The 2018 election was the first after a heavily contested 2016 campaign that witnessed the surprise election of a political novice to the White House. After two years in office, Donald Trump, conservative hero to his fervent supporters and gangster fascist to his fiercest critics, became an even more polarizing and dominant presence in U.S. politics than recent presidents. Trump was the central figure in the 2018 campaign where Democrats had not been as enthusiastic in a midterm election since 2006.
This book examines three neighboring and competitive House races in Central New York, districts 19, 22, and 24, which analysts believed were an important component to Democratic efforts to retake the House. Each district was home to a Republican incumbent seeking to navigate the Trump presidency. The respective campaigns reflected the division and dysfunction that has come to define U.S. politics, including fundamentally different perceptions of healthcare, taxes, and immigration, to animosity surrounding race and the resistance, to āfake newsā and the personal style of politics Trump has popularized.
In the end, the outcome of these races exhibited how closely aligning with President Trump was more hurtful than helpful for Republicans. Trump was a boon for Democratic candidates, even ones who hardly mentioned him. More subtly, Trumpās efforts to remake the Republican Party in his image have not been uniformly embraced in more moderately conservative parts of the country, such as Upstate New York.
National Climate
Open seats are typically closely contested. There were over 50 open seats in 2018, a record amount.1 There was also little doubt that most incumbents would be reelected, per historical norms. This was the case for nearly 90 percent of House incumbents in 2018, which is slightly lower than historical norms, while illustrating the enduring strength of incumbency advantage. Incumbents typically enjoy several electoral benefits, including increased name recognition, fundraising advantages, franking privileges, and greater ability to deter quality challengers from running.2 Though certainly advantageous, incumbency does not guarantee electoral success.
House Republicans faced a highly unfavorable national climate in 2018. The presidentās party has lost an average of 25 House seats during midterm elections since 1946. The party of presidents polling under 50 percent, as President Trump did consistently during his first two years in office, loses an average of 37 seats.3 Only twice has the presidentās party gained seats. Both were exceptional situations. In 1998, Bill Clinton was impeached by House Republicans, and in 2002 George W. Bush led the immediate response to the 9/11 attacks. Both had approval ratings over 60 percent, and gains were modest, five and six seats, respectively. There was no doubt that some House GOP incumbents would be vulnerable in 2018. The question was who, and where this vulnerability would emerge.
Swing Districts
Swing districts are pivotal i...