North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era

A New International Security Dilemma

Kenneth A. Loparo, Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.

• Publisher: Palgrave Pivot
• Year: 2014
• Print ISBN: 9781137400062
• eBook ISBN: 9781137400079
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Asian Politics
• Index: Politics & International Relations

This study is one of the very first to analyze North Korea and the challenges that it presents to international security and community, by looking through the prism of the first two years of the Kim Jong-un regime.

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North Korea and Kim Jong-un: Analysis of a New Era in the Kim Dynasty

Abstract: This chapter will offer an introduction to a study designed to analyze how the initial years of the Kim Jong-un regime continued the threats that North Korea posed (and poses) to the region and the nation-states who have an interest in it – maintaining the rogue state identity of his country that his father and grandfather began. This chapter will give the reader a baseline of analysis for a work that focuses on several issues and concepts vital for the security of the region (and of those nation-states with an interest in it) as long as the DPRK (North Korea) continues to exist as a viable nation.

Keywords: Conflict analysis; DPRK; Kim Jong-un

Bechtol, Bruce E., Jr. North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era: A New International Security Dilemma. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014. DOI: 10.1057/9781137400079.0006.

North Korea has – for almost the entire time of its existence – been a true enigma to the West. It is not only because of the unique brand of communism that Kim Il-sung, his son, and now his grandson have epitomized, but it is also because the culture and society of Koreans (North and South) is so foreign to those who live outside of East Asia. While North Korea has presented a profound security dilemma for both the region and many nation-states outside of East Asia (because of issues such as proliferation), many questions arose about the regime following the death of its long-time leader Kim Jong-il (1994–2011).¹ There was speculation that his son, Kim Jong-un, would bring about “reform” – be it economic or otherwise – because of the fact that he had spent most of his childhood and teenage years in private school in Switzerland, and was thus “exposed to Western values.”² There was also a great deal of speculation that the “third Kim” may change the role of key institutions in the country, such as the military, the party, and/or the security services.³ Finally, perhaps the most speculation (which continues to exist) revolved around how stable the government in North Korea would be (and is) under a very young leader, who lacked (and continues to lack) a great deal of credibility within the key institutions and the elite who run the country.⁴ Thus, the goal of this book will be to address the key issues and questions (and others) outlined above. It has now been more than two years since Kim Jong-il died (as of the publication of this volume). We (analysts, scholars, policy makers, reporters, pundits) have now had a significant amount of time to analyze and assess the key factors that relate to the Kim Jong-un regime.

Framework of analysis

This volume will be a study designed to analyze how the initial years of the Kim Jong-un regime continued the threats that North Korea posed (and poses) to the region and the nation-states who have an interest in it – maintaining the threatening posture and rogue state activities that his father began. My book will focus on several key issues that will remain important for the region (and for the United States) as long as North Korea continues to exist as an independent nation. Thus, the key issues I will analyze (with assessments and policy recommendations offered) will be:

1 The North Korean military in the Kim Jong-un era;

2 DPRK provocations: deterring the cycle of violence;

3 Planning for the future: how South Korea and the USA will deal with North Korean collapse or internal crisis; and

4 The ROK (South Korean) military: ominous future scenarios make readiness and capabilities vital policy priorities.

It is my belief that by analyzing these four key factors the reader will be able to come to an understanding of how Kim Jong-un’s government in its first two years was able to continue to function, present a threat to its neighbors, and attempt to guarantee its continued existence through a very shaky (far more than many realize) regime succession process – a process designed to bring about the stabilization of the government now that Kim Jong-il has passed from the scene. The issue of regime stabilization also involves how the United States and its allies will plan for the possible collapse of the current North Korean regime.⁵ And along those lines, one cannot address the first three factors without bringing in the fourth factor – the readiness and capabilities of the ROK (South Korean) military, and the assessed strength and preparedness of the ROK-US alliance. Understanding how Seoul and its allies (especially its key military ally, the United States) will cope with the numerous challenges (particularly military challenges) from the Kim Jong-un regime is just as important as understanding what those challenges are.

This book is unique because it specifically addresses the beginning of the Kim Jong-un era from a national security perspective. It is the first study to combine all of the issues discussed in this book with an eye on how the recent past can influence the immediate and more distant future (there have been almost no books published to date on the Kim Jong-un regime). There have been very few in-depth studies about North Korea’s conventional military forces (or updates based on the death of Kim Jong-il) published in the United States (and fewer studies that were actually accurate or detailed). In addition, there have been almost no studies regarding North Korean repeated, and often unpredictable, violent provocations. We are now in the throes of the third leader (a very young and inexperienced leader) from the Kim family – now in charge of the DPRK. Because of this, almost all of the issues are directly related to North Korea’s succession process (which, despite the opinions of some, is still incomplete because Kim Jong-un continues to have a weak power base), the instability of the new government, and the very real possibility that it may collapse in the future.⁶ By addressing how North Korea poses challenges in all of these issues at the beginning of the Kim Jong-un era (the first two years), this work will present the reader with evidence that will lead to important assessments about what to expect for the future of a North Korea that now is in the throes of its third “Kim” in the line of Kim’s that have ruled the country as if it was their own private (communist) kingdom since 1948.

Research strategies and sources

Many scholars on both sides of the Pacific (and in Europe) have written on North Korea in recent years. These works have often been quite useful, and have added to the debate and discourse about some very important international security issues. Many of these works, however, have focused more on theory than actual issues and concepts. In addition, there have been works that have focused on the ROK-US alliance – but most of these books have not focused on the realities of facing the North Korean threat. Almost without exception, to date (2014) very few books have addressed how these issues – or other issues that are now different under the Kim Jong-un regime – affect international security, and if so, how. Some key examples of the types of research and publications on North Korea in recent years include:⁷

1 The key issues surrounding North Korea’s nuclear program – mostly from a political science perspective.

2 The structure and motivations for the DPRK (North Korean) government.

3 DPRK foreign and military policy (largely without addressing a connection to actual military capabilities).

4 Issues and challenges for the North Korean economy.

5 The ROK-US alliance (often without addressing how this ties into the ROK military and the issues and challenges it faces from its neighbor to the North).

6 The commonalities and dealings between the two Koreas.

Many of the works that I have referenced are important, but there has been almost no scholarship on how important international security issues have evolved (or not – or slowly) during the Kim Jong-un regime. This will be a new – and I believe important – factor that will provide the reader with new knowledge and detailed analysis. It will be key to addressing how the North Korean conventional threats have evolved and continued to develop key capabilities between 2011 and 2013. It will also be important to analyze how the nuclear program has continued to develop – and who the nuclear technology is being proliferated to. Missiles (a key platform for weapon of mass destruction [WMD]) will also be an important factor in my analysis. I will tie the building and purging of personal alliances into the military factor because the military is a key institution in the country, not only as an external threat to North Korea’s neighbors, but also as an internal source of leadership and management within the country that has traditionally been used by the Kim family regime to run it. It will thus be important to address what many have called upheaval within the leadership of the North Korean military – and how (if at all) it has affected its capabilities and readiness, but perhaps more importantly, how it reflects Kim Jong-un’s actual power over his own military forces. Is North Korea’s military still ready for the unlikely but still possible full-scale war that all parties want to avoid? And perhaps as importantly, is Kim Jong-un as capable as his father was when it comes to making key military decisions?

Understanding the readiness and capabilities of the North Korean military is important, but it is also important to bring that into documented events. Thus, it will be important to address a key issue – preventing military provocations. Military provocations have proven to be a threat that has disrupted trust in South Korea’s military and its government, and measures taken to deter or defend against these violent events are key national security issue for Seoul. Another key national security issue for Seoul is the possibility of regime collapse. In fact, this issue is likely to be equally as important to prepare for as a full-scale war (and much more likely). Because of the importance of this issue it will be important to address how not only Seoul and Washington, but the international community, can potentially prepare for it. On top of all of these issues and questions is the factor of the South Korean military. Is the South Korean military doing the things it needs to do to prepare for a very uncertain future?

This book is unique because it will analyze the first two years of key challenges the international community has faced (and continues to face) in the Kim Jong-un era from an international security perspective. It will also be unique because it combines the four key factors that I have outlined above in an effort to show the realities of the evolving North Korean threat. As I discuss how North Korea has continued to pose challenges to international security and stability in East Asia, I will also bring in evidence that will lead to key assessments about what to expect in the future from a government and a regime that still leaves us with many unanswered questions more than two years into Kim Jong-un’s leadership of the country.

My research for this book was diverse and by its very nature based on a wide variety of sources. These sources include, but are not limited to, discussions and interviews with experts and pundits on both sides of the Pacific. It also includes books and other studies by experts on the factors I will analyze. Other sources include papers and presentations from conferences and symposia, in addition to my analysis of speeches from policy makers and government officials in both South Korea and the United States (as well as elsewhere). Because of the “current affairs” aspect of this work, I use sources such as press releases, press reports, and press conferences, US and South Korean government reports, white papers, and legislative testimony, declassified defector reports, and speeches and statements by policy makers with an interest in the region. Finally, I have also made use of papers, reports, and special releases by public policy institutes, government agencies, think tanks, and universities – largely in the United States and in East Asia (particularly South Korea), but also elsewhere.

It is my hope that this work will be useful for those with an interest in international security policy, international relations, US, South Korean, and North Korean foreign and defense policy, and Korean security issues. This book is intended to show how the first years of the Kim Jong-un era are likely to tell us many things about what the future holds. Thus the assessments made are likely to give readers an opportunity to form perspectives on North Korea’s potential threats and challenges. As such, lessons learned from this analysis will potentially be important for military planning, statecraft, scholarship, or general knowledge for anyone with an interest in the region.

Outline of chapters

In Chapter 2, I will address several key issues and challenges that have occurred in the North Korean military since Kim Jong-un has taken over as the leader in North Korea. There have been numerous issues relating to strife in the North Korean military since December 2011 (and...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title
• 1  North Korea and Kim Jong-un: Analysis of a New Era in the Kim Dynasty
• 2  The North Korean Military in the Kim Jong-un Era
• 3  DPRK Provocations: Deterring the Cycle of Violence
• 4  Planning for the Future: How South Korea and the USA Will Deal with North Korean Collapse or Internal Crisis
• 5  The ROK Military: Ominous Future Scenarios Make Readiness and Capabilities Vital Policy Priorities
• 6  Conclusion
• Selected Bibliography
• Index