Literature, Social Wisdom, and Global Justice

Developing Systems Thinking through Literary Study

Mark Bracher

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2022
• Print ISBN:
  9781032247687
• eBook ISBN:
  9781000580334
• Topic: Education
• Subtopic: Higher Education

This book responds to the pressing and increasingly recognized need to cultivate social wisdom for addressing major problems confronting humanity. Connecting literary studies with some of the biggest questions confronted by researchers and students today, the book provides a practical approach to thinking through, and potentially solving, global problems such as poverty, inequality, crime, war, racism, classism, environmental decline, and climate change.

Bracher argues that solving such problems requires "systems thinking" and that literary study is an excellent way to develop the four key cognitive functions of which systems thinking is composed, which are causal analysis, prospection/strategic planning, social cognition, and metacognition.

Drawing on evidence-based learning theory, as well as the latest research on systems thinking and its four cognitive functions, the book provides a comprehensive and detailed explanation of how these advanced thinking skills can be developed through literary study, illustrating the process with numerous examples from major works of literature.

In explaining the nature and importance of these thinking skills and the ability of literary study to develop them, this book will be of value to literature teachers and students from introductory to advanced levels, and to anyone looking to develop better problem-solving and decision-making skills.

1Systems Thinking as the Core of Social Wisdom

DOI: 10.4324/9781003280019-2

Wisdom researchers have proposed various capabilities and functions as constitutive of wisdom,¹ but none have focused on the key function that is necessary for solving the major problems confronting humanity—namely, causal understanding. I propose that causal understanding is the core of social wisdom. Both the commitment and the ability to make the world a better place begin with an awareness of the interconnectedness of all things. But the commitment and especially the ability both require more than just an awareness of this interconnection: they require an understanding of exactly how things are interconnected. And the most important and consequential way in which things are interconnected is through cause-and-effect relationships. More specifically, the two basic tasks that must be accomplished for wise decision-making are “backward” causal reasoning, or causal analysis, and “forward” causal reasoning, or prospection and strategic planning. “Decision making,” as psychologists Steven Sloman and David Lagnado observe, “is all about causal analysis,” insofar as “decisions concern actions that lead to consequences” (p. 231). “Causal principles,” as Sloman puts it,

are the most reliable bases for judgment and action we have. … Causality … tells us … what to expect when we take action. … Causal relations tell you how you get there from here.

pp. 19, 52, 25

As Sloman and Philip Fernbach explain,

You need to engage in causal reasoning to identify the problem and to figure out what to do about it. … We reason both forward and backward. … Reasoning backwards is reasoning from effects to causes. Doctors use it to diagnose the cause of symptoms and mechanics do it to diagnose what’s wrong with your car. … Forward reasoning is thinking about how causes produce effects. We use it to predict the future.

pp. 57–58

Identifying all the significant causes of a problem and all the significant effects that will be caused by various actions one might take to counteract the problem is the key to maximizing flourishing and minimizing harm for all parties, now and in the future.

These two basic causal-reasoning tasks have been almost totally ignored by wisdom research to date. Their importance has been recognized, however, by the field of systems thinking, which emphasizes backward causal reasoning, or systems analysis—that is, the systematic identification of all types and levels of causes of a problem—and prospection and strategic planning, or forward causal reasoning, as essential for problem-solving (see Meadows; Stroh). Like the wisdom described by Wilhelm and Novak, systems thinking begins with an awareness of the interconnectedness of all things, but it adds the crucial recognition that, as Pascal put it, “everything … is cause and effect, … and all is held together by a natural though imperceptible chain which binds together things most distant and most different” (qtd. in Mella, p. v). Since “reality is an interpenetration of (ever-larger) systems” (Mella, p. 10), and “all real systems are causal” (Fieguth, p. 50)—that is, “unitary set[s] of variables interconnected by causal relations” (Mella, p. 22)—systems thinking proceeds by “always try[ing] to identify the causes,” always “searching for the causal chains” (Mella, pp. 25, 12; see also Cabrera et al.).

Systems thinking is especially crucial for addressing the most pressing problems confronting humanity, including poverty, inequality, war, terrorism, nationalism, racism, classism, environmental degradation, species extinction, and climate change (see, e.g., Boylston; Fieguth; Ghosh; Stroh; Thibodeau et al.; Tranquillo), because a fundamental common feature of these problems is their systemic nature: they are the result not of simple causes that can be identified and addressed in isolation from other causes, but rather of multiple, complex networks of causality (i.e., systems) interacting with each other (Randle and Stroink; Thibodeau et al.). Both diagnosis and intervention in such problems require a comprehensive understanding of the complex causal networks in which the problem—be it climate change, a pandemic, systemic racism, political polarization, or whatever—is enmeshed. Systems thinking aims for long-term, “definitive solutions” rather than “quick fixes” that simply treat a problem’s symptoms and thus often exacerbate the problem in the long run, and such solutions require identifying and addressing not just the immediate, proximal causes of the problem but rather its distal and root causes, and prospecting not only the immediate but also the long-term consequences of possible responses (Mella, pp. 204–212, 197, 231). Wise decisions for optimal problem-solving, whether in one’s personal life, in one’s job, or in the public sphere, thus require highly developed capabilities of causal analysis and prospection, the core functions of systems thinking.

Causal Analysis and System Mapping

The first step in solving a problem is causal analysis (i.e., backward causal reasoning): identifying what is causing the problem. For complex problems, this requires system mapping, which means identifying all the multiple causes of a problem and mapping their effects and interactions. Such system mapping is crucial for solving problems because the causes are points of possible intervention: any solution to a problem must involve eliminating, reducing, or counteracting one or more of its causes. Most serious problems have multiple causes, including not only immediate (i.e., proximal) and obvious ones but also spatially and/or temporally distant (i.e., distal) causes, and an effective response to such a problem requires discerning the full system of causes that is producing it. Most importantly, system mapping requires identifying the role of root causes such as social systems and structures and material and geographical conditions—and also systems of thought, or mindsets, which are both causes and consequences of these social and material factors (see Meadows, pp. 162ff; Stroh).

Failure to recognize significant causes—especially root causes such as social systems, natural systems, and systems of thought—is a major reason why attempted solutions often fail. Such is the case, for example, with prescientific efforts to prevent disease, earthquakes, floods, droughts, crop failures, and so on by appealing to supernatural beings that were thought to be the immediate cause of these problems. These efforts, which included not only expensive rituals, institutions, and edifices but also terrible practices of human exploitation and even human sacrifice, failed because they were based on a faulty causal understanding, one that attributed these phenomena to supernatural agents—as well as, oftentimes, to human (mis)deeds that were believed to have caused the gods to cause these natural disasters. Fortunately, today science, which is devoted to the systematic identification of causes, has succeeded in uncovering the true causes of these phenomena and thus reducing, if not totally eliminating, efforts to counteract false causes in these cases. Unfortunately, there are domains in which large segments of the general populace still operate in ignorance—or denial—of the key causes of problems. Global warming is a prime example. Less obvious, but more widespread, is the failure to identify and address key causes of problematic human behaviors (e.g., substance abuse, crime, violence, war, terrorism, ethnocentrism, colonialism, and imperialism) and life outcomes (e.g., inequality, poverty, homelessness, unemployment).

Identifying the role of root causes such as social and economic systems, material and geographical systems, and the cognitive and neurological systems that both produce and are produced by these social and material systems is no simple task, and without training, such mapping is not automatic and rarely occurs with sufficient rigor and comprehensiveness. Many people focus on one or two immediate and obvious causes and ignore the more distal and root causes of these immediate causes (Burnell; Dawidowicz; Richmond; Rottman et al.; Sweeney and Sterman). A prominent example is the excessive use of force against Black people by police officers in the United States. While the immediate cause is the officers themselves who engage in such behavior, the deeper causes are to be found in multiple suboptimal systems, such as systems of admission to police academies that fail to detect and screen out applicants with racist or overly aggressive tendencies; systems of instruction in police academies that fail to train candidates to recognize and control their own and their colleagues’ anger and aggressive impulses; and systems of evaluation and discipline that fail to detect and prevent repeated actions of excessive aggression by officers. Beyond these systems, there lie larger cultural and social systems that contribute in multiple ways to the construction and maintenance of racist stereotypes, which portray Black men as dangerous and violent but fail to recognize the threats and dangers many of these men face at every moment of their lives, not least from white police officers. And at the root of this general failure on the part of white people to recognize the ubiquitous systemic threats to Black people’s physical, material, social, and psychological well-being, and to understand the fear, anger, depression, and physical maladies that these threats can cause, there lies the failure of the nation’s education systems to instruct students in key facts concerning the causes of people’s behavior, character, and life outcomes—namely, the fact that people’s behaviors, character, and life outcomes are ultimately caused by forces external to them and beyond their control, chief among which are physical, social, and psychological/neurological systems.

In order to begin to eliminate racist policing—and systemic racism in general—it is necessary to understand this complex network of causes that produce unequal treatment of, and results for, Black people. And beyond that, it is necessary to recognize all the other causes, beyond white people’s behavior toward Black people, that produce unequal outcomes for Black people. This requires comprehensively and accurately mapping all such cause–effect relationships operating within and between the social systems that contribute to unequal racial outcomes. These systems include, for example, the banking system, which has historically produced de facto discrimination against Black people on the basis of their zip code rather than their skin color; the judicial and penal systems, which have discriminated on the basis of the type of illegal substance (e.g., crack vs. powder cocaine) that a defendant is convicted of possessing; and the education system, which has discriminated on the basis of test scores and community property values, which results in much greater funding for schools in wealthy white communities and hence better education for white students. Addressing systemic racism further requires recognizing how underfunded schools and other factors cause lower levels of education for Black students, on average, which contributes to higher unemployment, which leads to higher rates of poverty and criminal activity, which then make employment still more difficult, in a reinforcing causal loop, or vicious circle, of cause and effect. And in another reinforcing causal loop, greater poverty among Black children subjects them to greater hunger and stress, which makes it more difficult for them to concentrate and learn in school, thus contributing to lower educational achievement, which in turn puts them at a disadvantage in securing a good job, which then makes them more susceptible to poverty, and so on. Mapping such complex networks of cause and effect is essential for identifying possible points where one might intervene to address the problem of systemic racism.

Prospection and Strategic Planning

Prospection, or forward causal reasoning, is the second key cognitive function necessary for producing wise decisions. Prospection is “the mental process of projecting and evaluating future possibilities and then using these projections for the guidance of thought and action” (Railton, “Introduction,” p. 6), and as the psychologist Martin E. P. Seligman notes, it is “essential for wisdom” (Seligman and Tierney, p. c). Prospection involves foreseeing the consequences of possible responses to a problem, which is key to effective strategic planning. After identifying the causes of a problem, one must identify possible interventions in the system of causes and foresee the likely consequences—both intended and unintended, immediate and long-term, for all parties involved—of each possible intervention, in order to identify the intervention(s) that would most probably maximize flourishing and minimize harm for all parties, now and in the future. As Mella declares,

Deciding means identifying and evaluating the various alternatives … that take into account the results that each will allow us to obtain. … We must judge an action on the basis of its global effects and long-term effects.

pp. 201, 269–270

“Predicting the effects of action requires reasoning about how causes produce effects,” as Sloman and Fernbach observe, and “our thought processes, our language, and our emotions are all designed to engage causal reasoning to help us to act in reasonable ways” (pp. 11–12).

Like inadequate causal analysis, inadequate prospection often results in faulty responses to problems. In addition to producing actions that fail to attain their goal, faulty prospection can also lead to actions that, in attaining their goal, cause serious unintended negative consequences, for other parties and/or oneself, in the present and/or in the future. As Maxwell observes,

Almost all the grave global problems that threaten our future have arisen because … we have failed to anticipate undesirable consequences of major new social endeavors, made possible by science and technology or, when such anticipations have been made, we have failed to act—to modify what we do—so as to avoid experiencing these undesirable consequences.

“How Wisdom,” p. 366

A prime example of the negative consequences of inadequate prospection is the centuries-long environmental destruction that has resulted from various large-scale collective activities deriving from innovations that promised, and in most cases delivered, significant improvements in human well-being. Such activities include the use of wood for shelter, as well as for fire to produce light and heat for comfort and cooking—uses that have for centuries been contributing to the deforestation of the planet. Another example is irrigation, which, while contributing to an increase in food production, has also caused the depletion of aquifers as well as the destruction of ecosystems resulting from the construction of dams. Mining to extract coal, minerals, and precious stones from the earth has also disrupted ecosystems and polluted water. A prominent example is the extraction of otherwise inaccessible natural gas through fracking: the pressurized pumping of chemicals deep into the earth, which produces toxic wastewater that then pollutes drinking water. Other instances of failed prospection include manufacturing processes that have exploited millions of people and/or produced products that have poisoned countless individuals through exposure to toxic chemicals and radiation. In all these cases, and many others as well, decision-makers have been focused almost exclusively on short-term benefits and have given little thought to possible long-term consequences—in contrast to many indigenous peoples in the Americas who evaluated present actions in light of their possible consequences seven generations into the future (Meadows, p. 182).

In the social sphere, lack of adequate prospection is one reason why two historical attempts to combat systemic racism in the United States—namely, school desegregation and affirmative action—have been less than optimally successful. A major shortcoming in these policies was the failure to adequately anticipate the white backlash that their implementation produced. The decision-makers who launched the US-led invasions on Afghanistan and Iraq likewise failed to adequately anticipate the “blowback,” as Chalmers Johnson terms it in a book that documents many failures of prospection in US policy, that the invasions would cause, which included the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

Examples of more adequate prospection in US public policy include the GI Bill, which provided college tuition for World War II veterans; the Marshall Plan, which provided desperately needed aid to Germany following WWII; the use of Environmental impact assessments, which require a systematic identification of negative environmental consequences that would result from proposed construction projects; and also the work of the now defunct Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, which was established to provide similar assessments of the impact of new or expanding technologies and propose policies to avoid problems, and which was disbanded by a Republican Congress in the 1990s because its findings often revealed negative consequences of the Republicans’ political agenda.

Causal analysis and prospection thus constitute the core of wise decision-making. If people rigorously and comprehensively perform these two systems-thinking functions, then they will produce wise responses to problems—including US policies such as Social Security, the GI Bill, the Marshall Plan, Medicare, Medicaid, and free K–12 education. This is not to say that the adequate performance of system-mapping and prospection is always an easy task. Indeed, it is often quite difficult, and not infrequently impossible. In particular, systems thinking will not automatically solve all problems or provide answers to dilemmas regarding the distribution of sacrifices and benefits among different parties, or between the present and the future. But the bett...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half-Title Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Dedication
• Contents
• List of Figures
• Acknowledgments
• Introduction
• 1 Systems Thinking as the Core of Social Wisdom
• 2 How to Educate for Wisdom: Developing Mental Models of Causality
• 3 Developing Mental Models of Causality by Reading Literature
• 4 Principles of a Wisdom-Cultivating Literary Pedagogy
• 5 Faulty Causal Analysis and Its Harmful Consequences
• 6 Causal Analysis I: Proximal, Distal, and Root Causes of Problems
• 7 Causal Analysis II: System Openness and Dynamism
• 8 Causal Analysis III: Causal Loops
• 9 Faulty Prospection and Its Harmful Consequences
• 10 Developing Adequate Prospection
• 11 Social Cognition I: Situational Causes of Behavior and Life Outcomes
• 12 Social Cognition II: Environmental Causes of Character
• 13 Social Cognition III: Human Nature as a Root Cause of Character
• 14 Metacognition: Developing an Accurate Mental Model of Oneself
• References
• Index