The European Union (EU) is one of the biggest economies in the world. As a large trader and investor, the EU is deeply integrated in the world economy. Despite an economic slowdown in recent years, productivity levels are still high. As a result, most EU citizens enjoy fairly high per capita incomes. Until a few years ago, the EU project was considered a very successful model of integration. The end of the Cold War provided new opportunities for Europe. The European elite implemented two ambitious projects: enlargement and the introduction of a single currency, the euro. This was a time when every country in Central and Eastern Europe wanted to join the EU and membership of EU institutions was considered important to increase prosperity and political stability.
In the last decade, however, the European elite has been struggling to deal with a series of crises. These include the Greek economic crisis, troubles in some of the eurozone economies, a conflict in Ukraine, a rise in populism, migration and the refugee influx, the British exit from the EU (Brexit), a stand-off in Catalonia and so on. In recent years, a series of terrorist attacks in Berlin, Brussels, Paris and elsewhere has also added new concerns for struggling European policy-makers. These terrorist attacks clearly show that instability in the geopolitical neighbourhood has started affecting Europe as well. The current political and security situation results from the EUâs economic difficulties, the failure of multiculturalism and partnering with the USA in its foreign policy adventures.
Europeans still play a very important role in some of the core institutions dealing with global economic and political governance. The EU and its member states have been central to climate change negotiations, for example. As a result of policy initiatives, Europe is playing a significant part in emerging green technologies. Traditionally, Europe has been one of the largest donors of development finance and a leading player in the global development architecture. Out of a total of 30 members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Developmentâs Development Assistance Committee, 24 are from Europe. Although the EU is normally seen by outsiders mainly an economic bloc, it has also started playing a significant role in international peace and security. The European influence was evident in the Iranian nuclear deal, for instance.
Despite this, the image of Europe in the Indian media since 2008 has not been very positive. It has been seen as struggling to deal with one crisis after another. This started with the sovereign debt crisis in Greece, which later became a crisis in the broader eurozone. Although the EU has been able to manage the crisis, the institutional structure based on a single monetary policy and 28 fiscal policies seems unsustainable. Since austerity measures were advocated, there was a decline in growth and many EU nations witnessed very high youth unemployment.
This has led to both right- and left-wing populism all over the continent. To some extent, elections in the Netherlands, France and the UK show that right-wing political parties have not been able to achieve the expected gains. Yet populist parties and leaders are now part of ruling coalitions in Austria and Italy. Some of them are already in control in Central and Eastern Europe. Even if populist leaders have not been able to win in countries such as France, right-wing political parties and populist leaders are still very active in many parts of Europe. As a result of a number of factors, which include the economic slowdown, a high influx of immigrants and refugees, and terrorist incidents, many of these parties will be able to find greater support in the coming years. Overall, however, the situation is not alarming and one can expect reasonable political stability in major countries such as France and Germany.
Of course, the EU has been a pioneer in the regional integration model. It has also promoted regional integration all over the world. The Ukrainian crisis, however, showed its limitations. The competitive integration attempts by both the EU and Russia created a crisis in Ukraine. Both the EU and Russia had devoted a lot of time and energy to building a strategic partnership. The Ukrainian crisis, however, resulted in damaging the strategic understanding with Russia built up over years. The European elite may not consider the Russian Federation as an enemy today. Yet Moscow and Brussels are no longer âstrategic partnersâ.
European policy-makers, along with Washington, have been deeply involved in many global conflicts, including in Afghanistan. Apart from destabilising governments in Iraq, Syria and Libya, these conflicts have produced a large number of internally and externally displaced people. To a significant extent, these conflicts have also been responsible for the current refugee crisis in Europe. It has been accepting immigrants for decades due to its own demographic profile, which has been characterized by declining birth rate and increase in life expectancy. In the present economic difficulties, however, immigrants are less welcome. Moreover, multiculturalism, where various cultures co-exist, has failed in Europe. And many in Europe see outsiders, particularly migrants from Muslim countries, as a serious social and security problem.
Due to internal social and economic marginalisation, hundreds of radicalised youth from Europe were also attracted to the Islamic State (ISIS) and have fought in places such as Iraq and Syria. Many of these radicalised young fighters are becoming a serious security threat, as shown by terrorist attacks in France and Belgium. Furthermore, there are fears that a few radical fighters might have sneaked in as part of a liberal refugee policy implemented in countries such as Germany. Recent terrorist incidents are putting serious pressure on the liberal political and social order of the continent (Sachdeva 2016).
The economic slowdown, the failure of multiculturalism and terrorist incidents have resulted in the rise of populism all across Europe. This is especially visible in Austria, Hungary and Poland. After Brexit and Donald Trumpâs victory in the USA, the right-wing National Front under Marine Le Pen in France was optimistic about the next major shake-up in Europe. There is still uncertainty about how Brexit will be organised. Any poorly organised deal may not just hurt the UK but also the EU itself. At this point, things are uncertain. Overall, the Brexit is a major setback for the European integration project and the EUâs global ambitions. However, if at the end of Brexit negotiations, both the EU and the UK are able to find some compromise on the integration of their markets and the movement of people, it may help the EU in the long run. There is also a possibility that after Brexit, the EU may be able to implement some of its more ambitious integration projects. A plan has already been laid for including all member states in the Schengen area, the eurozone and the banking union.
EU membership has increased from 15 states in 1995 to 28 today. With Brexit, it may come down to 27. No major enlargements are expected in the near future. Officially, countries such as Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are still looking to become members of the EU. Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo also have the potential to become official candidates. Given the way the political situation has developed in Turkey, along with tensions between Ankara and a few European capitals, Turkeyâs membership of the EU can be ruled out in the near future. Even if some small remaining successor states of the former Yugoslavia could become EU members in the next few years, they will not change the workings of the EU institutions in any significant way. After trying for almost two decades with the EU, Turkey is now building new alliances, including with Russia and Iran. As a result of these developments, it is becoming more complicated for the European elite to manage its security and immigration challenges. In addition, statements and policy announcements by US president Donald Trump have created new uncertainties about trade and security partnerships with the USA. His possible dealings with Russia have the potential to strain these ties further. Already there are signs of a trade war between the USA and the EU. Despite these difficulties, in 2016, a Global Strategy for the European Unionâs Foreign and Security Policy was announced. The idea has been to make the EU âmore effective in confronting energy security, migration, climate change, violent extremism, and hybrid warfareâ (EUGS 2016).
Similarly, the EU institutions, as well as the political and economic capacities of its member states, have shown enough resilience in the past to somehow muddle through many of these crises. This has been evident in dealing with the Gre...