Strategies for Preventing Terrorism

T. Bjorgo, Kenneth A. Loparo, Tore Bjørgo

• Publisher: Palgrave Pivot
• Year: 2013
• Print ISBN: 9781137355072
• eBook ISBN: 9781137355089
• Topic: Social Sciences
• Subtopic: International Relations
• Index: Social Sciences

This innovative new book aims to put society's fight against terrorism into a comprehensive crime prevention perspective with a clear, understandable theoretical foundation, developing a general model for the prevention of crime which is, in this book, applied to terrorism.

Part I

A Theory for Practice

1

Introduction

Abstract: This study argues that terrorist violence is a serious form of crime and should be treated as such, applying the full repertoire of crime prevention mechanisms and measures. The Introduction outlines the theoretical model, consisting of nine different preventive mechanisms. To serve as a basis for crime prevention strategies, we need to specify these generic mechanisms for each particular crime type, asking: what kinds of measures can be used to activate these mechanisms, who will be the principal actors in charge of implementing the measures, and who are the target groups for the measures. And further, what are the strengths and weaknesses, as well as the limitations and side effects, of the various measures used to activate the preventive mechanisms. In the following chapters, this model of crime prevention is applied to the crime type terrorism.

Keywords: counter-terrorism; crime prevention; means; measure; preventive mechanism; preventive model; strategy

Bjørgo, Tore. Strategies for Preventing Terrorism. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
DOI: 10.1057/9781137355089.

The primary objective of counter-terrorism is to prevent acts of terrorism from taking place and from causing harm to people, property and society. This study aims to clarify the basic strategies that can be employed to prevent the carrying out of acts of terrorism. Prevention is used here in a broad sense: i.e. preventing (new) acts of terrorism from occurring in the future or reducing the number and severity of such acts. The objective is to develop a comprehensive model for preventing terrorism in which various sub-strategies can interact and complement each other, and in which the prevention roles performed by different actors within the various sub-strategies are clarified. Another goal is for the model to be as intuitive and self-evident as possible.

The need for more comprehensive thinking with regard to fighting terrorism became clear in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001. For the first five years, the Bush administration’s War on Terror one-sidedly focused on strategies based on the use of military force, repression and control.¹ This undermined more long-term strategies that were aiming at doing something about the factors that give rise to and sustain terrorism in a society, and why individuals and groups become radicalised and allow themselves to be recruited for terrorist activities. Some critics of the “War on Terror” line have asserted that only social and political changes and measures can, at a more fundamental level, eliminate or reduce the root causes of terrorism and that everything else is just treating the symptoms. However, even though this argument may have its merits it usually takes a long time before such changes result in a reduction or elimination of terrorism. In the intervening period acute threat situations will arise in which it will be necessary to prevent terrorist acts from taking place. The challenge therefore is to find a balance and constructive synergy between the short-term, repressive and controlling strategies and the more long-term, constructive strategies. This study attempts to contribute to this. At the same time, the study also aims at developing a more comprehensive model of crime prevention – a generic model which can be applied to most types of crime.

However, a word of caution is needed: There is no magic silver bullet which can eradicate terrorism, as there is none for crime in general. The history of terrorism teaches us that this phenomenon – in different shapes and manifestations – has been with humanity for a long time, and will be with us in the future. It is a problem we have to learn to live with and handle in sensible ways (English 2009: 132–133). It is futile to declare, as President G.W. Bush did after 9–11, that “Our War on Terror … will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated” (quoted in Guelke 2006: 32). The greatest danger posed by terrorists is their capacity to provoke ill-judged, extraordinary and counter-productive state responses, rather than the relatively limited violent direct actions they are able to produce themselves (English 2009: 119; Hobsbawn 2007: 132, 152–3). However, through considered and comprehensive policies, specific terrorist campaigns may be contained, reduced or brought to an end (Richardson 2006: 10–11). Emerging problems of violent extremism can sometimes be nipped in the bud before they develop into full-fledged terrorism.

This book argues that a broad and holistic preventive approach, employing a multiple of preventive mechanisms and measures, will construct more barriers that can stop potential terrorists and prevent terrorist acts. This means that every measure alone does not need to be as heavy for the total effect to produce adequate protection. This broad and holistic approach may serve to lighten the pressure from the more repressive prevention measures and to reduce the negative side effects.

Definitions of concepts and analytical approaches

This study will analyse strategies for preventing or reducing acts of terrorism by describing the different mechanisms that can bring about such a reduction. The study describes nine different preventive mechanisms. These can be specified into nine strategy components or sub-strategies, which together constitute a single comprehensive, overall strategy for preventing terrorism. It is by specifying for one specific crime type (e.g. a particular form of terrorism) which measures can be used to activate each of the mechanisms that we may move from a generic model of crime prevention into a strategy for reducing that specific crime problem. The main questions are: which mechanisms are the different preventive sub-strategies based on, what kinds of measures can be used to activate these mechanisms, who will be the principal actors in charge of implementing the measures, and who are the target groups for the measures. The study also examines the strengths and weaknesses, as well as the limitations and side effects, of the various measures used to activate the preventive mechanisms. Finally, it discusses the need to balance and coordinate the various strategies and measures to ensure they complement and reinforce each other as much as possible, rather than the short-term and long-term strategies undermining and counteracting each other. This study looks only at crisis management, harm reduction or investigations in the aftermath of a terrorist incident in those contexts where these aspects may also have preventive effects.

Key analytical terms in this study are terrorism, prevention, strategy, mechanisms and measures. Terrorism can be seen as a set of strategies for action in which violence and threats of violence are systematically used to create a state of fear, gain attention for a cause, or coerce someone into giving in to certain demands, and achieve an effect on people and institutions other than just the direct victim or target of the violent act.² In this context, prevention refers to reducing future acts of terrorism or other crimes, or reducing the harmful consequences of such acts, by proactive measures. Strategy is here about putting the available measures and resources into an action plan to achieve a specified effect, e.g. to reduce a specified actor’s capacity to carry out specific actions, such as acts of terrorism. Strategies are therefore based on conceptions of certain mechanisms – a process in which some factors or means influence other elements and bring about a specific effect (Elster 1998; Eck 2005: 707–712; Tilley 2009: 4–6). In other words, a preventive mechanism is an explanatory model which is intended to describe how certain measures can create a specific effect or outcome. The theory behind the social mechanism concept and how it can be applied in crime prevention is discussed in more detail below.

Measures are the methods or deliberate courses of action implemented to activate a specific mechanism and through this they achieve an intended effect. However, it is important to note that such measures may have unintended side effects as they may also activate mechanisms other than the intended ones (Elster 1998). For example, heavy-handed repressive measures to deter violent activism or incapacitate activists may provoke anger and increase recruitment to violent extremist groups. It is important to differentiate between a strategy/mechanism and the measures used to activate it. The same measures (e.g. arrest) can trigger different mechanisms (e.g. deterrence, disruption or incapacitation) and thus be included in several prevention strategies at the same time, but have a different preventive function in each of these strategies. Similarly, different measures can activate the same mechanisms, e.g. both arrest and exposure in the media can help to disrupt a terror plot. Another reason why it is important to distinguish between measures, preventive mechanisms and effects is that politicians or other prevention actors have a tendency, based on their interests or ideological standpoints, to promote one specific type of measure. This is often done without a clear conception of how this particular measure will bring about the desired outcome, and without evaluating the potential negative side effects. The visibility of the measures often becomes more important than the results they produce and how the measures might produce these results.³

Theoretical considerations on preventive mechanisms

A mechanism is an explanatory model which is intended to explain which causal relationships we regard as being active, or how a measure brings about an outcome (Hedstrøm & Swedberg 1998: 7–9, 22–23; Elster 1998). Social mechanisms are usually not directly observable. Instead it is rather a postulate based on a theory that establishes the probability of how something affects something else. Social mechanisms do not follow laws of physical necessity: they are more likely to work under some conditions and less likely under others.

One example of this is the assumption that the threat of punishment deters individuals from committing crimes because they (presumably) will make a rational assessment, weighting up the costs against any benefits, which in turn can reduce motivation. The actual mechanism here is a mental process – a calculation that takes place in the heads of the actors. However, it is far from certain that everyone will end up making the same decision. Other mechanisms may be generated by specific types of social interaction such as pressure to conform and loyalty within an extremist group, which may result in individuals taking part in actions they would normally not want to get involved in. Some mechanisms lie in the interaction between individuals and their social or physical environment and may be more directly observable. For example, a motivated terrorist may be deprived of the capacity to commit an act of terrorism by detaining him behind prison walls, which effectively prevents him from carrying out acts of terror in society. Correspondingly, a rifle bullet fired by a police sniper can prevent a terrorist from achieving his intention of killing a hostage or stopping him in the act of committing a massacre. In these cases the preventive mechanism is relatively observable and tangible. While some types of mechanism can be abstract or mental, other types of mechanism can be more concrete and observable.

Another example from the field of reducing car accidents shows that preventive mechanisms can also be both mental and physical, and that ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title
• Part I  A Theory for Practice
• Part II  The Preventive Mechanisms Applied
• Bibliography
• Index