronic absence. We also provide information on the negative effects of absenteeism that are supported by research and that we have heard repeatedly from educators across the United States. These effects occur for the student, the class and school, and the families, community, and society at large.
Read this chapter for a broad overview and confirmation of why it is important to invest in efforts to address absenteeism. This chapter has a heavy emphasis on citing the existing research base on chronic absenteeism for those of you who will be tasked to "make a case" to your district that this is a critical initiative for your school or district to tackle. Subsequent chapters focus less on theory and research and more on practical implementation strategies. You may want to return to this chapter when you work through Chapter 4, "Engaging and Supporting Staff in Attendance Efforts," as you determine what information to share with staff. You may also decide to select and share relevant information from this chapter with students, families, and your community.
The Prevalence of Chronic Absence in U.S. Schools
Until recently, it was unclear how widespread chronic absence was in schools across the United States. Based on data from six states that calculated and reported rates of chronic absence, Balfanz and Byrnes (2012) estimated that 10 to 15 percent of students, or roughly 5 to 7.5 million students, were chronically absent. The 2013ā2014 data set from the U.S. Department of Education Office for Civil Rights (2016) was the first to report nationwide absence rates. These data indicated that approximately 14 percent of the student populationāmore than 6.5 million studentsāmissed 15 days or more of school. Although this threshold is slightly lower than the 18 days of absence across a school year that is typically used to identify chronic absentees, it clearly indicates that far too many students are missing critical amounts of school. The following section provides key findings about the variability of absenteeism across different populations and schools.
Variations Across States and Within States and Districts
The data show that absenteeism varies significantly across states and within states and districts. Although absenteeism is widespread across the United States, certain geographic locations clearly have increased rates. The Office for Civil Rights found that 500 districts reported that 30 percent or more of their student body missed 15 days of school or more. Attendance Works and the Everyone Graduates Center (2017) noted that these districts were not evenly spread across the nation. State data ranged from 2 to 29 percent of schools having 30 percent or more of their student body absent 15 days or more. Furthermore, although nationwide data indicated that chronic absenteeism may be more likely in urban areas, individual states were more variable. For example, rates of chronic absence in California and Wyoming were higher in rural districts. Although researchers did not definitively attribute a cause to this variability, one key variable strongly correlated with absenteeism is rate of poverty. Districts and states with higher rates of poverty, regardless of whether they are urban, suburban, or rural, are likely to experience higher rates of chronic absence.
The Correlation Between Poverty and Absenteeism
Students who live in poverty are more likely to exhibit patterns of chronic absence (Attendance Works and the Everyone Graduates Center, 2017; Balfanz & Byrnes, 2012; Ginsberg, Chang, & Jordan, 2014). For example, in Nebraska, two-thirds of chronically absent students were found to be economically disadvantaged (Balfanz & Byrnes, 2012). In Utah, students from low-income homes (who received free or reduced lunch) were 90 percent more likely to be chronically absent than students who were not from low-income homes (Utah Education Policy Center, 2012). Balfanz and Byrnes (2012) conclude that one of the most effective ways to help get students out of situations of poverty is to get them to attend school each day.
Additional Trends
Note: Unless otherwise specified, the following findings are taken from the Office for Civil Rights Data Collection for 2013ā2014.
The following are a few additional trends to be aware of.
Absenteeism increases throughout middle and high school. Eleven percent of elementary students, 12.5 percent of middle school students, and 18.9 percent of high school students are chronically absent. These findings are similar to those from Balfanz and Byrnes (2012), who found that chronic absence gets steadily worse throughout middle school and high school. Balfanz and Byrnes also found that chronic absenteeism was high in kindergarten and 1st grade (approximately 10 percent), then became steadily better in grades 2 through 5, with a low of 5 percent of students in grade 5, according to data from multiple states and the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study of Kindergarten (ECLS-K).
Chronic absenteeism is more prevalent for specific minority groups. Across grades, 7.1 percent of Asian students, 12.7 percent white students, and 14.7 percent of Latino students missed 15 days or more in comparison with 22.5 percent of American Indian or Alaska Native students, 21.4 percent of Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander students, 17.3 percent of black students, and 16.4 percent of multiracial students. By high school, 20 percent or more of students who were not Asian or white were chronically absent: American Indian or Alaska Nativeā27 percent; Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islanderā25 percent; blackā23 percent; multiracialā21 percent; and Latinoā21 percent.
Chronic absenteeism is more prevalent for students with disabilities. Nineteen percent of students with disabilities were chronically absent, in comparison with 12.9 percent of students without disabilities.
There are no significant differences in chronic absence rates by gender. Approximately 14 percent of both male and female students were chronically absent.
Students who are highly mobile (foster children, children whose parents have migratory work, students who are homeless) are more likely to have problematic attendance. The Utah Education Policy Center (2012) found that mobile students (those who were unenrolled from one school and then reenrolled in another during a school year) were four times more likely, and homeless students were 2.5 times more likely, to be chronically absent than students who were not mobile or homeless.
How Irregular Attendance Negatively Affects Absent Students
Irregular attendance can have several damaging effects on students with frequent absences, including an increased likelihood of negative academic outcomes, possible exacerbation of problems with behavior and social-emotional aspects of school, and increased risk of negative behaviors and activities outside school. The next sections examine each of these possible effects.
Negative Academic Outcomes
Poorer student performance due to absenteeism begins as early as kindergarten and extends across grades, creating a cumulative effect. In analyses of data from the kindergarten cohort of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Romero and Lee (2007) found that students with greater absenteeism in kindergarten had the lowest academic performance in 1st grade. Students who missed 10 percent or more of the school year scored approximately 5 percentage points lower on reading performance, math performance, and measures of general knowledge than peers with low rates of absenteeism.
A study in California of three large urban districts examined 3rd grade scores on state tests in relation to students' historical attendance records from kindergarten and 1st grade. Applied Survey Research (2011) found that 64 percent of students who attended regularly in kindergarten and 1st grade (absent 5 percent or less of school days) received a score of proficient or better in reading at the end of 3rd grade. In comparison, only 17 percent of students who were chronically absent received a score of proficient or better. This finding is particularly alarming given that reading proficiency in 3rd grade is considered a critical milestone for long-term school success or failure. For example, researchers have found that students who do not read proficiently by the end of 3rd grade are four times more likely than their peers to drop out of school (Hernandez, 2011).
As soon as a child enters kindergarten, all families should receive information about the essential basic skills their child will learn in kindergarten. This information should emphasize that regular and repeated practice of skills such as phonemic awareness, phonics, and vocabulary in reading and one-to-one number correspondence in math is critical to set up their child for success. Even sporadic absences can cause their child to fall behind. You may need to help families understand that their children are no longer attending daycare and that ensuring regular attendance is one of the best things they can do to ensure their child's success in school and in life.
Students who are chronically absent have lower grade point averages and test scores. Controlling for student, classroom, school, and neighborhood characteristics, as well as past student performance, Gottfried (2010) found a positive relationship between the number of days the student was present at school and both GPA and standardized test results in the elementary and middle grades. This relationship was somewhat stronger for middle than elementary students and for mathematics than reading. A Georgia Department of Education report suggests that even a few days of missed school can make a difference on achievement outcomes. Based on attendance and state test data from a 2007 cohort of 9th graders, the report estimated that increasing average student attendance by just 3 percent (or 5 instructional days in a traditional 180-day school calendar) could have led to 10,000 more students passing the state reading test and 30,000 more students passing the state mathematics test (Barge, 2011). Students who reported missing three or more days of school in the month before testing for the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) scored more than a full grade level lower on the reading and math assessments than peers with no absences (Ginsberg, Chang, & Jordan, 2014).
Early absenteeism predicts later absenteeism. Multiple studies have found that children who are chronically absent in their earliest school years (preK through grade 1) continue to have attendance problems as they progress through school (Buehler, Tapogna, & Chang, 2012; Connolly & Olson, 2012; Ehrlich, Gwynne, Pareja, & Allensworth, 2013). For example, Ehrlich and colleagues (2013) found that students who were chronically absent in preschool were five times more likely to be chronically absent in 2nd grade than their peers, and that almost a third of students who were chronically absent in both preschool and kindergarten continued to have attendance problems by 2nd grade. A longitudinal study that followed students in Baltimore City Public Schools in Maryland from 6th grade through high school found that the 20 percent of students who missed the most days were cumulatively absent, on average, almost one full year (Baltimore Education Research Consortium, 2011).
Generally, as students accumulate missed instructional days throughout their school career, their risk for academic failure increases. Each successive year of chronic absenteeism is related to significant and compounded risk of reduced learning (Chang & Romero, 2008; Easton & Engelhard, 1982; Ehrlich et al., 2013). For example, in one study, students who were chronically absent in both kindergarten and 1st grade scored the lowest on 5th grade reading achievement testsālower than students who were chronically absent in only one of these grades (Buehler et al., 2012).
Students with high levels of absenteeism are at greater risk for dropping out than peers with regular attendance. Studies have shown that students who eventually drop out of school are absent more often than other students and that absenteeism is predictive of dropout beginning as early as 1st grade (Alexander, Entwisle, & Horsey, 1997; Balfanz & Byrnes, 2012; Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver, 2007; Hammond, Linton, Smink, & Drew, 2007; Neild, Balfanz, & Herzog, 2007; Rumberger & Thomas, 2000). In fact, research has consistently identified chronic absenteeism as one of the strongest predictors of dropping out of schoolāstronger even than suspensions, test scores, and being older than peers (Byrnes & Reyna, 2012).
Longitudinal outcomes illustrate just how much attendance in early grades influences graduation rates. A retrospective analysis of data from 790 students in Baltimore City Public Schools shows a clear and significant relationship between attendance in 1st grade and graduation outcomes. Students who eventually dropped out of school missed an average of 16 days in 1st grade, compared with graduates, who averaged about 10 absences. For each additional day that a student was absent in 1st grade, the likelihood of dropping out increased by about 5 percentage points (Alexander, Entwisle, & Horsey, 1997).
For students in middle and high school, changes in attendance can be as predictive of on-time graduation as test scores (Kieffer, Marinell, & Stephenson, 2011). A statewide analysis of attendance data in Utah found that students who are chronically absent during any year between 8th and 12th grade are 7.4 times more likely to drop out than students who regularly attend school (Utah Education Policy Center, 2012).
As Sheldon and Epstein (2004) conclude, "Studies of dropout show that leaving school is merely the culminating act of a long withdrawal process from school forecast by absenteeism in the early grades" (p. 40). The gradual process of disengagement is reflected in outcome variables such as chronic absenteeism and eventual dropping out of school. A lack of interest in school may lead to students being chronically absent as a part of the dropping-out processāthey attend school less and less until they are faced with academic failure or decide to stop coming altogether.
Problems with Behavior and Social-Emotional Aspects of School
Students may act out due to frustration. Falling behind in their classes due to absenteeism can lead to a dangerous pattern of negative behavior and exclusion. Picture the following vicious cycle: A student acts out due to frustration with academic or social difficulties in classes. If the behavior is serious, it leads to exclusion from class and school activities. The student's absence leads to further frustration upon the student's return to class or school, which can then perpetuate the cycle of exclusion. In many cases, frustration can lead to more withdrawal and absences from school (Finn, 1989).
Students who are frequently absent from school experience fewer opportunities to build positive relationships with adults. School connectedness is one of the critical factors that has been identified as leading to success or failure in school (Fredericks, Blumenfeld, & Paris, 2004). A defining feature of connectedness is the quality of a student's interactions and relationships with adult staff members. Students who are frequently absent may find it difficult to build meaningful connections with staff members. Furthermore, some staff may express frustration or even overt anger toward a student who is frequently absent, causing a further breakdown in the quality of that student's relationships.
In addition, effectively addressing absenteeism issues often requires a partnership between the student's parents and the school. When a student is frequently absent, it is common for school personnel to make judgments about the parents (e.g., "They just don't care about their child's education"), and parents may feel frustration toward the school (e.g., "They aren't addressing the problems that make my child want to stay home" or "They keep suspending my child and putting my job in jeopardy"). These judgments and adversarial relationships can make it increasingly difficult to help the student tackle an attendance problem.
Students who are chronically absent may not develop behavioral and social-emotional skills necessary for success in school and life. Students who are chronically absent tend to report a lower self-concept of their academic ability and lower levels of self-esteem in general than their peers who regularly attend schoo...