South Africa’s Energy Transition

Andrew Lawrence

• Publisher: Palgrave Pivot
• Year: 2019
• Print ISBN: 9783030189020
• eBook ISBN: 9783030189037
• Topic: Biological Sciences
• Subtopic: Energy Industry
• Index: Biological Sciences

This book provides a succinct overview of the evolution of policies addressing energy and climate justice in South Africa. Drawing on a range of analytical perspectives, including socio-technical studies, just transitions, and critical political economy, it explains why South Africa's energy transition from a coal-dependent, centralised power generation and distribution system has been so slow, and reveals the types of socio-political inequalities that persist across regimes and energy sources. Topics explored include critical approaches to the South African state and its state-owned energy provider, Eskom; the political ecologies of coal and water; the politics of non-renewable energy alternatives; as well as the trajectory and fate of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), the country's major renewable energy policy. The book concludes with reflections on alternative, neglected energy and development paths, suggesting how the political economy of South Africa's energy system could be further transformed for the better.

© The Author(s) 2020

A. LawrenceSouth Africa’s Energy TransitionProgressive Energy Policyhttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18903-7_1

Begin Abstract

1. Introduction

Andrew Lawrence¹

(1)

Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa

Andrew Lawrence

Email: [email protected]

Abstract

South Africa is typical among major fossil fuel producers for having failed to substantially transition toward renewable energy (RE) sources. Like many other countries, it shows a marked discrepancy between official government policies and commitments on decarbonisation, and actual progress in reducing reliance on coal. Several factors suggest nonetheless that South Africa (like many fossil fuel-dependent Global South countries) would benefit from a more rapid transition to RE sources: these include (1) the unreliability of coal, its fossil fuel-based power supply, constituting a major brake on economic development, particularly for rural areas where the infrastructure is lacking; (2) this supply’s associated pollution, which has a serious impact on local and regional health and well-being; (3) South Africa’s superior clean-energy endowments; and, not least; and (4) “resource curse” effects of coal (and the broader mining economy). For many years, price has not been a plausible explanation for the relative tardiness of South Africa’s energy transition, nor the exclusive determining factor. Rather, explanations need to refer to the country’s broader political (including international and global) contexts.

Keywords

Energy transitionRenewable energyCoalWindSolarResource curse

End Abstract

This book addresses a deceptively simple question: why has South Africa failed to substantially transition from polluting and more expensive fossil fuel reliance to cleaner, cheaper, and more abundant renewable energy (RE) sources such as wind and solar power? Admittedly, the same question can be posed to most other countries—in particular, those with major fossil fuel industries: this “non-event” is a global, rather than local, phenomenon. Hydrocarbons continue to provide 80% of global energy supplies. Electricity generation worldwide from oil, coal, and natural gas—although declining slightly in recent years to around two-thirds of total generation—remains far higher than its level of under 52% in 1986; whereas generation from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar and geothermal) has increased only slightly, from 19% since 1986 to about 23%. There remains substantial national variation: more than 40 countries (including at least a dozen in sub-Saharan Africa) generate most of their electricity from RE sources, including perhaps a dozen generating at or close to 100% from them; more than 30 others generate between a quarter and a half from RE sources.¹

This question nonetheless is particularly relevant to South Africa: its total domestic electricity generation capacity is 51.3 gigawatts (GW), of which the overwhelming majority, 91.2% (46.8 GW), comes from thermal (almost all coal-fired) power stations, with the 8.8% balance (4.5 GW, of which 3.8 GW is currently operational) installed RE capacity.² Despite recent increases in RE capacity, consumption from RE sources has increased more slowly. As Table 1.1 shows, South Africa’s RE consumption in 2015 was only a tenth of the world average; at less than 5% of generated electricity, it lags behind both Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and African averages.³

Table 1.1

Top ten coal producing/generating countries and their RE generation, 2015

Rank	Country	Coal production, 2015 MT	Coal-generated electricity^a (%)	Electricity from RE sources (%) (non-hydro + hydro)
1	China	3874.0	70.3	4.9 + 19.1 = 24
2	United States	906.9	34.2	7.4 + 5.8 = 13.2
3	Australia	644.0	62.9	8.3 + 5.3 = 13.6
4	India	537.6	75.3	5.4 + 10 = 15.4
5	Indonesia	458.0	55.8	4.8 + 5.9 = 10.7
6	Russia	357.6	14.8	0.1 + 15.8 = 15.9
7	South Africa	260.5	92.7	1.9 + 0.3 = 2.2
8	Germany	185.8	44.3	26.3 + 3 = 29.3
9	Poland	137.1	80.9	12.7 + 1.1 = 13.8
10	Kazakhstan	108.7	71.6	0.2 + 8.7 = 8.9
	WORLD	8277.9	39.2	6.8 + 15.9 = 22.7

^aWorld Bank (2018a, b, c)

“Coal” is indeed the deceptively simple answer to this question. For several years, South Africa has ranked seventh in the world for total amount of coal mined (and third for tons per capita), first among larger economies for the percentage of electricity generation dependent on coal, and conversely, last for the percentage of electricity generated from renewable energy sources including solar, wind, and hydroelectric generation (Table 1.1). Although coal’s rank among South Africa’s top ten exported commodities has slipped over the past decade, it remains high: in 2016, South Africa’s sales of 69 million tons of coal, at $4.57 billion, were its fourth most valuable mineral export, after gold ($20.7 billion), diamonds ($10.9 billion), and platinum ($8.53 billion), contributing 4.5% of export revenue.⁴ Notably, however, South Africa’s local sales of roughly 183 million tons of coal generated levels of revenue more than 20% higher than did coal exports.⁵

Price, however, is not a plausible explanation for the relative tardiness of South Africa’s energy transition. For several years, RE sources’ cost has fallen ever lower in comparison to coal generation—three years after the introduction of large-scale RE generation, they were 23% cheaper than new coal-based generation.⁶ Since then, they have become 40% cheaper.⁷ Although at R0.62/kWh, South Africa’s cost of wind and solar generation per kilowatt hour is still higher than RE costs in other middle- to low-income countries,⁸ there is no sign that the trend of RE electricity costs falling increasingly below those from fossil-fuel generation will let up in the foreseeable future. The latest available authoritative figures from Lazard show that the costs of unsubsidized, large-scale business utility-level solar and wind power fell in 2017, continuing the trend over the past decade, to levels that are now more than 50% below those of 2013 and thus lower than coal and gas generation costs as well as capital costs.⁹ The latent potential to increase the diversity of supply options would also strengthen energy security for households, firms, and for the country as a whole. Fuller explanations for South Africa’s energy politics rather should refer to—and can deepen understanding of—the...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Front Matter
• 1. Introduction
• 2. Competing Paradigms for Understanding Energy Transitions
• 3. Eskom and the Dual Character of the South African State
• 4. Non-RE Alternative Energies: Nuclear, Geothermal, Fracking and Offshore Gas
• 5. REIPPPP: Renewables’ Rise, or REIPPPP RIP?
• 6. Conclusion: Just an Energy Transition—Or a Just Transition?
• Back Matter