Introduction
In 2013, People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping put forth two separate initiatives, the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) initiative (MSRI) and the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) plan, both integral components of the Chinese mega-project known as One Belt, One Road (OBOR). It is far from a foregone conclusion that China’s two ambitious plans will yield what Beijing wants them to deliver economically or politically or that both projects will be fully realized. Regardless, it is hard not to be captivated by the two schemes given their immense scale and potentially transformative effects on power hierarchies, global, regional, and subregional institutions, individual countries, and multinational corporations (MNCs). As well, top PRC decision-makers have made abundantly clear that OBOR is a top Chinese-government policy priority.1
To date, scholars have provided background on OBOR, assessed its fit with China’s grand strategy, and probed its links to China’s energy security. In addition, they have considered OBOR’s implications for the PRC’s bilateral relations and global security, examined the economic issues associated with China’s schemes, and judged OBOR’s narratives. Beyond this, they have opined on OBOR’s attractions, challenges, and significance.2 While the existing literature is useful in providing information about OBOR, it has diverse shortcomings. First, there are few monograph-length treatments and most works speak to OBOR as a whole even though the MSRI and SREB have their own unique features, players, and obstacles, which necessitate separate, in-depth discussions. To illustrate, China–India relations are a huge issue requiring detailed attention in studies of the MSRI, whereas China–Russia relations and Xinjiang are significant questions meriting extensive analysis in the case of SREB analyses. Second, many studies neglect the interaction of politics and economics, even though they will be, and are, closely intertwined and OBOR will have political and economic effects. Third, most studies overlook the role of subnational (e.g., Chinese provinces) and nonstate actors (e.g., MNCs) even though they are both objects of the MSRI and SREB and shapers of them.3 In light of these limitations, the Mr. & Mrs. S.H. Wong Center for the Study of Multinational Corporations organized a conference on “The Political Economy of the Maritime Silk Road Initiative and South Asia,” which was co-hosted with the School of Advanced International and Area Studies, East China Normal University, in November 2015. At the behest of the organizers, presenters offered papers related only to the MSRI and, moreover, narrow topics such as China, the MSRI, and Sri Lanka, or the MSRI-Indian business dynamic.
There are numerous theoretical rationales for studying the MSRI. One is that it can inform work on the political economy of national security which contemplates how economic forces influence state policies.4 Second, it can enhance our knowledge of the factors shaping China’s foreign policy and its implementation. Third, it can provide a mechanism for appreciating how geography molds and is molded by foreign policy.5 From a policy standpoint, the MSRI merits analysis because it entails the creation of international organizations, the reconfiguration of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR)’s infrastructure, and closer political ties between China and MSRI participants as well as a, potentially, greater leadership role for China.6 To paraphrase John Garver (see Chap. 2), the MSRI and associated schemes, which consist of interlinked, intermodal sea-land corridors, mean China will no longer be trapped in East Asia because with its “application of modern transportation technology … age-old geographic barriers … are collapsing” and China will be able to interact at greater distance, more intensively, and in a more sustained way than ever before.7 Turning to economics, we should study the MSRI because it will affect: aid; trade and investment flows; the growth rate of China and MSRI participants; and renminbi (RMB) internationalization. For businesses, it will raise new competitive challenges in the form of Chinese companies and “Chinese” goods going overseas.
Acknowledging that the MSRI is a work in process and that many things can change as it unfolds, this volume offers several key findings, some already recognized and others less well appreciated. One is that the MSRI has numerous economic and political purposes and that, on a related note, even if it does not have explicit political objectives there still are likely to be political consequences flowing from it. Regarding the latter, however, it is important to point out, as this volume shows, that the link between economic and politics is a contingent one and affected by numerous intervening factors. Another is that China faces a number of serious political and economic challenges in bringing its ambitious venture to fruition in South Asia. These challenges include India’s ambivalence (and even opposition), the need to coordinate government ministries and subnational actors (e.g., provinces), the troubled economic and political situation in some of its partner countries (e.g., Pakistan), the immense amount of money needed, and the risk that a successful MSRI may breed a backlash among partner and host countries. Yet another is that nonstate actors in China, MSRI participants, and MSRI non-participants are an important part of the story of the MSRI in South Asia.
The next section provides basic background information on the MSRI, delving into, among other things, its geographic features, its participants, and a number of actions China has already taken to advance it. The third part of this chapter delves into the initiative’s putative economic objectives and the obstacles China will face in realizing them. The fourth section considers the plan’s potential political goals and the challenges China will face in bringing them to fruition. The fifth part provides an overview of the chapters in the volume and assesses what they have to say about the future of the MSRI and its potential political and economic implications. The last section inter alia supplies some summary remarks, highlights various findings of interest to academics, business people, and policymakers, and identifies some potential...