Alternative Energy in the Middle East

G. Bahgat

• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
• Year: 2013
• ISBN:
  9781137264589
• Topic: Política y relaciones internacionales
• Subtopic: Política medioambiental y energética

The Middle East region holds the world's largest oil and natural gas proven reserves. Several Middle Eastern States are major oil producers and consumers. Given price fluctuations and environmental concerns many countries have sought to diversify their energy mix. The Middle East is no exception. Gawdat Bahgat analyzes the geopolitical, economic and strategic forces behind this diversification in the Middle East. He highlights the main advantages and disadvantages of each source of energy.

1

Introduction

For most of the modern era fossil fuels – oil, natural gas, and coal – have provided the lion’s share of global energy supplies. Their relative shares have fundamentally changed, but they have continued to dominate the energy mix in almost every country in the world. This trend is likely to prevail in the foreseeable future. However, other fuels, particularly nuclear power and renewable energy, such as that derived from wind and solar have attracted substantial attention and investments and are projected to provide an incremental share of supplies in the coming years and decades. According to a recent report by ExxonMobil oil, gas and coal will make up about 80 per cent of total energy consumption in 2040. Nuclear power will grow on average at about 2.2 per cent a year, a substantial increase, but lower than projections prior to the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan. Finally, wind, solar, and other renewable resources will see strong growth and account for about 4 per cent of global demand by 2040.¹

More than any other region in the world, the broad Middle East is blessed with substantial hydrocarbon resources. Together, Middle Eastern states hold approximately 52 per cent of the world’s total proven oil reserves and 42.4 per cent of proven gas reserves.² These huge reserves mean that the region is not likely to run out of oil or gas any time soon. This conclusion, however, does not guarantee the region’s energy security or economic prosperity. In recent years, a combination of population explosion, high rate of economic growth, and heavy government energy subsidies has led to a surge in energy consumption all over the Middle East. Indeed, the region has one of the highest energy consumption rates per capita in the world.

This surge in energy consumption has negatively impacted the region both environmentally and economically. Several Middle Eastern cities are among the most polluted in the world (largely due to the burning of cheap oil). At the same time, rising consumption means less oil and gas available for export. Despite efforts to diversify their economies away from oil and create other sources of national income, most Middle Eastern countries are still heavily dependent on oil (and to a lesser extent gas) revenues. This means that higher consumption leads to less export and shrinking revenues. These shrinking revenues would open the door to socio-economic and political uncertainties and turmoil.

In addition to these environmental and economic consequences, Middle Eastern leaders understand that oil and gas are finite resources. Like the rest of the world, most Middle Eastern countries have joined the global search for alternative sources of energy. The two most promising sources are nuclear power and renewable resources. In recent years several Middle Eastern governments have taken significant steps to utilize energy derived from alternative sources. In the short term, the Middle East region, like the rest of the world, is likely to remain dependent on oil and gas. However, in the long term, the development of alternative sources of energy (e.g., nuclear and renewables) is likely to enhance the region’s energy security, leave more oil and gas for export, and contribute to reducing pollution.

This chapter is divided into two parts. The first discusses the pros and cons of nuclear power and the second examines those of renewable sources. Like all other sources of energy, nuclear and renewables have their own advantages and disadvantages. In the coming years and decades oil and natural gas are likely to remain the more reliable sources of energy in the Middle East. The development of nuclear and renewables is likely, at least partly, to improve the region’s collective energy security. The underlying conclusion of this study is that the diversification of the energy mix and the enhancement of energy efficiency are the most effective strategies.

Nuclear power

The birth of civilian nuclear energy was marked by the first nuclear electricity obtained in a US nuclear laboratory in 1951 and the first nuclear power plant created by academician Igor I. Kurchatov in the Soviet Union in 1954.³ Since then nuclear power has been used in electricity generation as well as industrial and medical applications. The excitement and expansion of the first two decades of the nuclear era were replaced by virtual stagnation during most of the 1980s and 1990s. Since the dawn of the new millennium, however, the renewed interest in nuclear power has intensified in what has been dubbed the ‘nuclear renaissance’ – ambitious plans to build new nuclear plants or expand the life of existing ones. In 2010, 29 countries operated 441 plants, with a total capacity of 375 megawatts. These plants produced slightly less than 14 per cent of the world’s electricity supplies and 5.7 per cent of total primary energy. A further 60 plants, with a generating capacity of 58.6 megawatts, are currently under construction.⁴

This global interest in nuclear power can be explained by at least four overlapping developments. First, population growth and economic development in many countries have fuelled the demand for energy. This surge in demand has not been sufficiently met due to the volatility of oil and gas prices and some interruptions of supplies (i.e. Russia’s gas to Ukraine and Western Europe). The volatility of prices and uncertainty of supplies have underscored energy security vulnerability of several countries and the need to diversify their energy mix away from fossil fuels. Second, the growing concern about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels, has created renewed interest in the basically carbon-free nuclear power. In short, nuclear power is considered an important part of the global effort to address climate change. Third, since the dawn of the nuclear era, nuclear power has been utilized mainly in developed countries. It is little wonder that the initiation and development of nuclear programs have been seen in many under-developed and developing countries as symbols of technological advance. Finally, the improved performance of existing reactors has alleviated the concern some countries have over the security and reliability of nuclear power. In the last few decades nuclear power has been proven and seen as a non-intermittent and readily expandable source of energy.

These recent positive developments should not be overestimated. Nuclear power has continued to face daunting challenges and risks that need to be addressed. The list includes the high construction costs, safety, waste, and the close connection between civilian nuclear power and military applications. These largely unresolved hurdles have cast a doubt on the prospects of a nuclear renaissance. Thus, many countries have expressed interest in diversifying their energy mix away from fossil fuels but a few have articulated specific plans and concrete steps to overcome the serious uncertainties regarding nuclear energy.

Since the early 2000s a large number of Middle Eastern countries, and many others all over the world particularly in Asia, have expressed interest in establishing and developing nuclear programs. Like other regions, environmental, financial, and strategic concerns are driving nuclear interest in the Middle East. Due to heavy energy subsidies, many Middle Eastern cities are among the most polluted in the world. Replacing oil by nuclear power for generating electricity and water desalinization would release more oil for export and increase national revenues. Finally, Arabs’ and Turks’ interest in nuclear power can be seen as a potential hedging strategy against Iran’s nuclear program. The progress Iran has achieved in advancing its own nuclear program has both galvanized its Arab and Turkish neighbours into launching their own programs and made it easier for them to justify doing so.⁵ The relative weight of each drive varies from one Middle Eastern country to another. In addition, how they will address the uncertainties surrounding nuclear power is yet to be spelled out. What is certain is that the growing interest in nuclear power in the Middle East has the potential to drastically alter the security and strategic landscape in the entire region with significant implications worldwide.

Challenge # 1: nuclear safety

The full utilization of nuclear power, and indeed its future, depends, to a large extent, on public perception and public confidence in the safety of nuclear plants. The threats to safety come mainly from at least three sources: (1) unintended technical accidents caused by equipment failure or human errors, (2) natural disaster such as earthquake or tsunami, and/or (3) potential planned terrorist attacks. In order to address these challenges several initiatives at national, regional, and international levels have been taken. As a result, nuclear safety has substantially improved. However, the risk of an accident or terrorist attack is not zero. Furthermore, these measures to improve safety have contributed to the rising of plant construction and operation.

The most serious nuclear accidents due to mechanical failure are the Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979 and the Chernobyl disaster in the former Soviet Union in 1986. In the Three Mile Island nuclear plant a cooling malfunction caused part of the core to melt in the # 2 reactor. Some radioactive gas was released a couple of days after the accident, but not enough to cause any dose above background levels to local residents. There were no injuries or adverse health effects from the accident.⁶ The Chernobyl disaster was the product of a flawed Soviet reactor design coupled with serious mistakes made by the plant operators. Acute radiation syndrome was diagnosed in 237 people on-site and those involved with the clean-up. A large proportion of childhood thyroid cancers diagnosed since the accident is likely to be due to intake of radioactive iodine fallout. Further, large areas of Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, and beyond were contaminated to varying degrees.⁷ These two accidents dealt a heavy blow to the expansion of nuclear power not only in the two respective nations but all over the world. In the ensuing years the construction of new plants came to a halt and some countries closed, or considered closing, their nuclear reactors.

The Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011 in Japan resulted in a series of equipment failures, nuclear meltdowns, and releases of radioactive materials at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. There were no immediate deaths due to direct radiation exposures. In December 2011 Japanese authorities declared the plant to be stable, though it would take decades to de-contaminate the surrounding areas. This disaster has raised doubt and uncertainty over the future of nuclear power. Prior to this tragedy, it appeared that the world had successfully overcome the ‘Chernobyl syndrome’.⁸ There has not been a universal response. Rather, some countries, such as Germany, have decided to suspend or phase out their nuclear reactors, while others (such as Russia, China, and India) have not changed their ambitious plans to expand their nuclear programs.

On the positive side, international efforts to promote cooperation and improve safety have intensified. For example, the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) was established in 1979 as a not-for-profit organization headquartered in Georgia in the United States. The INPO conducts corporate evaluations that focus on safety and reliability. It also provides training and support for nuclear power professionals. Through information exchange and publications, the INPO communicates lessons learned and best practices throughout the nuclear power industry. Finally, at the request of individual nuclear-electricity-generating facilities, the INPO provides assistance with specific technical or management issues in areas related to plant operation and support.⁹ Similarly, the London-based World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) was founded in 1989. Its mission is to maximize the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants worldwide by working with other countries to assess benchmark and improve performance through mutual support, exchange of information, and emulation of best practices.¹⁰

Equally important, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has actively sought to create a universal, effective, and transparent network for sharing operating experience and promoting communication about design deficiencies, human errors, and near misses. The IAEA jointly with the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) operates an Incident Reporting System (IRS). Through IRS, information is collected from around the world on unusual events in nuclear power plants that may be important for safety or accident prevention and actions. The information is then assessed, analysed, and fed back to operators to prevent similar occurrences at other plants. The ultimate objective is reducing the frequency and severity of safety significant unusual events at nuclear power plants.¹¹

A close examination of nuclear accidents, caused either by nature or human error, suggests that the few ones that had already occurred had significant impact on nuclear industry worldwide. Global public perception and confidence play a key role in launching and developing nuclear programs. The experience of the last several decades indicates that significant improvements have been made. As a result, nuclear plants are much safer today than they were a few decades ago. However, these safety improvements have added additional costs to nuclear plants. These safety improvements and additional costs aside, the risk of major nuclear accidents is not zero and should not be ruled out.

Terrorist threats to nuclear plants are multi-dimensional. A terrorist sabotage can cause a major radioactive release. Terrorists can seek to obtain nuclear material or device. Not surprisingly, the protection of nuclear installations has always been a major concern. The revelations in recent years that some terrorist organizations considered crashing a jumbo jet in a nuclear plant have heightened the alarm.

Several initiatives have been taken to counter these threats. Since the early 1990s the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program and similar efforts have succeeded in securing nuclear material in dozens of sites in the former Soviet Union and elsewhere. In a landmark ...