Russian Economic Development over Three Centuries

New Data and Inferences

Masaaki Kuboniwa, Yasushi Nakamura, Kazuhiro Kumo, Yoshisada Shida, Masaaki Kuboniwa, Yasushi Nakamura, Kazuhiro Kumo, Yoshisada Shida

• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
• Year: 2019
• Print ISBN: 9789811384288
• eBook ISBN: 9789811384295
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: International Business
• Index: Business

This book aims to provide a comprehensive statistical picture of the Russian economic development covering the Imperial, Soviet, and New Russian periods. The authors have reconstructed Russian socio-economic statistics from both published and archival materials. The book gives concise descriptions as well as new insights on the Russian economic development. Compiled such that estimations by the authors are kept to a minimum and extensive explanations and notes on the sources, the definitions, the statistical methodologies, the problems and inconsistencies of the original data, and the pitfalls of interpreting the time series are given makes this a standard reference book of the Russian economic history. It will be of value to economists, scholars of collectivist economics, and scholars of Russia and the Soviet experience.

© The Author(s) 2019

M. Kuboniwa et al. (eds.)Russian Economic Development over Three Centurieshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8429-5_1

Begin Abstract

1. Introduction

Masaaki Kuboniwa¹ and Kazuhiro Kumo¹

(1)

Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo, Japan

Masaaki Kuboniwa (Corresponding author)

Email: [email protected]

Kazuhiro Kumo

Email: [email protected]

Keywords

Historical statisticsImperial RussiaTerritorial transformationGDPLong-term series

End Abstract

1.1 Purpose of the Book

The purpose of this book is to provide long-term Russian economic statistics from 1860 to around 2015, which serve as basic material for analyzing economic development, in accordance with the framework of the System of National Accounts (SNA ). The research target, “Russia,” involves three geographically and periodically different countries or territories: the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and modern Russia (the Russian Federation). The Russian Empire or Imperial Russia was an empire that existed across Europe, Asia, and North America from 1721 until 1917. In this book, we explore the economic growth of the Russian Empire between 1860, just before the liberation of the serfs, and 1913, leading into World War I. The Russian Empire was replaced by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics or the Soviet Union that existed as a socialist state until 1991. Its largest republic was the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) or, simply, the Russian Republic. Today’s Russia or the Russian Federation, with the territory of the Russian Republic, assumed all of the external assets (credits and debits) of the Soviet Union.

This book is concerned with Russia, which has a unique history, with two revolutions in 1917 and 1991. Follow-up of the statistical development of Russia, which was exposed to two world wars and two revolutions with system transformations and transition recessions, also suffers from unique difficulties. Furthermore, there were large territorial changes that did not occur in Japan or other countries. A simplified diagram of Russia’s territorial changes over time or in a period is shown in Fig. 1.1 (detailed description and illustration of territorial changes are described in the next section). In terms of geographical scope, the Soviet Union includes present-day Russia as its subset, while the Russian Empire encompasses the Soviet Union. The territory of present-day Russia or the Russian Republic has formed the core region of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. In this book’s statistics series on Imperial Russia, Finland is excluded, whereas Poland is included. The main theme of our work is intended to focus on present-day Russian territory that has formed the basis of Russia over time and to develop its long-term economic statistics over 150 years. However, in this book, only for population demographics, we are purely implementing this research policy. It is primarily necessary to grasp institutions—fiscal, financial, and trade movements—that are meaningful within the frame of one independent country; therefore, we are concentrating on that task in this book. Regarding production statistics and gross domestic product (GDP) by industry of the Russian Empire period, we focused on the statistical development and estimation of the entire Imperial Russia due to data constraints. The GDP of present-day Russia’s territory during the Imperial period was estimated by dividing the GDP of the Russian Empire according to the proportion of the population. In addition, it is assumed that the GDP growth rate of present-day Russia’s territory during the period of the Russian Empire is the same as the growth rate of the entire Russian Empire. In this case, since the population growth rate is different for each territory, per capita GDP growth rates differ by territory. It is also possible to adjust the real GDP level in present-day Russia’s territory according to the population ratio of present-day Russia to the entire Russian Empire over time. In this case, GDP growth rates in present-day Russia’s territory and the territory of the entire Russian Empire will differ according to differences in their respective population growth rates. In this case, the per capita GDP growth rates will be the same in both territories. Since production and GDP in the Soviet era were estimated in the territory of the Russian Republic, estimated results are well linked with those of present-day Russia.

Fig. 1.1

Territories: Russian Empire, Soviet Union, and present Russia. Notes: Russian Empire = Soviet Union + Poland + Finland (note the year of belonging of Baltic three countries and Kaliningrad to the Soviet Union). Soviet Union = Russian Republic (present Russia) + other republics (note the year of Russia’s absorption of Crimea and Sevastopol). Source: Prepared by the author

1.2 Territorial Transformation

Changes in the territory of Russia that is the subject of this book are traced below. We will start with the territory of 1914, prior to World War I, when the Russian Empire was in its last period of stability. This is shown in Fig. 1.2. After that, the territory changed as described below.

Fig. 1.2

Russian Empire (1914). Note: The gray zones indicate the territory as of each period. Source: Prepared by Kazuhiro Kumo and Yukiko Hama

During World War I, the frontline on the eastern front between the Russian and German empires advanced deeply into the Russian territory, with a vast area including Poland and the Baltics coming under German occupation. Furthermore, the outbreak of the Russian revolution in October 1917 and the ensuring chaos strengthened the movements toward independence in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia, which had been along the eastern front. Amid the chaos of the revolution, the Ukrainian People’s Republic, which had parted ways with the Bolsheviks, made peace with the German empire and advanced further militarily, putting the Bolsheviks in a tough predicament.

In March 1918, the Brest-Litovsk treaty concluded between the German, Austro-Hungarian, and Ottoman empires led to peace in which the Bolsheviks conceded substantially to Germany. As a result, some of the territory of the Soviet Russian Republic (known by this name from November 1917 to July 1918), formed as successor to the bulk of the territory of the Russian Empire in the October revolution, was split off (together with a part of imperial German territory) to form the Republic of Poland. This resulted in the separation from Russia of the Kingdom of Poland, a part of the Russian Empire of which the Czar was recognized as monarch. Similarly, the Grand Duchy of Finland, which also had recognized the Czar as its monarch, gained independence as a result of the Paris peace talks. Regions on the Baltic coast that also were within the territory of imperial Russia—Estrane and Livland ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Front Matter
• 1. Introduction
• 2. Characteristics and Development of State Statistics
• 3. Population
• 4. Labor
• 5. Agriculture
• 6. Industry
• 7. Money and Finance
• 8. State Budget
• 9. Foreign Trade
• 10. Supplement: Soviet Foreign Trade Earnings Revisited
• 11. Gross Domestic Products
• 12. Estimating GDP and Foreign Rents of the Oil and Gas Sector in the Soviet Union and Present-Day Russia
• Back Matter