Probabilistic Risk and Hazard Assessment

Proceedings of the conference, Newcastle, NSW, Australia, 22-23 September 1993

R.E. Melchers, M.G. Stewart

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2022
• Print ISBN:
  9789054103493
• eBook ISBN:
  9781351421638
• Topic: Technology & Engineering
• Subtopic: Civil Engineering
• Index: Technology & Engineering

Highlights the multi-disciplinary nature of probabilistic risk and hazard assessment procedures. Topics covered include: Hazard scenario analyses (e.g. HAZOP, FMEA); probabilistic risk assessments; consequence modelling; structural reliability; human error; uncertainty analyses; and risk assessment. Topics are related to the design, construction & operation of chemical & process plants; nuclear facilities; bridges; buildings; offshore structures; dams.

A practical method to assess time-dependent structural system reliability

Chun Q. Li & R.E. Melchers

Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, N.S.W., Australia

ABSTRACT: Time-dependent structural system reliability problems are those in which the applied loads are modelled as stochastic processes, and the structural resistances are changing (usually deteriorating) with time and/or loading or both. Although the state-of-the-art approaches in time-dependent structural system reliability analysis are quite successful, it has been noted that the development of these approaches has not yet reached the stage that practising engineers are able to employ time-dependent reliability theory in their design work. The problem is that time-dependent reliability theories have not been simplified significantly for practical design purposes, and that the formulation of the problem is too mathematical. The aim of this paper is to introduce a practical, relatively simple method to estimate time-dependent structural system reliability for realistic engineering structures, with the reliability analysis based on the reliability of the structural components which form a collapse mechanism. The proposed method is practical and simple since it avoids the necessity of using limit state functions for the structure as a whole, as is required in other approaches. In addition, the mathematical concepts and the formulation have been simplified by using only second moment representation for both time-invariant and time-variant parts. An example is given to illustrate the method.

1 INTRODUCTION

Time-dependent structural system reliability problems are those in which the applied loads are modelled as stochastic processes, and the structural resistances are changing (usually deteriorating) with time and/or loading or both. Recently time-dependent reliability approaches have been accorded considerable attention. To some extent, the state-of-the-art approaches in time-dependent structural system reliability analysis are quite successful (see, e.g., Madsen and Tvedt, 1990, Li and Melchers, 1993a). However, it has been noted that the development of these approaches has not yet reached the stage where practising engineers are able to employ time-dependent reliability theory in their design procedures. For example, although structural reliability theory has been incorporated in design code calibration, in practice, the failure probability for the structure as a whole (i.e., for the structural system) remains unknown after the design work has been completed. In the author’s view, the problem is that time-dependent structural system reliability theories have not yet been simplified significantly for the practical design purposes.

The major problem, however, is possibly that in computation of the outcrossing rate and hence the time-variant failure probability for the structure in current approaches, the limit state functions for the structure must be known beforehand (see, e.g., Melchers, 1987). It appears that there does not exist any other approach to calculate the fai...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table of Contents
• Foreword
• Maximising the usefulness of risk assessment
• On the treatment of uncertainty information in PRA
• An overview of the applicability of PRA techniques to the design of offshore platforms and associated marine operations
• Motorways and chemical plants - Risk interaction
• Probabilistic analysis in traffic accident risk assessment
• Reconciling risk criteria in radiation protection and land use planning
• Source term modelling of chlorine release inside buildings
• Risk based guidelines for the use of remote impounding basins
• VRJTankheat: A thermal model of deluge cooling water rates for atmospheric storage tanks
• A risk-based approach to the characterisation of mine waste rock embankments
• Case studies in probabilistic risk assessment
• A case study in New South Wales coal mining - Regulatory and industry applications of Participative Risk Assessment
• Probabilistic assessment of pipeline service life based on pitting corrosion leaks
• Risk assessment in the development of serviceability based design criteria for small buildings
• The use of software based qualitative risk assessment methodologies in industry
• Probability of death and quantification of the value of life
• Implications of varying probability in fault tree analysis
• Dealing with model uncertainty in Quantified Risk Assessment
• Evaluation and control of human error in the management of engineering systems
• Incorporating human error in risk assessment
• Human error and human reliability for building construction tasks
• Safety management systems
• Assessment of the safety integrity of programmable electronic systems
• A practical method to assess time-dependent structural system reliability
• Practical fire risk management
• Probabilistic risk acceptance and safety standards for architectural glazing
• Society, tolerable risk and the ALARP principle
• Author index